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All bets are on!

(306 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

Anniebach Fri 01-May-15 10:10:54

A second election later this year ? I do telephone canvassing and at the start of the campaign UKIP was brought up in so many conversations , now a fear / dislike of Scotland has become the major concern and is the reason for the increase of support for the conservatives with some going back to the Libs

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 10:14:40

I find it quite alarming that Cameron and Milliband will be (as we speak) working out who they could most tolerate to "get into bed with".

The way things are looking is we might aswell just share out the seats equally between everyone and have done with it.

At the risk of being "attacked" I am not happy about the SNP having any say in English issues. UK issues are obvioulsy fine as we are all part of the UK afterall, but not issues that just effect England.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 10:15:32

annie are you in Wales? If there is a hung parliament who of the Welsh parties will support whom?

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 10:18:19

gilly they say they won't get involved with English issues, I suppose that the incumbent government could pass some sort of law to insure that - although not sure if that is possible.

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 10:26:41

I think a law would have to be passed very quickly whitewave but the problem would be if SNP are in a government role surely they would vote against that very law?

I am more than happy for MP's from all over the UK to vote on all UK issues. That is the way it should be. I am dead against MP's who have only Scottish (or Welsh) issues at heart to vote on issues only effecting the English.

grumppa Fri 01-May-15 10:37:57

Roll on the Con/Lab coalition.

J52 Fri 01-May-15 10:39:39

I have found this the most interesting election in years. As you have pointed out Whitewave, the end result could be something this country's parliament has never seen.

Maybe it will herald a different voting system? x

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 10:40:54

Yes that would be great wouldn't it pompa ? Can you imagine an Ed n' Dave "love in"?

"after you Dave"........ "no, after you Ed" "no Dave I insist"..........

grin

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 10:42:39

Sorry. I don't know my arse from my elbow grumppa from my pompa grin

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 10:43:29

Good isn't it? Not sure if I will stay up though as I will be voting Labour and don't think that I will have anything to celebrate hmm Don't see any point in spending the night feeling glum.

GillT57 Fri 01-May-15 10:55:19

Oh I am going to stay up and watch it unfold, I love to see the crestfallen faces when seats are lost! Also all the speculation about who will go into coalition with who is quite interesting think. I shall write a note to my employer (myself) asking for the morning of Friday off. For what it is worth, of the 3 party leaders being interviewed by the QT audience in Leeds last night, I thought that Nick Clegg came out as the most genuine. Hmm

soontobe Fri 01-May-15 10:58:13

I plan to go to bed after the exit polls, as after that, they spend the next 2 or 3 hours ruminating over the same 6 results. Then get up and have a look.

soontobe Fri 01-May-15 11:01:10

Who are the others made up of?
For purposes of coalition, they become important. I didnt realise there were so many others.

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 11:20:46

Well I am not really sure so perhaps someone will tell us but there are some Irish bods like the DUP and others also presumably Welsh bods plus not sure.

I may stay until the swing one way or the other is established and if it is to the Tories which seems possible then totter off to bed but if to the Labour - unlikely - then stay up and get pleased!!!

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 11:22:09

Any Irish Grans? Could they tell us who is who in Northern Ireland please and who they are likely to support?

gillybob Fri 01-May-15 11:32:31

I certainly won't be staying up to watch any of it. Can't see the point.

Same as, same as, same as.

soontobe Fri 01-May-15 11:36:19

I am guessing, that if deals are done, it matters quite a bit on the personality of who got a particular seat in a minor party, as well as which party.

POGS Fri 01-May-15 11:39:15

Well , I am wondering whether Miliband saying he will categorically not do any deals with the SNP was brave or foolish.. confused

He has stated Labour will not go into any formal coalition with the SNP , will not enter into a supply and confidence deal with the SNP, he would rather not take the keys to No 10 than do deal with the SNP.

I don't believe a word of it .

whitewave Fri 01-May-15 11:44:49

Well if he does he will have a large majority - bigger than the Tories can muster! But I am not sure.

I do think however that he was talking to the Scottish vote. It would appear that the SNP will almost certainly get all Scottish seats and I think what he was trying to argue is that "Don't assume that by voting SNP the Labour party will form a coalition with them" which implies that if they vote SNP there will almost certainly be a Tory government which is something the Scots abhore.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 11:48:31

I only hope that SNP don't do nearly as well as they think they will. They certainly don't speak for all of Scotland as was evidenced by the result of the referendum. Its so irritating to hear them talk (however guardedly) of there being another referendum. If they had won they certainly wouldn't countenance a rerun. Grrr!
We were just talking this morning about a potential Lab/Con govt! That would be entertaining if the running of our country wasn't so important. A hung parliament and/or rerunning the election will only cause more economic decline due to the uncertainty. Poor old GB. Sigh. My Dad used to wear a black tie after an election that didn't go the way he had hoped. He said he was in mourning for his country. I'm looking out a black arm band myself right now!

GillT57 Fri 01-May-15 11:49:46

Many of the official political pundits such as Jeremy Paxman have described this as a boring election campaign, and I suppose from the point of no real clangers being dropped or skeletons popping out of closets, it is. But, I think the interesting bit will be as the result unfolds and the horse trading starts and all the party faithful (of all parties) start frantically backtracking and pretending to be pleased by the result. Terrific stuff. At the risk of offending some people on GN, I am hoping to see disappointed faces from Salmond and Farage.

J52 Fri 01-May-15 11:52:48

Todays polls showing a Tory lead, could of course backfire, by Labour voters turning out to vote and Tories becoming complacent.

Not taking sides, just saying!! My vote is secret! x

soontobe Fri 01-May-15 11:54:44

POGS. I dont either.
Even if he means it now, doesnt mean that he isnt go to feel differently afterwards.
A lot of people do not not thier own mind until the situation actually arises.

Jane10 Fri 01-May-15 11:54:51

GillT57 you certainly aren't offending me!