IDK, but I suspect that reconciliation only works if one or both parties change in some way or other. Either they decide not to repeat behaviors that offended the other person anymore or the other person decides to accept or ignore these behaviors. If neither of those things happen, then, IMO, they are almost bound to end up CO again.
Ive learned on MN that the 1st CO is often just a TO (time out), where they give themselves some space to think things over and let the other party (hopefully) think things over, too. Then, after a while, they may be ready to reach out and try again. But if nothing changes, there may be more TOs or maybe a total CO. I don't get the impression that there is a definite formula for when to do a complete CO. But it seems to me that by the third - or in some cases, the 2nd -TO, that's when these young people tend to go totally NC. Then again, Ive heard of some people having several TOs over the years before one or both sides choose to go NC, period.