Gov. Uk tables of CV 19 - not all of them are frightening!!!

Yay

It’s interesting , figures today for UK, yesterday’s numbers, cases 2, 988, deaths 2, highest cases since May, deaths significantly lower, testing has increased a lot since May. I wonder if the virus is decreasing in potency, or our immune systems are coping better, believe more cases now in the 40’s and under.

I agree with jaxjacky. The number of hospitalisations and deaths are falling because most of the new cases are in people under 40.
I don’t think there is any cause for good cheer or even complacency.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but as older people we are still vulnerable to Covid, more likely to suffer severe symptoms and more likely to die if we get it.
The number of new cases per day has more than doubled in the last week.
That’s not good news.

The amount of positive tests are mainly for younger people, who may not require any hospital stay, and unlikely in any case to die.They can still be spreaders though......to you and me.

I agree with you lemongrove and janeainsworth.

The new cases are mainly younger people, who are less likely to need hospitalisation. However, I haven't read anywhere that the virus is decreasing in potency and, as individuals, our immune systems can only learn to cope better if we catch something first, so that's not at all likely.

The worry is that the younger people could now spread it to older and more vulnerable groups, who are as susceptible as ever.

However, the numbers in Glasgow are rising again and at the moment we are back in semi lockdown.
There have been quite a few cases in schools in the last few weeks, but they are community based.
The cases are apparently caused by social gatherings in homes and people returning from holiday.

As a shielder, I will be laying low for the time being.☹️

It was announced yesterday that a local (to me) secondary school with 1300 pupils has closed after five teachers and an unknown number of pupils have tested positive. The teachers had contact with all the bubbles, which is why the whole school had to close.

I had shielded and just started to go out again but the figures have rocketed where I live. I went out for a meal with two friends and have discovered that there was someone with the virus there so have locked myself down again. Luckily Asda are looking after me with a (free) weekly delivery.

I wonder how many people are like you and still shielding. I wonder how many new cases there would be, if we all started going out again. It possibly explains why most new cases are in younger people.

I agree growstuff. Most of us oldies are still being very careful. Perhaps it’s not all bad if the youngsters catch it.

Herd immunity perhaps?

Maybe! But that would require about 80% to catch it. Even though younger people are less severely affected, some would die and others would have long-term after effects. Not only that, but it would require no contact between vulnerable groups and younger people for many months and we know even from GN that people haven't been sticking to that. Moreover, it's now being suggested that immunity isn't permanent, but like the common cold.

The government doesn't seem to know what it's doing. It's been reported yet again that some areas have completely run out of test kits. If it wants to go for herd immunity, it needs to make sure that shielding the vulnerable is strictly enforced, which is probably impossible.

growstuff

It was announced yesterday that a local (to me) secondary school with 1300 pupils has closed after five teachers and an unknown number of pupils have tested positive. The teachers had contact with all the bubbles, which is why the whole school had to close.

Oh the irony! I've just realised that this school is in Matt Hancock's constituency.

It seems to me that Franbern had found something positive and is being shot down for it. While its true that the virus isn't weakening, we don't have better immunity and most of the new cases are in younger people, its also true that for now we have many fewer people in hospitals and even fewer dying, and that is positive.
There is definitely a tendency to always look for the downside. For instance, regarding Glasgow Marydoll. When I think back to lockdown, the situation now is far removed from that, its certainly not semi-lockdown. Visits to people's houses are not allowed, but shopping, restaurants, schools are all going on as normal. I understand that many people are not having a normal life, myself included, but right now society has so much more than we had.
The language we use is so important. growstuff comments that a school near her has closed - but if its the one I think it is, it has closed for one day for deep cleaning.

I think young people still need to be careful. I believe neurological damage can result from getting the virus even if you don't die from it.

I'm not shooting her down at all.

What I have said is that there is no evidence that the virus is "weakening" and it's impossible to develop immunity without a vaccine or being infected in the first place.

I also explained that the reduction in hospitalisations is probably because younger people are involved. What's your problem?

It concerns me that "good news" is seen as a reason for complacency.

It possibly is the same school and the head has said it will open again on Tuesday, but that's not guaranteed. There still need to be investigations about how the infections and
spread occurred. Two more staff and a number of pupils are waiting for test results. One of my online pupils is one of them.

How many more schools will have to close for just one day or a few days? As I live about 10 miles from that school and I know many people go shopping in the town in which the school is located, it's even more reason for me to be ultra-careful.

My "problem" is that there seems to be only one narrative in this discussion (i.e. about COVID, not just in Gransnet.) Don't try to be positive, we're all doomed. It is a terrible situation, I'm not downplaying it, but fewer than 10 people a day dying at the moment, compared to the 1,000 we had, is good news, like it or not. We don't need to tell people that we're going to burst their bubble (I know that wasn't growstuff)
Of course we can't have complacency. But another Gransnetter last week mentioned the millions of people dying. WHO estimates fewer than a million dying worldwide. A survey in Scotland showed that people thought about 10% of the population had died. That's 500,000 people. True figure, about 4,000.
There is a middle way between catastrophising and magical thinking, and we all need to find it.

