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Why are there around thirty thousand new COVID-19 cases reported every day in the UK?

(149 Posts)
ElderlyPerson Wed 22-Sep-21 16:31:43

I may be missing something that is well-known to others or perhaps seen as obvious, but I am genuinely puzzled as to why, with the pandemic having been a top public concern for 18 months now, there are around thirty thousand new cases being reported every day in the UK.

Is there an answer?

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 07:43:50

Just out of interest GG13, why are you hesitant about vaccination for under 16s? I would have thought the evidence in favour was pretty robust by now?
Some of my granddaughter's friends have been quite unwell and anecdotally, I know of several teenagers with Long Covid.
I would absolutely trust our excellent French health system to have picked up problems if there had been issues in a campaign for 12-17 year olds that started at the beginning of June. Take-up has been very high.

Josianne Thu 23-Sep-21 07:46:54

muffinthemoo

It spreads in schools, particularly settings for younger children, like wildfire. The majority of those kids are either completely asymptomatic or lightly sniffly.

What more can be done with this age group though? Younger children cannot be expected to take the same precautions in their daily lives, they act instinctively and the last thing we want is to put constant fear into them. I have visited 2 schools this week to pick up DGC and as much as possible the children have been outside but that can't last forever. There are no longer separate one way entrances and no longer restrictions on clothing or baggage from home, it is business as normal. Last Saturday DGD had a party with 12 excitable classmates and there was no way anyone could enforce any kind of rules.
It will be a long time coming, if ever, that under 12s get vaccinated.

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 08:02:27

The group which is most affected consists of 10-19 year olds, not primary age children.

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 08:05:47

I think the under 12s may start fairly soon here Josianne.
All the children wear masks in school, even the 4 year olds.
French children have had the least time out of school anywhere in Europe since the start of the pandemic. This counts for a lot in terms of educational opportunity, especially for those from poorer backgrounds and where educational attainment is historically lower.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 23-Sep-21 08:10:44

I am concerned about the side effects of the vaccine on under 16’s. There are concerns regarding cardiomyoits after vaccination in this age group as more data comes in.

(I gave GC in this age group, and there is no way I would dissuade/persuade their parents either way. The decision is theirs and theirs alone)

Casdon Thu 23-Sep-21 08:12:36

Primary age children numbers are still high though, as are people in their forties and fifties who may well be parents who have picked it up from their school age children. A primary school in Wales is closed this week because 40% of children and 50% of teachers have been affected. The likelihood is that most young children will catch it before any vaccination programme for them starts isn’t it?

Josianne Thu 23-Sep-21 08:17:12

All the children wear masks in school, even the 4 year olds.
I don't like that idea Mamie. I'm sure that French children are getting used to it as UK kids would, but it is totally alien to teaching young ones. Studies have shown that Year 1 and 2 are the years where education has suffered the most in terms of learning, and to add more complications will make things worse.

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 08:23:25

Even the JVCI wrote in its report that the risk of 12-15 year olds being seriously affected by Covid is higher than any side effects. That's before taking into account disruption to education and the possibly lower transmission to others.

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 08:24:34

Josianne

^All the children wear masks in school, even the 4 year olds.^
I don't like that idea Mamie. I'm sure that French children are getting used to it as UK kids would, but it is totally alien to teaching young ones. Studies have shown that Year 1 and 2 are the years where education has suffered the most in terms of learning, and to add more complications will make things worse.

OK, but nobody will tell the virus to stop infecting them,so their education will be disrupted even more.

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 08:25:24

Casdon That seems to be the intention.

Sparklefizz Thu 23-Sep-21 08:26:04

Schools - my daughter is a secondary school teacher and says that staff and students have been dropping like flies since the start of term.

Urmstongran Thu 23-Sep-21 08:32:01

’We test more" sounds more like an excuse to me?’
I beg to differ Mamie.

As an example, our two daughters work full time. One is a teacher and one works within the NHS as a speech and language therapist. Both have to have bi-weekly mandatory lateral flow tests and have been doing this (alongside all their colleagues) for months now.

This is not a pre-requisite for going to work in Spain! A teacher I know over here was amazed at what we were doing when I told her.

