Confused. Projected uk death rate due to Coronavirus.

That’s good news Whitewave.

Yes, it is too early but fingers crossed suzie

Chinese medics have arrived to give assistance ?

Deaths down for two days in a row - too early to get overly optimistic but...

Yes, it’s early days yet. I also think we’ll get a better picture as the weeks go by. Even next week will give us a better picture. It certainly appears to me that twenty thousand is more realistic than five thousand. What horrible news this is.

Here it is - you can see from the headline despite the paywall. He’s also put it on his Twitter
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-scientist-who-predicted-5-700-deaths-now-says-final-toll-will-be-much-higher-k07xpgcvp

Grannie I posted earlier that the author of the figures reported in the Times has changed his mind and now says they are too low.Thats not to say of course that 20000 is the alternative - we’ll have a better idea in 2-3 weeks.

The Times figure looks more realistic than 20,000+.

At the moment, they're trying to keep people indoors and it doesn't seem to be working so well in too many cases. So are they putting the frighteners on?

They've also got to find a way to justify extending the lockdown.

It's one of the considerations that goes into public health planning and vaccines: some vaccines are better than others.

Not all "immunities" are equal

Thanks notanan & grannylaine

TB: some people develop lasting immunity others don't (not a virus I know)

They don't KNOW that healthworkers are okay to come back when "immune". Some viruses and infections weaken you, especially respiratory ones, and make you more susceptable to reinfection or other infections.

We just do not know yet

Sorry, crossed posts.

janeainsworth from this afternoon's press briefing, I understood them to say because it is a new virus, it's unclear how long immunity takes to develop or lasts. Once fever has subsided they are thought not to be infectious though the cough can last some weeks. Even someone who is immune can pick up viral load on their hands for example and infect someone else. As far as hospital staff are concerned, because they wear protective gear and use barrier nursing techniques they will be okay as long as they have been deemed fit to be at work.

For example with some viruses, a pregnant mothers immunity doesnt necessarily protect their unborn from virus damage. It depends on how/when the body recognises the virus

People

Yes peoppe with "immunity" can still transmit and shed. We know this about other viruses.

I think that all CV immunity testing can offer at this point is false senses of security

We know that about other viruses
We dont know enough about CV19 to be reassured by having had it and being momentarily "immune"

E.g. shingles after chickenpox (and you can get chicken pox more than once too), norovirus immunity only lasting 2 weeks etc

Notanan do you mean that people who’ve had the virus could be re-infected themselves, or that they could still have the virus and infect others, or both?
And where does that leave hospital staff who are tested and given the green light to go back to work?
Just to be clear, I’m not having a go or anything (having recently been accused of such behaviour on another thread), I’m genuinely wondering.

Not only that but some viruses leave silent damage or "flair up" again.

Putting people on a "not covid, immune!" List doesnt allow for recording of these cases

Germany are now "signing off" people as immune when we dont know enough about cv19 immunity yet. So if those people catch pneumonia, they wont necessarily be retested.

Some other common viruses only give you days/weeks of immunity after catching them before the immunity wears off. So certifying people as immune is premature. And will further deflate their numbers

Surely planned death can only refer to suicide or murder?
or a visit to Switzerland
Not possible at the moment.

It may be granny I may have interchanged them x

Isn't the expression expected or unexpected death?

Surely planned death can only refer to suicide or murder?

As I say this would "artificially" hike up our hospital death numbers

This link might work better:
www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/29/care-homes-refusing-to-take-in-patients-discharged-nhs-hospitals-coronavirus-risk