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The Ageing Population Timebomb - Myth or Fact?

(36 Posts)
HollyDaze Sun 16-Mar-14 13:39:39

If there is one thing that will get my goat quite quickly, it is politicians (worldwide it would seem) berating people for getting older and draining the country of every resource including housing and money.

I am amazed that they are amazed that all these older people exist - were they not expecting us? Did we just materialise one day in order to take up valuable living space and claim the overly generous pensions (said tongue in cheek) and lie in hospital beds because we haven't got the decency to die sooner?

I decided to look into it and, as usual, all is not as it seems on the surface.

From the 1970s/80s, the problem of the elderly has been put forward in order to bring about an anti-welfarist consensus in Anglo-American societies and it highlights some very important trends in society.

It coincides with the tendency to marginalize the elderly from the labour market and from society at large.

The real issue isn’t that there aren’t enough people capable of working to support an older population, it is more that, increasingly, older people find it difficult to find employment in order to support themselves. According to recently published figures, employment for older men has declined faster than any other age group. As a result, a third of men aged between 50 and 65 are now jobless in Britain. Demography has little to do with enforced early retirement. It is this shortening of working life which is likely to create difficulties for the economic position of the elderly.

Over the past 54 years, the United Kingdom - Age dependency ratio has remained fairly static beginning with 54% in 1960 and 51% in 2011. It peaked in the 1970s at close to 60% for most of the decade. The percentages shown put Britain in middle ranking worldwide for age dependency ratios.

The British government requested two reviews from Sir Derek Wanless but don’t appear to have adopted the recommendations made by Derek Wanless and The King’s Fund www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/wanless-review-calls-extra-money-and-new-funding-system

Canada has undergone the same process we are undergoing but with very different results: University of British Columbia health economist Morris Barer says Canadian researchers have known for more than 2 decades “that the aging of Canada’s population has a very small impact on Canadian health care costs and will continue to have a relatively small impact. Speaking to the Canadian Association of Health Services and Policy Research last year, Barer said his group alone had written 3 papers focusing on this subject over a period of 15 years but the concept of a demographic time bomb persists despite evidence to the contrary.

So given that no research exists to support the argument that the elderly are to blame, why does this persist? Is Canada managing its health service better than the UK does? Is it a way for governments to opt out of social welfare? Why do the counter-arguments never seem to gain as much airtime or column inches as the doomsayers?

Any thoughts?

(the above has been copied from various websites including Dominic Lawson on 'The Imaginary Timebomb' by Phil Mullan and the Canadian Health Service report)

Aka Wed 19-Mar-14 14:40:09

Mollie sample size 60,000.

HollyDaze Wed 19-Mar-14 11:46:27

Nonnie

Why do we blame politicians for this?

The first time I heard it used was by politicians in one of the speeches to either their party or the nation so maybe the media picked it up and ran with it - and ran with it and still run (as they tend to do - like little terriers with a bone!) with it even though it has been debunked as causal of the effect that they are claiming.

Nonnie Mon 17-Mar-14 17:02:59

Why do we blame politicians for this? I thought it was the media. I think we will find that the politicians won't slate us in the next year or so as we are the ones who vote. [cynical emoticon]

I read about a year ago that the theory that we will continue to live longer and longer has been challenged and may not be true.

FlicketyB Mon 17-Mar-14 16:35:56

Aka, I remember the WRVS report coming out and I noted at the time how little it was written about in the media compared with all those reports that say we are a burden on the state.

mollie65 Mon 17-Mar-14 14:58:50

aka I do realise it is a recognised methodology - I did statistics as part of my degree but I do question how from a smallish sample no matter how representative it is a great leap to suggest the 'natives' are not contributing as much as the 'immigrants' when there are many more of the 'natives' to be sampled.
always take any survey with a massive dose of incredulity. they did not appear to give the numbers questioned shock

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:59:44

My apologies Aka - I have only just spotted your link (with thanks to mollie65) and have had a quick look (but I would take most of what is written in the Huffington Post with a pinch of salt) so it would seem to come down to a contest of who is more accurate: Oxford or London.

To state that all immigrants are better educated than the local population is stretching things a bit too far - unless they have carried out mass testing (which, as far as I know, they haven't) how can they possibly know that? Or is it an endictment against our education system that it can be taken for granted?

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:54:44

Aka - I don't think I said it was your quote did I? You didn't state a source so if I had stated it was your comment, I would have been forgiven for doing so and without the source, we only have your word for its legitimacy.

My quote (that used the word 'notion',) was clearly stated as coming from Dr Anderson who is a senior research fellow at the Centre on Migration, Policy & Society at the University of Oxford - I'm pretty sure she will know what she's talking about wink

HollyDaze Mon 17-Mar-14 13:50:59

whatsgoingon - well said. You'd think from reading some of the posts on here that the white people of Britain wouldn't know how to work if their lives depended on it! Oh, and we all dodge tax apparently confused

On a personal level, I've known good and bad in several nationalities. I've found that where you are from makes very little difference to whether or not someone is a good contributor to society.

rosequartz Mon 17-Mar-14 12:02:15

How sharper than a serpent's tooth it is to have a thankless child

petallus Mon 17-Mar-14 11:41:48

They do say average life expectancy has gone up and is still going up, so there will be many more people reaching the age of 100 than there used to be.

Makes sense with the advances made in medical science and improvements in living standards.

