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Oh no. Not another little Madeleine.

(86 Posts)
JO4 Tue 02-Oct-12 11:18:33

here

Anne58 Wed 03-Oct-12 10:11:33

The police have asked the volunteers to stand down and leave the search to the experts. I believe thay have also called on the RNLI inshore team and are searching the river banks.

FlicketyB Wed 03-Oct-12 22:24:00

Hunt, yes you are right. As with Soham the danger isn't the stranger, its the people you know, from family to neighbours.

absentgrana Thu 04-Oct-12 08:07:24

It goes from bad to worse. It has now been revealed that the little girl suffered from cerebral palsy and needed daily medication.

Notsogrand Thu 04-Oct-12 08:37:40

Does it seem likely that the man they have arrested has been the only adult involved in this? It's beginning to look like something a bit more organised. Harrowing, a complete nightmare.

Nanadogsbody Thu 04-Oct-12 08:58:29

If there is someone else involved it might mean that April is still alive at least. I've been so worried that she's been left alone and frightened with no food or warmth. I know it might mean worse things too but if there's any chance she's still alive....

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 09:50:56

Some tabloid newspapers have made play of the fact that the suspect has had a troubled past, several relationships, and poor employment history. I am not sure why they think this is relevant, other than just to blacken his name.

Notsogrand Thu 04-Oct-12 09:57:52

Not just the tabloids Greatnan. They may be using more OMG language & headlines, but the same information - plus his alleged weapon collection - is reported in the broadsheets.

absentgrana Thu 04-Oct-12 09:59:58

I have just realised that I have posted about April in past tense – shows what my subconscious is anticipating. I hope it's well and truly wrong.

whenim64 Thu 04-Oct-12 10:35:47

Greatnan the police will have profiled the suspect, along with other profiles and tests concerning the child and the demographics of offenders in that area, to try to narrow down the possibilities. One major criminal assessment looks at those factors that show higher risk when combined with other risk factors, and they get a score on each of the factors that indicates where to investigate further. Previous partners, employers, prison officers, probation officers or social workers may be interviewed, or come forward to say if anything concerned them about the suspect's behaviour in the past. You can be sure that every sentence uttered by the police in their bulletins has been put together in the light of these assessments and tests, to optimise the chance of triggering some nugget of information to help find the child.

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 10:43:52

Thanks, when, I always appreciate your knowledgeable information. I can see why they want to publicise the story in case people might have something useful to tell them, but it does sometimes seem that newspaper (not just the tabloids, I have had a quick look at some of the 'quality' papers now) believe that a poor relationship/employment history makes someone likely to commit this kind of crime.

Lilygran Thu 04-Oct-12 11:03:59

The Telegraph states that two of the children April was playing with earlier were the suspect's and that several children including April had a ride in his Landrover a few days ago. It's a very small place.

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 11:07:53

I don't think this is something that happens very often, fortunately. I am sure we can all remember most cases over the last ten years. We just hear more about it now. Sarah Payne was taken by a stranger, but in most cases the child was abducted/killed by either a member of the extended family or a family 'friend'.

whenim64 Thu 04-Oct-12 11:24:41

Yes, they're missing the point Greatnan. The risk factors were compiled in many different countries over two decades, then a meta-analysis of the re-occurring issues was used in North America, UK and Australia to develop testing and profiling by computer on the VISOR (Violent and Sexual Offending Register) police system. These risk factors like 'never been in a relationship for more than two years' or 'lost job because of disciplinary matters' have proved to be relevant in a significant number of cases (although Peter Sutcliffe would have got through the test relatively unscathed!) A clinical override has to be used throughout, to be sure the tail isn't wagging the dog and things are overlooked. This system was developed after Soham, and it's extremely sophisticated now. For example, the police will have fed in the given details about the time of day Alice was seen getting in a van, information about the vehicle, and anything else that can be profiled, and the suspect and several others, and their known vehicles, would have been thrown up for investigation in seconds. Each time more info comes in, like the possible places to look suggested by the public, they are fed into VISOR and more suspects will be identified. Of course, you only get out what is already in the data. Some offenders are not yet known to the authorities.

For some papers to condense all this into damning a sector of society because they are deprived, unemployed or not in a relationship is potty!

JO4 Thu 04-Oct-12 11:26:46

Hmm. That is an area - around Snowdonia way - that does seem to attract social misfits.

dorsetpennt Thu 04-Oct-12 14:39:23

Maybe she was with other children as Nanadogsbody has said, but 7.30pm on a dark evening, a school night too! Most children of her age are usually bathed and getting prepared for bedtime. She is only 5 years old, she shouldn't be in the care of other children. My children are in their 30's now but were not allowed to play outside in the front of the house at any time. All those years ago we weren't allowing our children out like we went out. There aren't any more paedophiles now then there were in our childhood, just that they are more mobile these days. It's horrible to think that we all know how this is going to end.

crimson Thu 04-Oct-12 15:19:49

If she went for a ride in the suspects car a few days prior to her abduction that might that not rule out any[dna] evidence they can get from the car now? And, could it have been planned that way?

Mamie Thu 04-Oct-12 16:20:58

I really don't think you can make sweeping statements about people like that jingle. It is a lovely town with very nice people. I have family who live close by. It isn't exactly what I would call Snowdonia either.

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 16:21:06

Message deleted by Gransnet.

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 16:24:12

When, I believe in the USA they put out an Amber Alert as soon as a child is reported missing, as the first hour is crucial. Do the UK police have anything similar in place?

JO4 Thu 04-Oct-12 16:24:57

I HAVE NOT TRIVIALISED THIS THREAD! DON'T BLOODY START THAT AGAIN!

HOW DARE YOU!!!

IWOULD NEVER DREAM OF TRIVIALISING THIS MATTER.

I am getting sick of your insults.

JO4 Thu 04-Oct-12 16:27:22

And Machynlleth is in South Snowdonia.

Fact!

And I did say Snowdonia. Not ASnowdon.

I know that area quite well actually as son was at uni in Bangor.

JO4 Thu 04-Oct-12 16:28:41

Message deleted by Gransnet.

JO4 Thu 04-Oct-12 16:31:18

Message deleted by Gransnet.

whenim64 Thu 04-Oct-12 16:37:51

Yes, Greatnan they have the same system as amber alert now, and use the statistics about 2/3 hours being crucial for getting alerts out, as abducted children have a higher likelihood of being tracked in that short space of time.

Greatnan Thu 04-Oct-12 16:52:37

That is good to know, When
Jingle, I have not asked for your post to be deleted, for the same reason.