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Science/nature/environment

Weather forecasts are not what they use to be

(16 Posts)
M0nica Sun 14-Mar-21 21:57:52

I am sitting here looking at the the Met Office weather forecast for my locality. It informs me it is light cloud and the chance of rain is only 10% and no rain is likely until mid morning.

What is actually happening is that it is tipping down with rain, has been for an hour and shows no sign of stopping. This is not the first time the weather on the ground has been totally at odds with the weather in the forecast. It is becoming more and more frequent

There was a time when weather forecasting was reasonably accurate. I know it cannot be perfect and is constantly revised, but for the last couple of years any similarity between the weather in the forecast and even the weather actually happening has become pure coincidence.

I have just replaced the BBC weather forecast with the Met Office forecast hoping it would be nore reliable, but it isn't

keepingquiet Sun 14-Mar-21 22:01:46

That's because they are the same.

grandmajet Sun 14-Mar-21 22:04:20

Accuweather seems to be the most accurate in my experience.
Although any forecast by Tomasz Shafernaker is fine by me!

Gelisajams Sun 14-Mar-21 22:06:10

Being a professional gardener, inaccurate weather forecasts are the bane of my life. I have 5 different apps which often give a completely different forecast. Even the 2 satellite apps give different predictions. Only if they all say the same thing can I be sure of the forecast be it wet or dry. I sometimes think hanging a feather from the window would be more accurate. Despite all the fancy computers I think the daily accuracy is less now than it used to be when charts and experience were used.

M0nica Sun 14-Mar-21 22:14:17

keepingquiet The BBC no longer use the Met Office, they moved to one of the commercial forecasters a couple of years ago.

Callistemon Sun 14-Mar-21 22:15:06

We watch two different regional weather forecasts. The BBC West Country weather forecaster stands on the roof so he can see what kind of weather is approaching. It's probably more accurate than others.

Gwyneth Sun 14-Mar-21 22:15:44

I often feel that weather forecasters are more concerned with their actual presentation rather than providing accurate information. I find the dramatic hand gesturing irritating and distracting and some of the vocabulary used silly. That said I like the forecaster on Look North but his name escapes me for the moment!

NotTooOld Sun 14-Mar-21 22:17:25

I agree, the weather forecasts are useless nowadays. No idea why. With all the expensive equipment I'm sure they must have you would think they could do a lot better.

keepingquiet Sun 14-Mar-21 22:17:55

M0nica

keepingquiet The BBC no longer use the Met Office, they moved to one of the commercial forecasters a couple of years ago.

My mistake- I thought it was the other way round!

MiniMoon Sun 14-Mar-21 22:43:39

My DD uses the Norwegian weather forecast. We live in Northumberland, and she reckons that it is more accurate than the Met Office.
I find that for day to day forecasts, Alexa on my smart speaker is spot on.

FannyCornforth Mon 15-Mar-21 04:40:29

NotTooOld

I agree, the weather forecasts are useless nowadays. No idea why. With all the expensive equipment I'm sure they must have you would think they could do a lot better.

It's a Covid thing.
Honestly.
They get an awful lot of data from aircraft, and there aren't as many flights happening due to the pandemic.
I was on a thread on Mumsnet about this a while ago.
I wish that I could give you a more detailed answer, but I'm not scientifically minded and can't remember that much!

Calendargirl Mon 15-Mar-21 07:45:47

I like the forecaster on Look North, but his name escapes me for the moment

Paul Hudson.

gt66 Mon 15-Mar-21 08:44:57

Oh how I agree with this! It's worse since they (BBC) changed from a 5 day forecast, to a 2 week one. It's never accurate, so why bother, as it only makes people cross when it's wrong?

I check out www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar for what's happening on the day.

Greyduster Mon 15-Mar-21 09:01:28

This drives me absolutely potty. I commented to a friend recently that they ought to be paid by results! I understand that because they are not getting as much data from aircraft that it impacts on their forecasting, but why such wide disparities? And yes, Paul Hudson’s forecasts are usually very good. So are John Mitchell’s.

FannyCornforth Mon 15-Mar-21 09:12:26

MiniMoon

My DD uses the Norwegian weather forecast. We live in Northumberland, and she reckons that it is more accurate than the Met Office.
I find that for day to day forecasts, Alexa on my smart speaker is spot on.

Yes, I totally agree about Alexa.
She tells you exactly when it's going to rain!
I wonder where she gets her data from?

M0nica Mon 15-Mar-21 10:30:26

They get an awful lot of data from aircraft, and there aren't as many flights happening due to the pandemic.

Most of their data comes from informtion on the ground, weather balloons, computer calculations and from foreign weather services through an international sharing agreement.

Yes, they get data from airoplanes as well, but it seems to me that the more data they have the less accurate the forecast.