Tiered Lockdown Not Enough

Its going to be another hard 6months regardless of what's put in place, people just aren't doing what they should.

Deeply sceptical. One day an expert says we are all going to die (like this one) the next another expert, equally academically respectable, says deaths will be low.

You pays your money and takes your choice. I am always on the side of the optimists. They are, usually better company.

M0nica - maybe, but we have to take advice at the moment and they have not been far wrong. When I first heard of the prediction of 60 thousand deaths it really seemed unbelievable but it has happened, excess deaths taking into consideration. Now we are going into the second wave and it's building as they said it would.

I personally think we shouldn't be doing the Tier thing..a 3week national lockdown would have been better...

I think it will be a national lockdown before long the way things are going.
What's worrying the politicians is the economy----but if they'd done 3 months lockdown in March we might have been like China is now, Covid free, with all their millions population, plus they're reaping the rewards with their economy now. It's ironic to think that where the virus began it's now affecting us badly a year on.

We in the Wirral have joined Liverpool on tier 3 and things are bad in the Liverpool hospitals without reaching a peak so it's scary right now.

Thank goodness for Andy Burnham speaking up about the North/South divide as we've obviously been sent the wrong messages about all this and now being fobbed off with the wrong amount of money that's supposed to prop up all the businesses and sustain those who are out of work with bills to pay.

I’m all for a UK lockdown now, stick another tax hike on the better off and I include ourselves in this, but how to judge who can afford it, I don’t know.

Daisymae apart form anything else, many of those who died in the first wave would live in this wave because when COVID struck, it was entirely new and doctors just did not know how to treat patients with it. Since then as we know there are drugs tried and tested, techniques and equipment tried and tested and you have only to look at the way hospital admissions and deaths have not risen in proportion to new cases reported compared to earlier this year to see how those now becoming ill have benefitted.

Secondly, and this is brutal, most of the weakest and the illest in society died in the first few months. These were mainly in care homes where homes were forced to take back from hospital residents with the disease, there was inadequate testing and severe shortages of PPE. Care homes now have fewer residents and I would suspecct that they are generally healthier on average than before COVID struck and adequate testing and protective clothing is available.

Yesterday it was reported that 26,000 more people have died at home over the last six months than over the same time last year, very few of those died of COVID. The others died from heart attacks, strokes, cancer and diabetes, mainly because they were too afraid to go to hospital or because they were denied timely care and treatment because of the way everything was being concentrated on COVID.

My daughter was nearly one of them, when inadequate attention and time was given to make all the checks that she should have had when she tried to see a GP and a minor problem had become life threatening by the time her GP sent her for appropriate tests.

Taking everything all in all, I can see no reason, unless the virus mutates and none of the therapies now in use are of any use on the mutated virus, why deaths this time round should be other than a fraction of the number of deaths we had earlier in the years.

The October spike was predicted months ago.
Plans should have been made well before now.

Problem is, we have the usual winter ills thrown in on top of the virus and we know that ills at this time of year produce a lot of fatalities alone.

Common sense really---keep away from crowds/ buses/ trains.
An ordinary cold in one person can create a life-threatening illness in another.
If you're in tier 3 like here you can't meet anyone anyway so no need to go out except for groceries, locally. It's still risky .

They were interviewing people on the street on our regional tea time TV news (NW). When asked about Christmas EVERY ONE said that they would be breaking rules (if they are in place), in order to spend time with friends and family. I predict an enormous spike in January, and what would be the point in us all locking down now if we know this is on the horizon?

How foolish GrandmaKT as most are at their lowest ebb through stress at Christmas with one thing and another so will be open to whatever's flying around. Crowds shopping, no thanks.

I won't be breaking any rules at all. It'll be a year since I saw my youngest GGC but if I abide by the rules I'll be here to see them next year sometime.
I'm more concerned in keeping myself well than bothering about Christmas. It'll come and go like any other day.

