The Conservative party is as split as the Labour party was in the early 1980s, between the extreme left wing and the centrist labour party group that later split off to form the Social Democratic party, later still merging with the Liberals to form the Lib Dems.
Now we have a Conservative party with a strong xenophobic, anti-European right wing and a centrist 'one nation' wing. In this case, when the party splits, the right wing already have a party, UKIP to defect to and perhaps the centrist group could join the Lib Dems to form the Lib Dem Cons!!