TillyTrotter
It seems to be about 50:50. Good judgement when you have a few letters to play with, and Luck with the first word entered.
I don’t use the same starter word - with mixed results from 2/6 to 6/6 - but I try to begin with a 3 vowel word.
Having read a few articles about it, it seems to be generally considered that getting the work in less than four goes, is mainly luck. In my first two words today I got a vowel in my first word but not in the correct place, then three correct in my second word not including the vowel I already had. It was pretty impossible not to find it from that but there was very little skill involved. Other times I've found little of help in my first couple of words except to find a vowel and eliminate a few consonants, certainly not enough to make a sensible guess but it's a good way to start the day as by the third word the brain needs to start working!