What we have now is the legacy left behind from summer when there was a laxed period. You reap what you sow.

Sad to think how this government thinks----only the fittest and wealthiest survive, by keeping the South away from the North. As said, but not in as many words, by Rebecca Long-Bailey---Labour for Salford.

Test and trace has cost millions but schoolchildren will be deprived of free school meals. Does this make sense since the T and T has failed ?

Why should something like a pandemic be made political ?

What we have now is the legacy left behind from summer when there was a laxed period. You reap what you sow

Sadly I agree Ellen. I think much of the "community spirit" and "we are all in this together" has been squandered in recent months. People just don't know who or what to believe really and I think trust has gone.

I don't think it's as much about politics as it is about numbers.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54250626

If the figures were reversed, it would be the southern regions in tier 3.

Taking everything all in all, I can see no reason, unless the virus mutates and none of the therapies now in use are of any use on the mutated virus, why deaths this time round should be other than a fraction of the number of deaths we had earlier in the years.

We're now up to 1,000 deaths over the past 7 days and that is just the 28 day ones. We're at the same level as early June when all covid related deaths were being reported. And the numbers are rising.

I don't think that the problem of Long Covid is being given sufficient attention, either. Even if deaths turn out to be relatively fewer because of improvements in treatment (and, as MOnica so charmingly points out, 'the illest and weakest' went in the first few months) a very significant number of people have been left with life changing debility.

I agree with Madgran77. Trust has gone. Even if we were to have a 2 or 3 week 'circuit breaker' I don't think that the compliance rate would be anything like as high as that of the spring.

I'm not sure that optimism is particularly well founded at the moment.

MaizieD Nothing charming about it. I said it was brutal, but it was accurate.

Half term looms.
Holidays have been booked so should Tier 3 families travel?
The government says you should avoid travelling into or out of a Tier 3 area

South west news today reports of places almost fully booked, particularly Cornwall. Some are refunding or moving dates for those from Tier 3 areas. Others are not as the government hasn’t says they can’t travel.

Tier Three shouldn’t be allowed to travel, but it would be too hard to police, so it’s just a guideline.

I tend to look at the figures before bed which is probably ruining my sleep. If you take tests out because we couldn't know how many were positive in the first wave, on hospital figures we are not looking good. The amount of hospital admissions, people in hospital total and people on ventilators is about a third of what it was at the peak of the first wave. If we keep going at this rate we will soon be in big trouble again.

Sorry I know that's very morbid. Stay safe everyone

I can see every reason why deaths will continue to climb. As has been pointed out the infections that were mainly in the younger population are spreading to the elderly, plus it's getting colder and everything that means. The idea the mist frail have died doesn't stack as obviously there are others taking their place as time marches on. I hope that all the predictions are wrong, time will tell.

Yet other experts claim that lockdowns are not the best way to go.

When we hear the latest death toll on the evening news, I wish it was possible to be told how many of the dead died OF covid and not just WITH it.
That would give us a much more accurate idea of how much the NHS should be concentrating on covid at the expense of other illnesses.

Also we are told how many people were admitted to hospital on any given day but not how many were discharged, having recovered.

The figures on discharges are available, although not that readily. The problem is that it's not possible to say people have fully recovered when discharged. We don't know yet enough about the after-effects.

The PHE figures are those of people where Covid was the primary cause of death. The ONS figures includes those where Covid was mentioned, although possibly not the primary cause of death, so are slightly higher, but not much.

If somebody has heart disease and has Covid, but dies of a heart attack, have they died from Covid or not? That person could have lived for many more years. There are also people who die at home, who have never been tested positive for Covid, although it was the cause of death. They probably balance out.

In any case, are you seriously suggesting that people shouldn't be treated for Covid to free up beds? It's a killer disease, however many people have died from it as a primary cause.

Daisymae you are not taking into account the enormous progress in medical treatments, both drugs, therapies and equipment, since the first round of deaths.