How do they know?

Monica ??(one for each contribution!!)9

Bluebellwould
They don't know but according to the document given to SAGE they are moderately confident
There are other scientists who have a different view on the new virus.

Why do we always blame other people and never ourselves? Are we all so perfect and others so selfish?

My experience is that, yes, there are people ignoring the rules, but the majority are compliant. Most of the excess cases are in big towns and cities where population density is very high. If you live somewhere, where there are many more people everywhere, all of them needing to shop and eat, and get medications, fulfill important jobs like caring etc etc. Even if they all obey the rules meticulously the sheer proximity of so many people in a relatively small area, means there is going to be a higher transmission of any disease.

The viral load is heavier so you don’t need to be stood near an infected person for so long to increase your chances of getting it. It is debatable that it is as much as 70% and although it is here in the South West case numbers have dropped slightly so still some unexplainable for scientists to work on.

That makes sense to me Bluebelle.

Nothing can scupper my Christmas - change it, yes - scupper it? never.

Same here EllanVannin. I’ve pm’d you.

It appears that there is more virus per droplet which makes it easier to be infected
I m sure there’s a more scientific way of saying this but that’s how I understood it in words that’s make sense to me

Seems to me that herding cats would be a cinch , compared to containing this virus , with idiots thinking they are above the rules

Bluebellwould, 'they' don't know, they are just making educated guesses at this stage.

The BMJ article below includes the words:

'may, in theory, result in the virus becoming more infectious and spreading more easily between people'

A theory isn't a fact (not until the media get hold of it and misinterpret away).

I agree that the public's pre-Christmas behaviour could be the driving force of transmission.

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857

Tts right Ellan. I'm close to Northern Beaches and Christmas is ruined for so many. We Sydneysiders are not welcome anywhere.

Well if you didn’t WW there’s no hope for me!

It's scuppered my D's Christmas and everyone else's.

Where my D is in Oz---the Northern Beaches, an American brought the virus with him and the whole communities suffered. This chap knew he was infected but didn't say anything. How many times must this be happening ? He'd flown in from USA where it's rife, so he disobeyed the isolation period. It's all it takes.

Must be airborne. That's all I can think of. That being the case-------

My daughter explained everything to me earlier, but I didn’t understand it????

I’m no scientist but I think the clever people in Porton Down (PHE) have come to the conclusion that this new variant transmits 70% more easily. Fortunately they also think that the vaccine still works. How awful would things be if it didn’t? Doesn’t bear thinking about.

This is a useful article.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/19/what-is-the-new-covid-strain-and-will-vaccines-work-against-it?