How will you vote in the EU referendum? (Thread 2)

To be honest jalima I felt it would be an enormous risk before the IMF statement. This simply confirms what I think. I like you am glad we are outside the euro, but my biggest worry is for our children's future. Life is not easy for them but an economy made unstable by a leave vote is the last thing we need for them at the moment.

This the link to the article about the EU judges interfering again!

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/660202/Europe-ruling-means-UK-is-facing-bill-of-BILLIONS-from-giant-firms-as-referendum-looms

Lord Lawson said that the IMF message was just a matter of opinion.
So is every statement made by any group, either economic or otherwise.
All your reasons for staying or leaving will just be matters of opinion, no matter how much you read about it.

Laine, I've just looked at the ECJ website and there are no documents over the last five years mentioning HMRC.
Can you direct me to the cases?

If it is true, we need to ensure we stay in the EU to make sure we do not join TTIP, as we will not just be paying back overpaid tax but for companies expected profits as well.

Somebody has suggested that we put the EU leaflet in an envelope and send it to Dodgy Dave in Downing Street.
It wasn't Dennis Skinner.

Or we could send it to the tax bodger in Islington? he isn't that keen on the EU.

I think you could describe him as healthily sceptic, but supportive of the remain argument.

With regard to the IMF statement made by their chief economist.

We already know that the worlds economy is extremely fragile, including of course that of the U.K. The IMF has indicated that Brexit would "do severe regional and global damage by disrupting established trading relationships" that makes sense to me, especially as the UK economy has been "hit by the mere risk of leaving the EU" The IMF went on to say that " negotiations on post-exit arrangements would likely be protracted, resulting in an extended period of heightened uncertainty that will weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing market volatility"
The CBI said Brexit would mean that the UK would struggle to maintain and build on the £377bn worth of investment from the EU.

I am not willing to risk our children's future.

Report from the Open Europe think tank suggests what we have already worked out thatBrexit will make little or no difference to net immigration.

Immigration is the least of my concerns, and I suspect that's true of the majority of Euro-sceptics.

Good then you can ignore the report, as no doubt you have.

Perhaps you ought to read more, Ana.
One of the cofounders of Grasstoots out says that his generation has seen their wages depressed by EU mass migration.
The latest yougov poll I've seen gives immigration as one of the greatest concerns, particularly among the older generation.

This is not to do with immigrants, but to do with exports to Europe. It was asked in a debate yesterday in parliament.

"There are more cars manufactured in one city in the north of England in one month than that great car-producing country Italy makes in a year, and the vast majority of those cars are exported to Europe—and that is just one city in one region. We see that being replicated right across the country. Early assessment suggests that any post-Brexit deal would place a tariff of up to 10% on every single car manufactured in the UK and sent to Europe, and that, over time, that would damage both manufacturing and jobs in the UK. Will the Minister confirm the possibility of a tariff of at least 10% being placed on every car manufactured in the UK?"

The answer was yes, there would be a 10% tariff.

Grasstoots? That's a good name. Should be Grassroots.
Fortunately it's going to be Vote Leave from now on - or unfortunately, as it's Johnson and Gove leading the group.

I don't need any advice from you, durhhamjen. I read plenty - just not all from the same sources as you get your information from.

theconversation.com/brexit-campaign-is-doomed-if-bookmakers-are-right-again-57514

theconversation.com/what-17th-century-politics-can-teach-us-about-the-brexit-debate-56334

An interesting look at the politics of our relationship with the law from the 17th century.

For everyone except Ana.

I wonder why expats would want to leave a house and a home in another country. Brits have always lived in France. I think those living in Germany will be getting their language skills sharpened prior to becoming German citizens and having 2 passports. That could be because a large % of Brits here are under 40 and just getting settlled, with their German wives and husbands.
Just reading the posts about the NHS on GN makes me feel relieved I don't live in the UK anymore.
Lets hope that common sense keeps the UK in the EU.

Reading through these posts it's clear why politics and religion should never be discussed at the dinner table!

I'm still trying to find impartial information but the truth is, nobody knows how we would be affected if we leave.

A poll in Vote Leave says that immigration is their best bet for persuading people to leave.

Hannah, I find the most impartial information is on www.fullfact.org

If you look on the Europe page there are lots of debates on there.

Fullfact is an independent organisation.
"Full Fact is a registered charity. We do not receive government funding, and rely on donations from individuals, charitable trusts, and corporate supporters.

We also earn money from running statistical masterclasses, and from our trading company, Full Fact Services. Click here to find out more about what we can offer your company.

All donations greater than £5,000 are listed on our website, and no single source represents more than 15% of our income."
This is from their site.

The alternative is to go on the OU site recommended by whitewave, I think.

Scary 10% on exported cars Durhamjen - so Exit would see the eventual demise of car manufacturing in the UK as international companies relocate manufacture to the EU.

A senior executive from Nissan came to my son's school to talk to the A level Economics class about the company, particularly logistics. Somebody asked about the effect of leaving Europe. The Nissan guy wasn't going to give a group of A level students a straight answer, but apparently he definitely hinted that it would make logistics more difficult.

Currently the European business is totally integrated. If a customer orders a car, it's more or less made to order, which avoids having to stockpile completed cars. If one plant is working to capacity, production can be switched within a day from Sunderland to Spain and vice versa. This flexibility, without having to bother about cross border tariffs, is a huge factor in Nissan's success. Most of the cars are exported to mainland Europe.

Nissan has 7,000 employees in its Sunderland factory and over 25,000 in its UK supply chain. Those jobs are at risk if Nissan decided to move to another location.

Ford, Vauxhall and Jaguar Landrover could very well decide to relocate production. UK car manufacturing currently has an annual turnover of over £50 billion, generating about £26 billion exports. All the main auto companies are foreign-owned. Leaving the EU could very well be a disaster for the industry and the people employed in the factories and supply chains.

Pharmaceutical and hi-tech companies (also mainly foreign-owned) could also decide to relocate to mainland Europe. They already employ many researchers from EU countries and attract some of the best technical and scientific minds to the UK. Microsft, which has its European Research HQ in Cambridge, has already stated that the UK's belonging to the EU was a factor in its decision to set up its HQ in the city. From an American perspective, the UK is in the unique situation of being English-speaking and in the EU.

Astra Zeneca has its own airline flying employees between Cambridge Airport and Sweden. The workers are effectively daily commuters, but any barriers, such as work visas and delays at passport control, could mean that it relocates.

Unless BREXITers actually come up with an alternative strategy, my feeling is that the UK would be foolish to throw away the advantage which the EU gives us.

*Microsoft (typo)

And then there is Ireland that is part of the EU and gives significant tax breaks to entice foreign businesses.

The Republic of Ireland will obviously stay with the EU but it will be interesting to see how Northern Ireland will vote. Indeed, I will be looking to see how the different parts of the UK vote. I am predicting that Northern Ireland and Scotland will vote to stay in. I don't know enough about Welsh politics but would assume a likelihood they would too. What about the North of England as opposed to the South and the South West? It will be an interesting, and historical, night.
On Newsnight earlier this week they were speculating whether the border between North and South Ireland would be resurrected.