Gransnet forums

News & politics

What will the UK look like with the new change in economics?

(177 Posts)
GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 09:06:19

When Mrs Thatcher and her government, voted in by a mass of working people, decided to fundamentally change our economy from a goods-based one to so-called service-based economy she/they threw the baby out with the bathwater; goods based industries were unsupported.

Service-based industries can be defined as financial services, hospitality, retail, health, human services, information technology and education. Hospitality is notoriously low-paid; retail, in the way we knew it, is dying; health is struggling with its cost base and lack of highly trained operatives; human services can be an extremely low-paid area if not exploitative; we buy in a lot of our highly paid information technologists and education is spurned by large numbers of older voters, who currently hold sway, while the young do their best to acquire it.

Financial Services, which was always intended to be the driver of this change is 6.9% of our economy with 49% of that generated in London. The UK financial services are the seventh-largest in the OECD in 2018 by its proportion of national economic output.

With all the changes we have seen in our lifetime. The lack of support in the areas where the traditional goods based industry was cut off at the feet, the concentration on London, the lack of jobs for the just below the middle-income earners likely to grow into the lack of jobs for middle-income earners altogether, how do you see the UK, economically, in, say, 10 or 20 years time. Who will thrive in this brave new world and who will work hard to survive?

jura2 Tue 21-Jan-20 09:31:07

Indeed- but don't worry, the Brexit Party has the solution (?!?!?!?!):

''June Mummery, one of Nigel Farage's group of politicians, tweeted to announce she had attended the penultimate session of the European parliament's fisheries committee to include British MEPs.

Posting a photograph she pondered something many of us Remainers have been wondering for a number of years.

"*The big question now is, who will be here to hold these people to account while they still control Britain's waters, but the UK has no representation?*"

Just can't make it up sad

GrannyGravy13 Tue 21-Jan-20 09:36:06

The IMF is predicting that the U.K. will have larger growth than France or Germany 2020/21.

Urmstongran Tue 21-Jan-20 09:37:35

Hopefully nursing bursaries coming back so we will train our own nurses again instead of recruiting from abroad. I think any new NHS nurses, doctors, etc on the front line ought to be asked to sign a contract saying they will work for the NHS for say 5y or pay the government back for their tuition fees.

Time to change the way we do things.

I would like to see workers represented on the board of directors. Theresa May suggested it but amongst all the Brexit mess nothing happened.

I also think CEO’s salaries are shamefully exorbitant compared to those of the worker bees.

Social care needs addressing. Maybe a cross party consensus so that it doesn’t become a political football in future years.

The HoL needs culling. 700+ members is ridiculous.

Small businesses need a peg up, farmers need financial support while they grow stuff instead of receiving EU funds to let fields lie fallow. We need to ‘Buy British’ to help the economy and climate change!

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 09:40:44

Do you have any idea where this will happen in the UK GG13, or which people will benefit/loose from the particular growth that would put us in that position?

I know this is gazing into a crystal ball but I do wonder what the UK will be like. What will be the growth areas and which will look as old as using horse-drawn vehicles? Just personal insight really.

Teetime Tue 21-Jan-20 09:43:32

This all sounds like a question from my OU restructuring Britain Course in 1990.

Doodledog Tue 21-Jan-20 09:48:00

education is spurned by large numbers of older voters, who currently hold sway. . . ‘

What do you mean by this, please?

ladymuck Tue 21-Jan-20 10:04:03

There is bound to be a transitional period of adjustment. I don't see any reason why our standards should drop. We certainly should refuse to import American goods if it means accepting poorer quality.
It is up to the buyer (us) to refuse to purchase inferior goods. If we don't buy, companies go bust.

Elegran Tue 21-Jan-20 10:07:42

Yres, I'd like to know what you mean by that. What kind of education and to what purpose (work-based for redeployment? personal growth to widen horizons? social consciousness as defined by the media for redesigning the world?) Which young people are desperate to acquire education, and which desperate to avoid and escape it?

If you are correct, why do the old not want education?

MaizieD Tue 21-Jan-20 10:17:12

farmers need financial support while they grow stuff instead of receiving EU funds to let fields lie fallow.

Oh goodness, not this again.

It was called 'set aside' and was abolished in 2007, 13 years ago. This EU myths take a long time to die, don't they?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/agriculture/farming/3308245/Set-aside-suspended-by-European-Union.html

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 10:34:14

It is up to the buyer (us) to refuse to purchase inferior goods. If we don't buy, companies go bust

That would be one way of having some control. How do you see things changing for those on very low incomes ladymuck, that will enable them to make these choices?

jura2 Tue 21-Jan-20 10:35:53

Incredible ...

As for that MEP worried that the UK will no longer be represented in Brussels - Farage only attended 1 of the 42 meetings he could have attended on a Fisheries Committee? So he didn't represent our interests much, did he?!?

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 10:37:11

education is spurned by large numbers of older voters, who currently hold sway. . . ‘

What do you mean by this, please?

