Gransnet forums

News & politics

All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 14:23:39

Splendid letter from Dehlia Smith who supports Labour, talking about the NHS.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 14:14:32

good post varian, and I agree with you, others here will not.

Ana Mon 04-May-15 14:12:22

I wasn't talking about the financial crash and who or what caused it, Labour's continued reckless spending just made matters worse for the UK.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 14:12:02

Sigh! the Guardian again, oh well, it must be true then.hmm

varian Mon 04-May-15 14:09:56

As a Scottish granny living in another part of the UK, I had no say in the Scottish referendum and I was appalled at the way it was conducted. David Cameron almost handed it to the SNP on a plate, by letting them choose the date (Bannockburn anniversary), allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote and worst of all allowing the SNP to set the question "Do you want Scotland to be independent?" The question should have been "Do you want Scotland to remain part of the UK?" I believe that the result would then have been even more conclusive - not just 55% in favour of staying British but probably 75% or more. It is always easier to campaign for "yes" than "no".

Nicola Sturgeon often mentions her English granny. I had three Scottish grandparents and one who was half English, half Welsh. My grandchildren have Scots, English, Irish and Welsh blood, like so many British families, yet the SNP wants to make us foreigners in our own country.

I live in a marginal constituency where our excellent LibDem MP is retiring and I do not want to see him replaced by a Tory, but that is all the more likely to happen because of the apparent rise of the SNP. Voters down here do not want to see a Labour government propped up by separatists whose sole purpose is to destroy the United Kingdom. What happens in one part of our small island affects everyone else, so, please, if you are a Scottish granny living in Scotland (or a non-Scottish granny living in Scotland) vote for whoever can stop the SNP.

trisher Mon 04-May-15 14:05:23

Ana and roses you claim
The last Labour government left us in the doo-doo, the Conservatives and Lib Dems are getting us out of it,it could well take years and I'm sure it will, the Labour complaint is that the mess they created is not being cleared up quickly enough.
But that isn't necessarily so
www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/03/senior-tory-financial-crash-was-purely-a-banking-crisis-not-labour-overspend

annodomini Mon 04-May-15 14:00:21

Well said, mcem. That is what I was trying to say. If I was north of the Border, I'd be voting with you for a party whose policies resonate with my left of centre principles.
mishap, if you were quoting me, I didn't say that the SNP were 'nationally based'. My words were 'regionally based'.

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 13:58:18

Yes mcem. The amount of seats the SNP may get will be no more than the Libs got last time, and if Westminster can't control the potential breakup of the UK then in my opinion they are too wimpy for words and get all they deserve.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 13:41:34

To me too, Mishap

mcem Mon 04-May-15 13:37:13

If, as seems likely, SNP turn out to be the 3rd largest party at Westminster, I believe some of us might have to rethink the concept of 'underdog'.
I'm a Scot but will be voting for a progressive, left-of-centre party whose main push is for ending austerity.
On their agenda is also the move towards independence but at some time in the future.
It is NOT the immediate priority for Thursday.
I genuinely believe that a strong SNP presence will benefit the whole of the UK.
Then everyone who wanted Scotland to remain within the UK can congratulate themselves on achieving a good outcome!

Mishap Mon 04-May-15 13:32:08

I am not sure that the SNP could just be seen as "nationally based" - their brief is to become independent and thus break up the UK. I have no problem with their other policies and I admire NS, but having a large cohort of MPs in the BRITISH parliament who wish to create a situation where the United Kingdom ceases to be seems a bit dodgy to me.

whitewave Mon 04-May-15 12:36:13

I think we are getting it all a bit out of perspective with the tail wagging the dog bit. Look at the last coalition, there wasn't much accusation of the tail wagging the dog then, except perhaps from the extreme right wing of the Tories, and we wouldn't want them to have much say would we?

annodomini Mon 04-May-15 12:20:32

The SNP is not extremist - but perhaps you mean UKIP. SNP has social democratic policies and principles. As it happens to be regionally based, it iinevitably has the interests of Scotland at heart, but I would be very happy to see social democratic policies applied nation-wide.

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 12:14:28

Any extremist party fills me with fear and foreboding. We have not lived through extremism in the United Kingdom but we have seen the effects of it and fought against it, both right and left, and I would not like to see it come in by the back door.

I agree with your post granjura

Old fuddy duddies like DH and me could see that it would all end in tears.

FarNorth Mon 04-May-15 11:38:19

That concept is exaggerated and wrong and will not happen.

granjura Mon 04-May-15 11:13:08

See Durhamjen excellent article on the other (pictures what party to vote for) thread. I know many people in Banking who know that this is the truth, and will even say so in private, of course.

The Banking sector totally abused the responsibilities given to them by labour via Gordon Brown- and many made millions on the back of this abuse of trust.

As much as I love the underdog and Scotland- the concept of the tail wagging the dog, without the dog having any recourse, just seems exaggerated and wrong. How can the Scotts have full voting rights on English issues, and the English nought in exchange. And what about them having so much more rights than the Welsh too?

FarNorth Mon 04-May-15 11:01:25

That's a refreshing view to hear, trisher, and you could be right about the referendum result, who knows.
Ms Sturgeon gives the impression of being very capable and balanced and I'm hoping the SNP can make a useful contribution to UK government.
If the SNP has the opportunity to make useful changes at Westminster but fails to do that through their own fault, then I think their support will plummet dramatically.

trisher Mon 04-May-15 10:45:53

It's sort of off the subject but I wonder if any of our Scottish grans consider that the independence vote might have had a different result if Nicola Sturgeon had been the party leader then? She has so much more charisma than Alex Salmond.
I'm actually pleased that the SNP is a real left wing party and wish we had a similar one in England. The Greens do their best but NS is so much more of a professional leader.
I don't mind if the SNP holds the balance in a government of the UK

Soutra Mon 04-May-15 10:35:51

confused?

soontobe Mon 04-May-15 10:21:24

GT - peoples eyes and ears.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 10:14:45

I agree with you Rosequartz a moderate coalition without any extremist views would be ideal.We could not be sure we would be getting that, and it could be a problem.

rosesarered Mon 04-May-15 10:11:45

you perhaps DJen? We have moved on now.

durhamjen Mon 04-May-15 10:08:42

I think you are trying to make a bit too much out of what I said, roses, as usual.
Most people who are on the left think those on the right are wrong, and vice versa. Who's trying to bludgeon now?

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 10:07:20

I would prefer a moderate coalition without any extremist views, but could we depend on getting that?

rosequartz Mon 04-May-15 10:05:07

Just one 'another' confused myself (too much thinking about where to put my X)