New Scientist on R number

sandelf - sigh indeed. If only the government had been clear throughout, had seemed trustworthy, and applied the rules themselves.

This is too serious to be tinkering around.

More worried by the fact that it says in the article that a number of people are being re-infected showing that the immune system , in some people at least, does not provide future immunity - what does that say about the effectiveness of a vaccine?

I can't read the New Scientist article on re-infection, because its behind the firewall, but this NYT article explains why declining natural immunity is not a concern for the effectiveness of a vaccine.

www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html

In the short term, I'm not that bothered about a vaccine. Despite the false promises, we're months or years away from one, so we have to have strategies in place to deal with the situation as it is and just leave vaccinations out of the equation as far as the public is concerned.

Its all quite worrying. I go out in my mask and gloves, and there are so many out there who do not. Overheard two sales assistants (young men) talking about going to the pub for a drink 'you really must come' one said ' there are lots of us going'. I do despair. All that hard work shielding and being scared and it looks like it could possibly happen again. I will shop tomorrow and Wednesday (day off) and then will stay in if the increase gets worse in my area.

rowanflower0

More worried by the fact that it says in the article that a number of people are being re-infected showing that the immune system , in some people at least, does not provide future immunity - what does that say about the effectiveness of a vaccine?

Just been talking to DD who is one of the folk working on a vaccine.

At the moment immunity from anti-bodies on average is lasting 4 months, and a vaccine will almost certainly have to be given yearly. Like flu except that the covid virus is pretty stable.

Oxford is in the late stage of 3 and if everything goes well we should know pretty soon how/if effective.

Oxford is British so will almost certainly be the one we will have.

DD is working on the American one but in the U.K.

It was pretty obvious that with the easing of lockdown and the eating out initiative, pubs opening, schools going back, and workers being encouraged to return to work, that there would be a rise in the infection rates. To manage this successfully we needed the promised “world beating test system” which clearly we have not yet got. Listening to Any answers on Saturday, there were many complaints about the lack of tests available to those who are symptomatic.The numbers are probably far higher than those registered.

My GS has Covid symptoms after being back in school. My son was told there are no tests available anywhere.
He has informed the school, which may mean that those in his bubble may have to isolate even though no positive test has been done. Also his brother has to stay at home for 14 days until a test becomes available and is negative.
It is worrying as there is probably an outbreak in the school but if they can't get tests it could get out of hand.

Greeneyedgirl

It was pretty obvious that with the easing of lockdown and the eating out initiative, pubs opening, schools going back, and workers being encouraged to return to work, that there would be a rise in the infection rates. To manage this successfully we needed the promised “world beating test system” which clearly we have not yet got. Listening to Any answers on Saturday, there were many complaints about the lack of tests available to those who are symptomatic.The numbers are probably far higher than those registered.

Ah! But we can "blame" the people who are getting tested just for fun! Is there really no end of scapegoats of groups who can be blamed for just about everything?

There are no tests at all to be had in Surrey, so how can anybody tell if the numbers are increasing. My son has been trying to get a test for his 12 month old with very high temperature and cough, told to do so when seen by the hospital doctor who was not allowed to look in his throat or ears, presumably because of coronavirus, absolutley no tests available, this is a fiasco.

What a nonsense that doctors cannot examine babies.

My sister due to leave hospital after a nasty fall, and was given a test which said "positive". Much disappointment all round as she wasn't allowed home. However a repeat test the next day came back as "negative"and she came home that very day. How many False Positives have had people incarcerated in their homes for 14 days?

Flakesdayout,
My daughter is a doctor and has impressed upon us that we should not be using gloves to protect ourselves. We don’t use the correct protocol for using gloves as a protection against infection, for example the doctors tend to use double gloving as a precaution, and have a strict protocol for safely removing the gloves and indeed all PPE, something that none medical people don’t do. She said that it is much, much safer for us to use sanitiser rather than gloves.

Whitewave,
God bless your daughter. Please thank her for working so hard to find a vaccine for us all.

LindyB

There are no tests at all to be had in Surrey, so how can anybody tell if the numbers are increasing. My son has been trying to get a test for his 12 month old with very high temperature and cough, told to do so when seen by the hospital doctor who was not allowed to look in his throat or ears, presumably because of coronavirus, absolutley no tests available, this is a fiasco.

But it's world beating!

The government has just revealed that there's a 185,000 swab backlog and the system is so stretched it's sending tests to labs in Italy and Germany.

UK labs have the capacity to test more, but there are problems in the supply chain for testing equipment. That's apart from the tests which have simply gone missing.

People on local Facebook groups have been reporting all day that they can't get tests. This is an area without any food processing plants or sweat shops, has relatively low density housing, is on average quite elderly, hasn't had an influx of tourists or students and, on the whole, people have tried to do the right thing. In other words, we don't fit the stereotypes and it would be difficult to blame anybody.

Nevertheless, the number of new cases has increased tenfold in two weeks and people can't get tested. Understandably, they're frustrated and worried - as are people across the country. It wouldn't surprise me if the schools are half empty tomorrow - so much for all the virtue signalling about education being so important and concern about children's mental health? If the government hadn't tried so hard to score political points and had listened to people who actually know what it's like in schools and workplaces, thus could have been mitigated.

The real number of cases is probably higher than admitted, which is already bad enough.

Looking at the local figures, I note that almost the whole of Norfolk is an "area of concern". Strangely, Kings Lynn and West Norfolk, where there are food processing plants have quite a low number of cases. Parts of Suffolk also have a high number of cases, including Matt Hancock's own constituency.

As a matter of urgency, the government needs to stop coming up with daft ideas such as Moondrop, stop outsourcing to cronies and stop pretending everything is fine. It needs to start listening to the people on the ground and take action. It can't pretend any longer that it's been taken by surprise because it's had months to plan this. Instead it wastes its time sacking civil servants, breaking the law and threatening human rights and more.

Blodwen1910

My sister due to leave hospital after a nasty fall, and was given a test which said "positive". Much disappointment all round as she wasn't allowed home. However a repeat test the next day came back as "negative"and she came home that very day. How many False Positives have had people incarcerated in their homes for 14 days?

And how many false negatives have people thinking they're not infected? The current estimate is 30%, with one study showing that 38% showed negative tests, when they were actually positive.

What a depressing thread....

hapgran

What a depressing thread....

It wouldn't be depressing if people got a grip and just acted responsibly rather than thinking we can just go back to normal.

And if we had a government which is more concerned with scoring points and handing out contracts to cronies.

What the hell are you doing with your life? Stop it and live please

Greciangirl
Search in your local area. As I did.

Did anyone watch Extinction ... The facts this evening?
There was a serous warning that if we carry on as we are we could have a virus threatening us every decade.

Mooney59

What the hell are you doing with your life? Stop it and live please

If you're addressing me, I do have a life, thank you.

Growstuff. I couldn't agree with you more about testing. It is an absolute shambles. My 22 year old son has been isolating since last Tuesday as someone at his work had a son who tested positive and he had been near the parent. He started to feel ill and was sent home and told to isolate for 14 days. He spent 2 days trying to get tested and was offerred a 4 hour round trip, as he was feeling sick and dizzy it wasn't on. Eventually managed to get a postal test and returned it the same day,. Apparently there are designated fast track post boxes. He couldn't find one within 5 miles of where he lives. Now we hear there are over 100,000 test being sent abroad as our labs can't cope. World beating!!!!! No an absolute shambles. We truly are Led by donkeys.

Mooney59

What the hell are you doing with your life? Stop it and live please

At least we’re not trawling Internet forums reading threads so that we can be rude to people taking part in them #justsaying