That is just my point of view Doodledog. How do you see the majority of older voters attitude to, for example, the majority going to university?

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 10:43:25

What kind of education and to what purpose (work-based for redeployment? personal growth to widen horizons? social consciousness as defined by the media for redesigning the world?) Which young people are desperate to acquire education, and which desperate to avoid and escape it?

Can you reply to those questions Elegran? Without having some understanding of what society will look like it is difficult to assess what is best. Will there be few middle-income jobs? What are the jobs of the near future that will be created? Will everyone still be needed to work?

GagaJo Tue 21-Jan-20 10:47:27

What would be great would be if they would reintroduce some sort of scheme to enable teachers to pay off their student loans by a certain percentage for every year they teach in a state funded school.

It would stop the teacher exodus.
It would reduce the huge bills schools incur for supply staff.
It would ensure stability for students.

Not sure how you stop the decimation of older more experienced staff because they are expensive though.

Urmstongran Tue 21-Jan-20 10:54:42

Oh come on MaizieD it is still happening! This from the GUARDIAN in January 2019:

‘Dozens of MPs and peers, including some with vast inherited wealth, own or manage farms that collectively have received millions of pounds in European Union subsidies.

An analysis by the Guardian and the environmental group Friends of the Earth identified 48 parliamentarians who claimed £5.7m in farming subsidies under the EU’s common agricultural policy (CAP) in 2017, the latest year for which figures are available.

The largest single payment – £473,000 – was paid to a Sussex farming firm run by the 18th Duke of Norfolk, a large landowner whose estate dates from the middle ages.

Conservative MP Richard Drax, descendant of a 19th-century slave-owner and current resident of the family ancestral seat of Charborough House in Dorset, owns a farm that received £411,000.’

I will try to post the link.

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 10:55:41

Urmstongran it is good to hear what you want but I would love to know how you see society changing. Or to quote Teetime's interesting course, how do you see the "restructuring" intended to be brought about by the changes the country has voted for, looking in the near to medium future?

Do you think the markets would, for instance, push more people into nursing or will nursing change? What nudge factor would push companies into having workers represented on the board of directors or close the gap between salaries.

Social care is very low paid. Do you see a growth in such jobs while the middle-income jobs are hollowed out by technology or will something change to encourage us to pay caring jobs better so that this becomes the middle, or just below the middle, just as the growth in information processing jobs grew in the 1980s/90s?

What pressure would bring about a change in the HoL and what would allow or push that into happening?

Urmstongran Tue 21-Jan-20 10:57:54

Here it is (I hope)

www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/27/revealed-the-mps-and-peers-receiving-millions-in-eu-farm-subsidies-cap

It’s not in blue so it might not open, I’m not sure but it’s easy to Google!

Urmstongran Tue 21-Jan-20 10:58:33

Ah, it highlights in blue after posting! Result.

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 11:00:35

What would be great would be if they would reintroduce some sort of scheme to enable teachers to pay off their student loans by a certain percentage for every year they teach in a state funded school.

Do you think that we will need so many more, better-educated children, going into further and higher education, that governments will be pushed into doing this, GagaJo?

Could businesses see it worth-while to retain "experience" or will they want new thinking? To get them to pay there has to be something in it for them. What could that be?

Urmstongran Tue 21-Jan-20 11:01:44

I think AI is going to be the biggest change, to harness technology. Maybe freeing up people to become carers. Or hairdressers? All occupations not able to be done by robots will be valued.

newnanny Tue 21-Jan-20 11:07:23

I saw IMF predicting more growth for UK than either France or Germany too. Also BoE made positive statement as inflation down . Interest rates may be slashed again too which would prompt more growth. Once out of shacked of EU we can generate trade deals with commonwealth countries and US so not having all our eggs in EU basket. In 10 years I can see us well ahead of EU with faster growth as 1 country can move faster than 27.

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 11:13:41

You could well be right UG. Many knowledgable people see the middle being hollowed out by AI. Who needs a trained member of staff to check a cancer smear when the robot gets it right more frequently and can be made so it learns from its mistakes. Two scientists do this job currently. There is already talk of a robot plus one. Then it may be several robots with a robot technician. So robot technicians may grow in number while scientist move on to other things. Maybe someone else sees this differently?

Equally, why have middle-level solicitors when trained AIs can check and write contracts? Again, one to check several AIs work might suffice.

Would this raise the level of caring though?

GracesGranMK3 Tue 21-Jan-20 11:16:16

Interesting New Nanny. Where does the IMF see growth for the UK coming from? What types of skills will be needed to provide for that growth? Who will benefit and who will lose?

Elegran Tue 21-Jan-20 11:23:35

I was asking for the rational behind YOUR statement, GG3 - " and education is spurned by large numbers of older voters, who currently hold sway, while the young do their best to acquire it." Before inviting speculation based on acceptance of your post, you need to validate your starting assumptions.