Exam results

Furret

growstuff

GagaJo From my work as an examiner and talking to Chief Examiners, I know that most teachers overestimate predicted grades. I've also seen it with the pupils I tutor, although I'm pleased to say that my first result this year (CIE IGCSE announced its results before the other boards) was a 9, which I confidently predicted.

Most teachers do NOT overestimate predicted grades. And many of their predictions are moderated. Your post rankles with me as you seem to be blowing your own trumpet while doing real teachers down.

Yes, they do Furret. The exam boards and universities know it. I used to do it myself and I was a real teacher.

Well everywhere I've ever worked (bar one, my Spanish school) has been rigid about accurate predictions.

UK schools have what they call aspirational predictions and actual predictions. The aspirational predictions are those released to parents of what the little darlings COULD achieve but the actual predictions are those which are used for school data.

Teachers are held to account for the correlation between actual predictions and results. As I said, mine are pretty accurate. If you over predict, it makes you look as if either you don't know your students or aren't teaching well.

Accuracy of predictions is always a performance management target. Simply put, accurate predictions, you pass that target, inaccurate and you fail. Fail one target, fail a whole years performance management.

It’s all this emphasis (not just in education ) on “targets”
Predicted grades are different to target grades so why do we need them.....controversial I realise.
Talking with old friend other evening we both said you could teach a child in year 7 and predict their gcse grade (quietly to yourself of course !)
Too much number crunching in education and possibly other public sectors ?

Exactly Lucca. It isn't rocket science.

It is hard to imagine how this can be done fairly. But the system in Scotland apparently downgraded pupils from poorer schools, as if no-one from there could get a good grade. It is good that this has been overturned.

In England it seems that students will be able to use mock exam grades if they are higher than those given by moderators. That might be reassuring to students; but whether it is entirely fair is debatable.

I cannot see that there is any really fair way of doing this.

Have you seen the latest volte face by our Gavin ?
Students can now choose. What the exam board decide (including risk of downgrades I assume) or mock result or a resit.
Not all schools do mocks I gather. We did them in January February giving lots of time to up the game from both teaching and learning aspects. It was pretty standard for many students to improve a grade or two from mocks to the real exam.

Never liked the exam system. Students just need to be a little of colour that one day, and get lower than expected results, and they are always held in the middle of the alergy season!!!
One of my children always got disastrous mock type results - then for the last couple of weeks before any examination, she would just cram and cram - would walk into exam and get excellent grade - usually forgot all that cramming within a couple of months.
Still holding my breath (metaphorically speaking) for the next 24 hours!!!

I must admit I did wince when I read the exchange of comments at 05.14 am. Whatever we feel about personal methods of predicting grades, even whatever we feel about personal methods of teaching, all educators conform to a common ethos of exceptional teaching and take great pride in their work. It isn't really blowing ones own trumpet to express pride in a pupil who has achieved the top grade with your coaching. It is delight for your pupil, and a vindication that your teaching was successful and your prediction correct. Without broadcasting these triumphs loudly the job would be very rewarding.

I am not quite sure what a teacher who isn't real looks like. I hate online learning with a passion because it just isn't real to me. It doesn't , however, mean that the teacher isn't highly qualified and experienced and has probably spent more years in the classroom than I've had hot dinners since lockdown.

* unrewarding* line 13

You probably hate online teaching because you're (how do I put this delicately?) old.

I had to upskill myself very quickly at the beginning of lockdown and it's now second nature to teach online - admittedly only one-to-one. There are even some advantages.

It was announced this morning that if teacher predictions had been the only criterion used to award grades, 38% of all A level entries in England would have been A or A*, which is unrealistic. That's over 10% higher than the previous number of highest grades. Somebody is overestimating.

I apologise for posting something which seemed as though I was boasting. I was actually overjoyed for the pupil involved, who has had more than her fair share of problems this year.

I don't think exams are the be-all-and-end-all of achievement. It's actually not that difficult to achieve high grades, if you understand the mark scheme and strip teaching down to what's needed. Some schools do that better than others. It's not what I personally think education is all about, but that's what parents and pupils usually want.

Not very old growstuff, a babe of the 60's maybe younger than you. Quaintly old fashioned maybe.

Lucca

It’s all this emphasis (not just in education ) on “targets”
Predicted grades are different to target grades so why do we need them.....controversial I realise.
Talking with old friend other evening we both said you could teach a child in year 7 and predict their gcse grade (quietly to yourself of course !)
Too much number crunching in education and possibly other public sectors ?

Parents don't understand the difference between target and predicted grades either. Predicted grades are what the teacher thinks a pupil will actually achieve.

