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It's not all over for the LibDems

(173 Posts)
growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 02:59:18

The LibDems have just won the Tory stronghold of Chesham and Amersham in the by-election. Maybe it's just a one-off, but maybe not.

Kim19 Fri 18-Jun-21 04:19:14

Think it may be a reaction to current discontent.

vegansrock Fri 18-Jun-21 04:53:39

Puts paid to the belief that the Tories and their divisive policies are universally popular. In falling over themselves to gain the working class UKIP vote they’ve alienated some of their traditional Home Counties supporters.

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 05:50:40

Kim19

Think it may be a reaction to current discontent.

I'm sure that's true, but it does show that there is discontent.

Framilode Fri 18-Jun-21 06:12:43

The present Tory party is more like UKIP. I think that many traditional tories are discontented, plus Amersham was one of the highest Remain areas in the referendum. They are probably not happy with the way Brexit is going.

GrannyGravy13 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:35:59

Conservatives won last time with 16000+ majority, Lib Dem’s won last night with 8028 major a swing of 25.2%

As has been said this area was very pro-remain.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:38:17

Oh I’ve started another thread by mistake - sorry, I’ll get it taken down.

I’m hoping that this is the result of a beginning of a left alliance that could take the aTories down at the next election.

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 07:39:15

Yes, it did vote Remain, but the former MP Cheryl Gillan was pro-Brexit and still won with a big majority.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:40:03

Yes I think Brexit, corruption, incompetence are all factors in the vote, but that is a large majority for the Lib Dem’s given that the Tories had a 16000 majority.

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 07:40:39

Whitewavemark2

Oh I’ve started another thread by mistake - sorry, I’ll get it taken down.

I’m hoping that this is the result of a beginning of a left alliance that could take the aTories down at the next election.

There was certainly tactical voting, which is why Labour and the Greens did so badly. Whether it can be sustained is another matter.

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 07:42:31

Whitewavemark2

Yes I think Brexit, corruption, incompetence are all factors in the vote, but that is a large majority for the Lib Dem’s given that the Tories had a 16000 majority.

Yes, it is. Apparently, the Tories knew it would be close, but didn't expect to lose, so it's a significant result. I expect the pundits will be arguing about why the LibDems won so many votes.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:44:55

I think it should be a lesson learned t throughout the country.

The right never has an overall majority, that in fact the country as a whole is always left of centre but because of the split votes, boundaries etc fptp often ensures a skewed tory government which the majority did not vote for.

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 07:45:00

Chesham and Amersham was only 51st on the LibDem "wish list".

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:45:26

Congratulation to varian😄

growstuff Fri 18-Jun-21 07:46:23

Ooops! Forgot the link:

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

M0nica Fri 18-Jun-21 07:48:35

Not only did the Lib Dems win, but there was a swing of 24,000 votes, a 16,000 majority turned into an 8,000 defeat. To which should be added a drop in the vote from 76% of the electorate to 52%. So many Conservative voters showed their disenchantment by just not voting at all.

It is, almost certainly, as Kim suggests a reaction to current discontent, but my goodness, what a reaction, to see a 16,000 majority turned into an 8,000 loss, plus all the abstainers, isn't just a slap on the wrist, it is a really hard kick where it really really hurts.

Factors in the swing included HS2 and the new planning regulations, or rather plans for a lack of regulation.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 07:50:21

Yes trashing the planning regulations will never go down well in the leafy shires.

Galaxy Fri 18-Jun-21 07:52:08

I think its quite a complex result to unpick as there were particular factors to the area such as HS2, but it may indicate that the Tories are becoming the party of the working class and the others can sweep up the middle class.

eazybee Fri 18-Jun-21 08:02:37

I gather from radio interviews that the Lib Dems campaigned very strongly on local issues, HS2 and the building of a large number of homes, both of which they said they supported in the manifesto, but which they are apparently planning to 'relocate.' Lib Dems are the real nimbys, very resistant to change.
We were blessed with a Lib Dem MP who did precisely this; as an MP, a very good local councillor writing very strong letters about dustbins, but quite useless in Parliament. Now thankfully departed.

Whitewavemark2 Fri 18-Jun-21 08:18:26

Remain clearly played a large part.

It does where I live. Never gone away and now being reinforced with the disaster that is Brexit.

Visgir1 Fri 18-Jun-21 08:40:34

Mid term swing vote not unusual.
You should really vote for the person not the party, perhaps she's a lovely lady. Good luck to her she has about 2 years to enjoy that job minimum.

PippaZ Fri 18-Jun-21 08:46:00

I gather from radio interviews that the Lib Dems campaigned very strongly on local issues, HS2 and the building of a large number of homes, both of which they said they supported in the manifesto, but which they are apparently planning to 'relocate.' Lib Dems are the real nimbys, very resistant to change.

So if you re-invent yourself to be the party of "those who think they are not listened to but are actually just getting the same treatment as all minories (that's all of us, all the time)" you then make derogatory comments about the winners because the people you used to say you stood for have decided to have a look at another party. Now, what was it the leave voters called that? hmm

PippaZ Fri 18-Jun-21 08:48:18

Visgir1

Mid term swing vote not unusual.
You should really vote for the person not the party, perhaps she's a lovely lady. Good luck to her she has about 2 years to enjoy that job minimum.

You should really vote for the person not the party, ...

Isn't that a matter of personal choice and not something that anyone else can tell us to do with our vote?

love0c Fri 18-Jun-21 09:09:46

I think it is because people could not bring themselves to vote for the Cons again. But also because they could not bring themselves to vote for Lab either. We desperately need another new party. The lot we have all need burying.

PippaZ Fri 18-Jun-21 09:13:46

Wow. Just watching Dominic Grieve on BBC. At least the knife is in full view and I have to agree with his summary.