I don't understand why we should take it personally and rage against it grin

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 09:39:21

and this though from 2007

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 09:33:31

there is this

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 09:30:06

A recognised methodology Mollie

Yes, it was interesting to read a report which looked at contribution rather that cost Flickety for a change.

I think there was a report somewhere about how much over 60s contribute to the economy. I'll see if I can find it.

Nelliemoser Mon 17-Mar-14 09:26:10

jinglebells grin Very true. I think that about the expression "Rapidly ageing population"!
Well! I for one am not ageing any faster than my little grandson. 24hrs a day is the going rate!
It's being picky but that particular sound bite really annoys me.

jinglbellsfrocks Mon 17-Mar-14 09:06:01

To have an ageing population, wouldn't babies have to be born slightly older than new?

FlicketyB Mon 17-Mar-14 09:02:40

All these reports are always one sided, they look at what we cost, but they do not look at what we contribute. People over 60 now account for 17% of the population.

Putting aside our contributions, still, in income tax, and in kind, in the provision of free childcare, there is the money we spend on a day to day basis on food, fuel, clothes, and everything else we spend our income from acupuncture to visiting zoos (with or without GCs). This amounts to billions of £s. How many shops, service suppliers, transport services and leisure providers, not to mention carers and health workers, manufacturers of almost every kind of item would close down, putting as many as a million people out of work were it not for our spending power, no matter how small our income.

Almost every product and service includes 20% VAT, then there is the domino affect of the loss of taxes from those made unemployed if we were not busy spending our money.

mollie65 Mon 17-Mar-14 08:05:29

did attempt to read the report aka but lots of very dodgy stats there and also the fact that CReAM uses FLS data which is based on 'A sample of households is selected at random from the Royal Mail's Postcode Address File.' - as always there are 'lies, d--n lies and statistics'

DebnCreme Mon 17-Mar-14 07:31:59

We are told to eat five fruit and veg, give up smoking, take regular exercise,etc. The upshot of all this does not appear to be a huge saving on the NHS; we still cannot afford it. Our life expectancy has increased which apparently also increases our drain on society. Not to worry, I suspect I shall be one to 'buck the trend'.

When I gave up smoking, one of the promises I made myself was that I would take it up again were I to reach the age of 70! In five and a half years I can have a cigarette.

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 07:22:21

However, we are straying from the OP.

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 07:20:53

'Children of immigrant families that I have taught' (fat morning fingers)

Aka Mon 17-Mar-14 07:20:02

Yes Jess my experiences of friends from different cultures and children if immigrant families that i habe taught back that up.

Sorry Holly This was not MY report but one from a reputable source and backed up by statistics, not 'notions'. What a strange term to use. Guff is the word I used about UKIP's philosophy but I could have used much stronger terminology.

whatsgoingon we were talking about qualifucations and paying tax. These are hard statistical facts which owe nothing to urban myths or 'notions'.

whatsgoingon Mon 17-Mar-14 06:59:02

This is a complete myth about immigrants working harder than British workers. The fact that we are all human means that we similar. Some workers regardless of their nationally will have a good work ethic. They will work hard, do the job to the best of their ability and pay their taxes.
Others will find every dodge they can to not do a days work.
I have had first hand of this experience over the last. 15 years or so.
The reason immigrants seem to work harder is because employers favour them above British employees, the reason being they are more likely to work for lower wages and put up with unreasonable working conditions.
As for them paying taxes to help the economy is of very little help as this is off set by the amount of money set back to their country to support their families. British workers would spend that money here, which would help to stimulate growth and perhaps create more jobs.
Also a lot of emigrants are hood winked into coming into this country illegally, promised a huge amount of money to work for cowardly faceless individuals and are then left to live in squalid accommodation and paid a fraction of what they are promised.

JessM Mon 17-Mar-14 06:41:47

Yup immigrants not only pay their own taxes (the vast majority of them) but they contribute to the commercial life of the country and its economic growth. My DH was not born in the UK, nor does he have a UK passport. Paid a fair bit of tax over the years personally and kept a business going through hard times so that employees continued to pay tax as well as the business.
Strikes me that immigrants (and their kids) are far more likely to start businesses than those who come from traditional white backgrounds. Just been to Manchester and in certain areas there are many rows of small businesses, all started by immigrants. Curry mile for a start. I was in the Science and Industry museum there as well reading about a very successful entrepreneur in the clothing industry who started several well known brands including jeans made in the UK. Born in India.
Pity none of the politicians are on this agenda rather than trying to divide young from old. (while Jeremy Hunt then lectures us about looking after older relatives...)

HollyDaze Sun 16-Mar-14 21:38:18

Aka - you may want to read the link I've just put on the relevant thread about UKIP that addresses the bit you've just put. You'll find it does not agree with you regarding your 'fact' that immigrants work harder and are better qualified and pay more taxes than British worker

'There is little doubt that many immigrants are extremely diligent and highly motivated. However, Dr Bridget Anderson pointed out that notions of good attitude and work ethic are "highly subjective and potentially simplistic.'

Her comments are in full on the link given (Dr Anderson is a senior research fellow at the Centre on Migration, Policy & Society at the University of Oxford)

Aka Sun 16-Mar-14 21:16:50

Hollydaze you haven't been listening to the guff given out by UKIP have you?

There is no 'problem' with immigrant workers per se and in fact many of them are better qualified and pay more taxes that average.

read on