Target grades are what the DfE uses to track individual pupils from primary school and beat up schools and teachers if the pupils don't show linear progression. Statistically, they're reasonably valid for a whole cohort, but there is too much margin for error to be valid for individual students.

Ellianne

Not very old growstuff, a babe of the 60's maybe younger than you. Quaintly old fashioned maybe.

I stand corrected.

Online teaching can be as personalised as you want. It's just two people interacting on a screen rather than across a table.

I apologise for posting something which seemed as though I was boasting. I was actually overjoyed for the pupil involved, who has had more than her fair share of problems this year.
No need to apologise to me growstuff, I was right behind you on this one. It was someone else who took exception to your trumpet blowing.

Online teaching can be as personalised as you want. It's just two people interacting on a screen rather than across a table.

I wish I could warm to it growstuff but I'm not sold. I wasn't really cut out to sit on a chair and learn for long periods and am not patient with technology and screens

I'm a teacher and am dreading the results this week and next. I don't know how I'm going to look my children in the face if it all goes badly for them...

A lot of assumptions being made regarding English exam results, which have yet to be announced.

The Scottish Government used a system that downgraded schools that did not have an overall high achievement record. Generally but not overall schools in deprived areas. This downgrading was greater than the schools in wealthy areas. This from a Government that consistently seems to be emphasising they will not tolerate poverty being a barrier to achievement! Not in this case. Did see the news item last week when FM vehemently defended the system applied. Lets hope the other education systems do not apply anything like the Scottish attempt at fairness.

Wasn't it the SQA which was responsible for the grading?

I don't know the details of how the grades were worked out, but what the SQA should have done (and maybe did) was compare historic predictions with actual grades awarded.

The real problem is that schools in more affluent areas historically do better - that's what needs addressing across the whole UK - and not just for this year.

4allweknow

The Scottish Government used a system that downgraded schools that did not have an overall high achievement record. Generally but not overall schools in deprived areas. This downgrading was greater than the schools in wealthy areas. This from a Government that consistently seems to be emphasising they will not tolerate poverty being a barrier to achievement! Not in this case. Did see the news item last week when FM vehemently defended the system applied. Lets hope the other education systems do not apply anything like the Scottish attempt at fairness.

I know I'm a rampant leftie but it's obviously part of a system designed to keep the poor down. Factory fodder, or whatever the current sociological term is. The elite have no incentive to want a highly qualified/educated working class. They want us earning their profits for them.

Shortlegs

A lot of assumptions being made regarding English exam results, which have yet to be announced.

I think they will be downgraded from teacher predictions. Pupils weren't supposed to be told their predicted grades. If final grades were based on teacher predictions only, there would be 38% A/A* grades. The previous highest percentage of A/A* grades was 27%. Overprediction has happened, but it depends what algorithm is used to downgrade.

Using mock results isn't the answer either because there's no consistency about how school set and mark mocks.

GagaJo

4allweknow

The Scottish Government used a system that downgraded schools that did not have an overall high achievement record. Generally but not overall schools in deprived areas. This downgrading was greater than the schools in wealthy areas. This from a Government that consistently seems to be emphasising they will not tolerate poverty being a barrier to achievement! Not in this case. Did see the news item last week when FM vehemently defended the system applied. Lets hope the other education systems do not apply anything like the Scottish attempt at fairness.

I know I'm a rampant leftie but it's obviously part of a system designed to keep the poor down. Factory fodder, or whatever the current sociological term is. The elite have no incentive to want a highly qualified/educated working class. They want us earning their profits for them.

How would you have awarded the final grades?

This whole fiasco is another government botch from beginning to end.
In this mediocre government it maybe isn't surprising that ministers don't fully understand how examination systems work let alone further and higher education entry What is unpardonable is that they have not been talking or listening to those who do and who are now left to pick up the pieces and no doubt be blamed for the shambles.

My son took his A levels last year where his predictions, based on his teacher's assessment and mocks, were 3 A*'s and an A. In the final exams, he only got 2 A*, an A and a B. To me, they were still excellent grades but he was gutted. All the way through his education he was encouraged to do his best, particularly for mocks because you never know when you are going to have to rely on them if you miss your finals. He feels very slightly cheated that this year he could have probably have had the predicted grades on his certificate.
Meanwhile, his very last minute merchant, highly intelligent friend is really worried. His mock exams were very poor because he was relying on his finals to excel as he had always done in the past.
There is a very big lesson to learn here and maybe exams at the end of the first year of A levels would have worked better here.

My grandson will be taking his GCSE's next year and I fear for him too. He's dyslexic and best predicted grades are C