Gransnet forums

News & politics

All bets are on!

(307 Posts)
whitewave Fri 01-May-15 09:58:37

Right I have had a look at the polls today and at the moment the Tories are likely to get more seats than the Labour by a margin of 9.
So Tories 276
Labour 267
Libs 26
UKIP 2
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 22

Given that a practical majority is 323, who do you think will be likely to be able to form a government and how will the coalition look?

My guess is if Labour steadfastly refuse to have anything to do with the SNP than the Tories will form a coalition of themselves plus libs and ukip which makes 276+26+2= 304 so they will need at least 19 more seats - not sure where these will come from though.

If however the SNP comply with Labour's manifesto (unlikely) than the next Government will be formed by a Labour coalition with a good working majority of Lab plus libs plus greens plus snp. So 267+26+1+56= 350.

However if the SNP can't comply with Labour than neither parties seem to be able to form a government so what then? Back to the drawing board?

I find this so interesting!!!! How sad am I?blush

Iam64 Sun 03-May-15 09:33:25

I'm with you whitewave, if the majority reject right wing politics it seems so wrong for the tories to continue to slash and burn public services. I'd prefer a referendum on the bed room tax over one on europe.

Ana Sun 03-May-15 10:57:47

I don't think the BBC or the Guardian will scream blue murder!

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 11:04:27

Most of the BBC political commentators are right wing. The Guardian is one newspaper.
I agree with you, whitewave and Iam64. I would like a referendum on the NHS or TTIP rather than the EU, although that would probably take too long to set up. In the meantime private healthcare will have won.

POGS Sun 03-May-15 12:10:54

That's funny I find them left wing.

Andrew Neil gives them all grief , quite rightly so.

whitewave Sun 03-May-15 12:30:39

Look at the political presenters and editors of the BBC and they are largely drawn from the right wing media or have stated right wing sympathies, so no I don't think the BBC is left wing.

However the press is slightly different -

Mirror Group - left of centre
Guardian - centre
Murdoch Group - right
Mail Group - right
Express - right
Telegraph - right
Standard- right
Independent - sits on the fence
The Sundays - all Tory except the Observer

So the Tories have a huge help from most of the media, no doubt they will be suitably grateful when the gongs are given out.

The combined voices of the right wing press is far larger than the left wing and so their voice is heard much more.

Ana Sun 03-May-15 12:33:26

The Guardian is CENTRE??? Don't make me laugh...hmm

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 12:37:56

Okay, so say the Guardian is left of centre. It supported the Libdems five years ago, not Labour.
That does not negate what whitewave was saying.

POGS Sun 03-May-15 13:26:01

Am I wrong in looking at the BBC and find connections to Labour and the Guardian are rather, how shall I say it, prominent.

Ana Sun 03-May-15 13:30:02

No, you are not wrong POGS, but for some reason it is always hotly denied by GN left-wingers. I suppose they like to cling to the notion that the BBC is impartial...

whitewave Sun 03-May-15 13:30:27

I am note what you mean pogs ?

POGS Sun 03-May-15 13:35:56

White wave

Say again?

whitewave Sun 03-May-15 13:43:22

Sorry that should have been not - no what I meant was I am not sure what you mean by "connections"

ana I am not saying that the BBC is impartial I am saying it leans to the right

Ana Sun 03-May-15 13:52:49

I disagree with you, whitewave, but neither of us is going to change our opinion!

Ana Sun 03-May-15 13:54:28

(bad grammar there, but I'm sure you know what I mean)

whitewave Sun 03-May-15 13:57:56

I guessed as much ana grin

In my bones though I have a feeling that DC will get there on Thursday even though I seem so upbeat.

nigglynellie Sun 03-May-15 14:05:11

I HOPE so!!!

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 16:01:45

Don't give in yet whitewave.
Have you seen what Miliband has said on tuition fees? Should get a few more of the youth vote. I'd rather owe £9,000 less after university if I was in that situation.

Eloethan Sun 03-May-15 16:02:31

It is not a matter of opinion but a matter of fact - as illustrated by whitewave - that the newsprint media is predominantly centre-right/right wing. The BBC is commonly portrayed as a hotbed of left wing agitators and whilst there may be some left wingers there are also prominent BBC presenters/commentators with right wing sympathies or connections (e.g. Nick Robinson, Jeremy Paxman, Jeremy Clarkson).