As I said earlier, ‘test and ye shall find’. Some people will be testing positive whilst asymptomatic. So the UK will be recording these cases whilst in Europe the asymptomatic cases are not being captured! No wonder our figures look so high.

Jaxjacky Thu 23-Sep-21 08:49:51

Urmstongran my daughter too and both GC’s, 14 and 8 test twice a week.

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 08:59:32

Spain currently has an average of 2,653 cases being reported every day. That's less then a tenth of the cases in the UK. Do you honestly think the difference can be explained by more testing?

growstuff Thu 23-Sep-21 09:01:34

PS. 75% of 12-19 year olds in Spain have been vaccinated.

english.elpais.com/society/2021-09-07/as-school-year-begins-in-spain-75-of-adolescents-have-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine.html

GrannyGravy13 Thu 23-Sep-21 09:03:54

Two of my GC have been testing twice a week for over a year now.

Thousands of people with Covid show no symptoms (a symptomatic), these cases are not reported in other Countries as there is no requirement for testing people without symptoms.

A positive test is not a given that you will be ill with Covid in every circumstance.

GrannyGravy13 Thu 23-Sep-21 09:05:38

growstuff

PS. 75% of 12-19 year olds in Spain have been vaccinated.

english.elpais.com/society/2021-09-07/as-school-year-begins-in-spain-75-of-adolescents-have-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine.html

Vaccination only reduces the severity of symptoms it is not a magic potion that prevents transmission or infection ergo how many have Covid but haven’t tested?

Casdon Thu 23-Sep-21 09:06:05

It’s not just that the UK is testing more, which is true. At the moment there is a high country wide prevalence here, and our death rate is also higher than it is in Europe.
Unfortunately for France and other countries that doesn’t mean the same won’t happen there in a few weeks or months time.

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 09:17:10

The difference here Casdon is that a higher percentage of the population has been vaccinated, masks are worn and the pass sanitaire is used everywhere. This is not to say that a new variant cannot change things very quickly. Equally having these measures in place has made a major difference as opposed to not having them. Some of the measures are due to be eased soon for départements with cases under 50 per 100,000. They will be monitored very closely and measures put back in the event of a rise in cases.
Isn't that how it should be?

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 09:19:52

My GD in England self tests twice a day every day. She is so desperate to be vaccinated that she has booked it for her sixteenth birthday this month. She wants to study medicine and knows that she cannot afford to lose school time to Long Covid.

MaizieD Thu 23-Sep-21 09:20:04

GrannyGravy13

I am concerned about the side effects of the vaccine on under 16’s. There are concerns regarding cardiomyoits after vaccination in this age group as more data comes in.

(I gave GC in this age group, and there is no way I would dissuade/persuade their parents either way. The decision is theirs and theirs alone)

Who is voicing these concerns, GG13?

I ask because there is evidence of a highly organised network of antivaxxers targetting parents and lobbying the government to prevent the vaccination of children. Names to look for are the Hart group and Us for Them (u4T)

If you are on twitter I suggest that you look at this thread from July:

twitter.com/karamballes/status/1420044490308476940

Karam is very concerned at the involvement of former Cambridge Analytica employees. This is a psyops campaign, not just a 'concerned parents' group. Also, it links back to the Great Barrington Declaration. It seems to be highly influential with right wing MPs.

twitter.com/karamballes/status/1440366433565691912

On the topic of cardiomyotis

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1439868149587927040

Alegrias1 Thu 23-Sep-21 09:21:16

I don't think the tiny difference in vaccination rates is what is making the difference.

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 09:32:30

Well I think it might be Alegrias1 because of the high percentage of 12-17 year olds now vaccinated. We do have data for all the départements by age range and you can see the impact on cases in that age range very clearly. The last wave in late spring / early summer here was very much concentrated in younger people. This is why the pass sanitaire has been so effective in getting young people vaccinated. Vaccines here are only four weeks apart.
You can see it on the table here for our département.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/?dep=14

Alegrias1 Thu 23-Sep-21 09:33:50

That's not rate then, it's distribution. Could well be that.

Mamie Thu 23-Sep-21 09:52:40

I think the vaccination percentage depends on the difference between counting population and eligible population. France tends to do mostly the former the UK the latter as far as I can tell.