I've just re-read this and it could appear that I think 10 people a day dying is OK. Obviously its not and I'm sorry I expressed myself badly.

I agree with you Alegrias. I really object to being accused of scaremongering or being a scaredy cat. I know that millions of people aren't dying and in most parts of the UK, the number of deaths is down to single or double figures per day. The number of deaths could very well be because those most at risk are still being very cautious.

I just want honesty and cutting the political spin. It is still deadly to those with underlying health conditions. The risk of being infected is low in many areas, but it's not good news if cases rise steeply because it's less safe to go out and about.

If there are people who are happy to pass it amongst themselves, that's fine by me, but maybe they'd like to keep themselves to themselves - maybe cordon themselves off in a separate part of town or shops or wear a big "Danger Don't Come Close" badge.

Also reported by BBC yesterday that the reason for the high numbers of positive tests is that they are so sensitive that they are picking up dead virus in those that had it months ago and ceased to be infectious many weeks ago, but still test positive. They are healthy people who will not need treatment and can't infect others.

Alegrias for those who look after grandchildren, not visiting people' s homes is a huge issue.
I haven't seen my DGD for weeks, as she has started school.She now has to attend, Aftercare.

As a shielder previously, I have been advised not to go out at all, as I'm so vulnerable.
It means my family are now back to doing my shopping and collecting prescriptions, standing in the pouring rain to deliver them. They are terrified of passing the virus on to me.
So in effect, I'm in no better a position than I was in March, thanks to selfish idiots. ?

That's one of Heneghan's theories, much beloved by the BBC. It's been shown that the tests can pick up people who are no longer infectious, but it's not known how many. The experiments were done some months ago, so aren't relevant to current figures. Scientists dispute how much these cases are distorting the figures. It certainly doesn't account for the huge spike yesterday. As there's a shortage of test kits, the actual case rate is probably even higher.

All I was trying to show with these tables that it appears that the medics have found far more and better ways of dealing with this virus, even for those seriously ill with it.
Numbers of those requiring hospitalisation is extremely low (and so is that of the unfortunate few who require intensive care), numbers of daily deaths in UK is miniscule (at least from this virus - not from all the usual things that are around.
People are getting fixated on the positive tests numbers - which are obviously increasing , not because more people are out and about, but simply because so many more tests are being carried out. So they should be, and far, far more than are being done currently.
We should be totally bound by fears - most of us never have been in the past with fears of flue, pneumonia, malaria (I have even heard that our mild winters are putting us at danger of this -the current biggest killer of all in the world), but no-one seems to be panicking about it.
If you feel very, very vulnerable and are willing to put your life on total hold and stay indoors - then that is your choice - but just ask yourself if you did this in previous years when 'flu rampaged around killing off so many people??
I will repeat what I have said before, at my age quality of life is actually more important to me than quantity - so I will just take my chance out there - see my family and g.children. My choice!!
But I had hoped that the figures might be a little re-assuring to all.

Marydoll I’m sorry, that must be very hard, especially not seeing your grandchildren. I’m really not saying everything’s rosy, it’s not. I’ve spent 1 hour with my elderly parents since February, and that was outdoors in a car park. They live far away and visiting is difficult because social distancing is impossible in their tiny flat. We’ve rented some accommodation in October to go and see them, but if that gets cancelled because people are being selfish and the rules get changed, I’ll be heartbroken.
I see people on TV complaining that they had to come home early from Portugal, or wherever, because quarantine rules changed, and I think that some people don’t know they are born…..

Seriousness and fatality rates go up with age with any disease from flu to cancer. It is an ineluctable fact. There is nothing remarkable about COVID doing the same.

Medical knowledge has come on in leaps and bounds in dealing with this disease, which probably didn't exist a year ago and the chances of a quick recovery and few longterm problems are much higher for all ages.

How many of us would leave the house if we really knew the exact probability of us being injured in road accident, of tripping over something in the street, not to mention all the coughs, colds, flus and other diseases that can be caught.

For the health and wellbeing of everyone, it is necessary that the economy recovers as soon as possible, people return to work or can get new jobs and that means we need to develop a rational reaction to risk, or are we to become a third world country over-burdened by debt and with a collapsed economy, where the economic migrants will be British citizens escaping this country for opportunities elsewhere.

I am not suggesting a reduction in precautions when out. I have worn both mask and gloves when out, from the start of the pandemic in March, I socially distance and take every care, but at the same time, I appreciate people's concerns when members of their family are very vulnerable, but those same vulnerable people were equally vulnerable to flu and many other conditions before COVID. Were you taking the same precautions then?

I do not know anybody who has had COVID but my sister was killed in a road accident, my daughter seriously injured and left with a residual disability following a road accident, a whole family close to my DiL were also killed in a road accident. I have friends and contacts who sometime in their lives have been in traffic accidents that led to serious injury yet we all still get into cars as passengers and drivers and travel thousands of miles every year.

We need to take care, but our longtime well being requires us to come out from behind our barriers and move forward, socially distanced, of course.