It could be argued that the BBC, along with other television channels, panders to the establishment through, for instance, its extensive and often trivial coverage of the royal family - coverage which would, if applied to figureheads in other countries, be described as "propaganda". By contrast, the recent ruling re Prince Charles's "black spider" letters received very little coverage and one wonders whether, when his communications are available for disclosure, how much coverage will be given by the media to them.

At the Levenson inquiry those employed by Rupert Murdoch gave assurances that he never placed pressure on editors to take a particular political stance. However, a recent article in The I reported that, during a visit to London at the end of February when he met with senior Tories, Murdoch berated journalists on his tabloid papers for not doing enough to stop Labour winning the general election. He is reported to have instructed them to be much more aggressive in their attacks on Labour and more positive about Conservative achievements in the run-up to polling day.

The I also reported:

"It is understood that Mr Murdoch reminded executives that Labour would try to break up News UK, which owns The Sun, The Times and The Sunday Times. The [Labour] party has suggested that no owner should be allowed to control more than 34 per cent of the UK media, a cap which would force News UK to sell one of the titles."

and

"Two days after Mr Murdoch’s visit the paper devoted a two-page spread to the election – with the left-hand page containing a 10-point “pledge” to voters written by David Cameron. The right-hand side of the spread was an attack on Ed Balls under the headline: “I ruined your pensions, I sold off our gold, I helped wreck [the] economy, Now I’m going to put up your taxes.”

When Labour got into power after many years of Conservative rule, there was speculation as to how they achieved it. One would hope that it was the parlous state of health and education that induced this desire for "a change". However, it appears that it was only after Blair cosied up to Murdoch and re-branded the Labour Party as "New Labour", with Mandelson reinforcing New Labour's image as being “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” (and as happy as the Conservative Party to agree to "light touch" banking (and media) regulation) that The Sun, on Murdoch's instructions, finally supported Blair. By contrast, in the 1992 election, when the Sun ran a vicious campaign against Labour's Kinnock, on the Conservatives victory the Sun triumpantly headlined "It's the Sun what won it".

All the evidence shows that it has been, and always will be, an uphill struggle for any party calling for social justice to receive fair coverage from the media. Even parties whose original commitment is to reducing inequality have to be mindful of the immense power of the predominantly right wing media and water down their proposals to avoid complete obliteration.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 16:09:30

As said elsewhere, the owner of the DM is a non-dom, even though he is a Lord, so it's obvious who the Mail Group will not support. The same goes for the Telegraph.

According to the Drilldown that you have given links to, the Conservatives are on 33.3% and Labour on 33.7%. Conservatives will get 273 seats, and Labour 269.
So do not despair yet, whitewave.

Eloethan Sun 03-May-15 16:14:34

In conclusion - Vote Green, Vote Labour, Vote Plaid Cymru, Vote SNP - even (at a pinch) vote Lib Dem - whoever you have to - to prevent this marauding bunch of over-privileged, out-of-touch and totally ruthless wolves in sheep's clothing - otherwise known as the Conservative Party - from winning this election.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 16:14:57

www.google.com/url?q=http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade%2Bdailymail&sa=U&ei=MjtGVcr9CMGa7gabkoDwBA&ved=0CA4QFjADOAo&client=internal-uds-cse&usg=AFQjCNGeFsCXa6AtDpeWXgNfFa9elxK6wg

Lord Rothermere, and how the Sun protected him.

whitewave Sun 03-May-15 16:15:42

Cor! eloathan go granny go!!! I can also add Andrew Neil - ex Times editor to that list as well as Robert Peston.

You are so right though and it has always concerned me as to how difficult it is for a party trying to obtain social justice to get into power.

dj I think it is fear that is making me so worried!

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 16:16:05

www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/mar/10/the-day-lord-rothermeres-will-turned-up-on-the-sun-editors-desk

Better link.

durhamjen Sun 03-May-15 16:17:18

Brilliant, Eloethan! You need to be on the stumps.

Iam64 Sun 03-May-15 16:26:38

Yes you do Eloethan - but I recall suggesting this previously. I do wish you'd go for it smile