Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/29/care-homes-refusing-to-take-in-patients-discharged-nhs-hospitals-coronavirus-risk?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3_9GO0w_NHeiXdRY_-uO5MTjs_xovuecbvzQKM558lN0cEYpijqVGOLQs#Echobox=1585474272
^ this will HUGELY inflate our hospital death numbers

There will also be people who tested positive for covid IN hospital, and then went home to die.

This is happening in some countries and not in others.

But whatever a coroner would say, the figures we have are clear in two regards - it’s everyone who dies in hospital AND has tested positive. The figures do not take into account the difference between dying with and dying from.

If you survived the crash but were told that you will die without further surgery, and you decline that surgery and opt for palliative care only. Your death wont be registered as unplanned at all.

This is a crude example:
You test Civid +ive and die in a car crash on your way home from the drive thru screening.

If the Covid made you suddenly short of breath on the drive home, which may have caused you to crash, covid may be listed as secondary. Or it may not.

If another driver caused the crash, your covid status probably wont be on your death certificate.

If you survived the crash with a bad injury, and the covid made you unable to survive the treatment for that, it would definitely be on your death certificate.

I don't know if deaths are registered as being caused by the virus when the person died with it and not from it

There are always discrepancies from one coroners area to another, and between doctors in the same area.

Some may always list Covid as a secondary cause if the person was +ive

Some would not list Covid +ive if there was certainty that the death was caused by something else and not speeded up by Covid.

We have seen this challenged before with MRSA where families whose relatives had MRSA wanted it listed as a cause of death when the Drs or Coroners disagreed that the MRSA status contributed to the deaths.

Pike has now said his 5700 figure is wrong - it will be higher

There seems to be some question now about the information given to Governments by some experts and that such drastic measures may indeed be counter productive.
I don't know if deaths are registered as being caused by the virus when the person died with it and not from it. There are discrepancies as others have pointed out.

Unplanned death is a Coroner's court term.

The difference between someone being registered as a planned or unplanned death can be down to things like whether they have been seen by a doctor and made officially palliative or not.

Are you saying GPS are making lists of people who should be left at home to take their chances? I’m picturing a busy GP going through all her patients and putting them into two piles.

This should happen anyway. Its best practice. Someone who is dying anyway at home and who wouldnt have treatment if admitted to hospital (because they dont want it or because theyre too frail to survive it), should already have a note on the system telling paramedics not to admit them (only for Drs to say, nothing can be done send them home)

It SHOULD already be in place. But it isnt always. GPs are trying to plug those gaps now

I think it would be silly to take literally phrases such as "unplanned" and "planned" in this scenario.

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death

Guessing here but I suspect it refers to people who would not have been expected to die with covid let alone due to it but do die nonetheless. Surprising victims.

These are different people from those who are definitely at risk of dying with the disease because they already have health issues that make them vulnerable to further infection and more likely, therefore, to die. Less surprising victims.

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death? Are there planned covid deaths then?

Its about how deaths are registered and whether they go through the coroner etc.

Its a technical term and is how it happens regardless of covid.

Yes people who are CV+ive may well be registered as a "planned" death: they might have already been under paliative care before catching CV!

52bright
I agree with you, however the deaths are counted, and it does seem that different countries are using slightly different ways to count, nonetheless the projected numbers are frightening.

With reference to notanan's recent post:

John Lee discusses the difference between dying with covid19 and dying due to it.

There is a very good article in The Spectator this week, by John Lee (a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist) explaining the problems with what the mainstream media publishes about covid numbers and why it is easy to be confused.

He reckons the number of infections is vastly under-estimated, that the number of deaths is vastly over-estimated, and that the time scale of the disease matters.

This is his concluding paragraph:
The UK and other governments have no control over how their data is reported, but they can minimise the potential for misinterpretation by making absolutely clear what its figures are, and what they are not. After this episode is over, there is a clear need for an internationally coordinated update of how deaths are attributed and recorded, to enable us to better understand what is happening more clearly, when we need to.

What on earth is an ‘unplanned’ covid death? Are there planned covid deaths then?

Are you saying GPS are making lists of people who should be left at home to take their chances? I’m picturing a busy GP going through all her patients and putting them into two piles.

If we tested everyone there would be +ive people who are dying of other causes. Some countries are cotaining them all on same covid wards. UK is trying not to.

Etc

Once palliative care is involved, so long as theres no safeguarding concerns etc. A death wont go to coroners court or be recorded as an "unplanned" covid death.

Some people would never survive ventillation. UK is still admitting these people then trying to get them back home.

Now GPs are urgently trying to register everyone who shouldnt be admitted at all. Which will change our numbers again

E.g. one country may say, lets not admit dying people from nursing homes who already have an advanced care plan. As we wont be treating them in ITU and its kinder to die at home than in an isolation ward. They are put under palliative care. Their death is not registered as an unplanned death. So no tests run etc.

Another country admits all suspected covid cases in an attempt to contain it. All are tested. All get registered as "unplanned deaths"

Neither way is wrong or cheating.
Both have valid rationalles.
Different numbers.

It's not "cheating"
It's that one set of numbers arent necessarily comparible to another set of numbers IYKWIM.

You first have to make sure you are comparing like for like.

Its about the way its recorded, and if its recorded whether its recorded as primary or secondary cause etc.

Its not "cheating" its about understanding the numbers

The really sensible thing in terms of future learning is obviously to record the COVID test result and any of the conditions that make someone vulnerable.These figures can then be crunched later and may be useful for example in prioritising being vaccinated when the vaccine is available

not thanks for replying. Sorry if I hadn’t made it clear but I have been talking about number of deaths. The death rates are very flawed aren’t they as they depend entirely on the type of testing regime each country has in place. On worldometers I’ve been looking at deaths per million of the population but I know that’s not perfect either. But I still haven’t seen anything authoritative that says Germany is reporting differently. I accept that no country’s figures will be perfect - that’s not possible of course.

Out

You say Germany is ‘cheating’? They are accepting patients from Italy to help put.