Covid information

Good news my DS and GC live in Hove.

Next door Adur is 0.3%

Worthing 0.3%

Arun 0.1%

And for all those who thing schools going back is not an issue, see this graph. The numbers are, as yet, small, but if it doubles every week, we’ll soon be in a mess again.

WRT schools going back, apparently the government guidance now says that there is no need for children to be socially distancing.

(In fact, it said that there's never been a need for them to socially distance. To the huge and of teachers and head teachers alike...who spent hours and hours rearranging their classrooms and other school spaces)

Conwy county at .5, Gwynedd .5 and Anglesey up to .8 , after 200 chicken factory workers tested positive.

0.5 is still high, especially if it's not going down, which means that newly infected people are replacing those who have recovered or died.

It means that if you go into an area where there are 200 people (eg a cinema or a high street), one of those people is likely to be infected. If that person happens to stand too close to you and says something to you while staring you in the face, there's a chance you will be infected too.

It needs to be much lower and all contacts traced and isolated as soon as possible (preferably within hours).

Whitewave 0.5 isn't the R rate for Brighton and Hove. It's the percentage of 20-69 year olds who are currently showing symptoms. If it's not going down, that means that the R rate is 1, ie one person is infecting one other person. If it continues like that, it will never be eradicated. You need to see a steady reduction in the percentage of infected people.

growstuff thank you for that. I obviously didn’t understand what I’m reading.

So daily new cases across UK

2341

Total predicted to have covid in U.K.

127036

This table I’ve copied from Cambridge university figures showing the current R across England
It’s a bit rubbish but I couldn’t get it to work properly. it shows the median figure is just below 1 with the highest being the South West and the lowest being the North East and Yorkshire.

RegionMedian95% CrI (lower)95% CrI (upper)
1East_of_England0.800.601.01
2London0.870.671.12
3Midlands0.820.641.01
4North_East_and_Yorkshire0.760.580.95
5North_West0.840.691.02
6South_East0.770.590.96
7South_West0.940.691.21

So with my knew knowledge?

The estimated % of 20-69 year olds with covid in Brighton and Hove has gone done from 0.5 to 0.4.

If you haven’t got access to these figures and want to know what the % is in your area I can give them to you.

I apologise for that rubbish table above. I’ll try to do better next time.

Thank you for this. Interesting and helpful.

Whitewavemark2

So with my knew knowledge?

The estimated % of 20-69 year olds with covid in Brighton and Hove has gone done from 0.5 to 0.4.

If you haven’t got access to these figures and want to know what the % is in your area I can give them to you.

I apologise for that rubbish table above. I’ll try to do better next time.

An R rate between 0.7 and 0.9 is far too high to relax restrictions. It doesn't take much to push the value over 1, which then means cases are increasing exponentially again.

Having said that, the R rate doesn't tell the whole story. Although the R rate is high in the South West, there are relatively few cases, so the chances of being infected are much lower in the South West than they are in other parts of the country.

For myself, I've found the percentage showing symptoms more useful. 0.5% means that one in two hundred people 20-69 year olds is infected. That excludes most people in care homes, where it's known the rate is much higher.

I think to myself that if I leave the house, the chances are that one in 200 of the people I see is infected. Even if those showing symptoms are already quarantining themselves, there will be others who are still asymptomatic but infectious.

I know that if I were to do what I usually do on a Saturday morning (go to the market, go to the supermarket, fill up the car), I would easily see 200 people. Sometimes people bump into you or even stop to talk. Any of those people could be infected. Maybe that's OK if you're not too bothered about catching something and are prepared to live with the consequences, but my health conditions mean that I'm just not prepared to take the risk.

Having ventured out once, I won't be going again until almost no people are showing symptoms. Then I'll still be taking every precaution I can.

Daily new cases - the figure is same as yesterday, so I assume it hasn’t been updated.

Predicted total cases in U.K.
123964

Down from yesterday.

Brighton and Hove % of 20-69 yr olds with covid remains at 0.4%

The R growth rate is between 0.7-0.9

Still high.

It doesn’t seem to be moving.