EU - I'm in a quandary

www.facebook.com/wemoveeurope/photos?ref=page_internal

It was actually a German who said that granjura.

Whitewave
Most of these exports are services In the case of my home town, this is because the industrial base that thrived in the town was transferred to Eastern Europe because production was cheaper there ergo higher profits, no problem the skilled men who worked there were absorbed into unskilled warehousing jobs, until the Eastern Europeans came and undercut them for these jobs, It's all about profit! We have a problem because the English language is the international language of choice and is globally taught as a second language, this allows many nationalities to work here, but for Brits it is a different natter, how can they become fluent in Polish or Latvian to utilise their skills in these countries we do not teach 48 languages in school so our workforce are immediately disadvantaged with regard to the free movement ideal.

Are you sure? Can't see any evidence around here, that's for sure. Ever queued in a French ski resort? (if queuing is what you are talking about). For the British sense of humour- I have to agree. It took me a little while to 'get it' - but it is indeed unique, and I miss it terribly. Thanks goodness we have BBC and other British Channels here- as French, Swiss and Italian TV and humour are just dire and cringe-making.

France has - that is a start!

Most of those exports are services. The ECB is breaking its neck to find an excuse to take them from us. We would have a severe trade deficit with the EU if that happened.

What would Europe be without the British sense of humour?
Sad.

Definitely must vote Remain then

Although, from what I have seen when visiting Europe, much of the rest of Europe has just not learned to queue as the British do

Correction: having to pay a high price

As a country 44% of UK exports go to the EU But reports suggest that that percentage is dropping

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

Norway and Switzerland are often quoted as having a high price to trade with the EU - open borders and paying an amount more or less equivalent to EU membership.
But what about other countries who wish to trade with the EU - the same rules presumably do not apply.

United States
China
Japan
South Korea
etc
The EU benefits from being one of the most open economies in the world and remains committed to free trade.
The average applied tariff for goods imported into the EU is very low. More than 70% of imports enter the EU at zero or reduced tariffs.
The EU’s services markets are highly open and we have arguably the most open investment regime in the world.
(from the horse's mouth)

Do these countries have to agree to stringent rules in order to trade with the EU as Norway and Switzerland do?
I think not.

jalima don't forget that the EUs economy is now growing, so the unemployment figures will certainly begin to fall. This will of course have two effects. Reduce unemployment as I have said, and divert people movement towards a growing market - that's exactly how it is supposed to work.

If we Brexit our economy of course will contract and you may see the added benefit of the free movement who are now immigrants flowing from the UK to the EU growing economy.

graniteandsunlight.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/undecided-voters-and-people-not-planning-on-voting-at-all-please-please-read-this-first/

they are now suffering I.e. The German issues with the Greek bailouts

Joelsnan, yes that is one issue that has concerned me greatly, and the fact that - well the apparent fact that - Goldman Sachs, George Soros etc made huge amounts of money out of the situation with Greece and the euro. This sickens me, along with the fact that so many (allegedly) tax-avoiding celebrities are so much in favour of the EU. Are they urging Remain to protect their own interests or for the good of the UK?

I have just listened to Professor Michael Dougan, and, yes, I do take his points, but he did not touch on a lot of the issues which many of us are thinking about.
He said that the UK, France and Germany are referred to as 'The Big Three'. Do I want my country to be one of the dominant countries which may have brought misery to other EU countries such as Greece with its high unemployment rate 25%? Spain - 23% unemployment?

Can we bring about change from within? Prof Dougan seems to think so, but it does not seem to be a change for the better for some countries.

I also read two pro-Brexit articles today.

So am still hovering 52%/48%! And I think there are very many people who feel the same, and this referendum result will depend on a snap decision by those people on the day.

I've just read this.

What would Europe be without the British sense of humour?
Sad.

ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/

Nearly 100 questions answered by UK in a Changing Europe.
If anyone still doesn't know after reading all those, there's no hope for you.

Jalima I mentioned Turkey because it was relevant at the time to the debate on TV (some of us were exchanging comments). It was when Sadiq Khan was showing Boris the Leave campaign leaflet highlighting Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Gisela Stuart was saying David Cameron was refusing to say if he would use his veto to stop Turkey joining the EU. My comment was tied to that part of the programme (the discussion moved to a dedicated thread about the debate).

I know think you are voting for the futures of your children and grandchildren(as many do on here), but I honestly believe the economy will be adversely affected for decades after the split (I am far from being alone on thinking this). Reviewing and revising 40 years of EU membership will take years. Maybe we will have a stable economy in 25 or 30 years. But we will see. Nobody really knows what will happen.

Exactly, whitewave. I've just put this on another thread, but it should be on here as well. From Avaaz.

secure.avaaz.org/en/lets_win_the_vote_for_love/?ckHcnjb

Why does Wren-Lewis leave things so late? Lets hope it's not too late for those still undecided.

dj the blog from Professor Simon Wren-Lewis. His argument is a sophisticated version of my mothers sentiment about decency and truth and compassion. She remembers the rivers of blood speech and how it was closed down. I think he is spot on in his analysis.

The leave's campaign must not be allowed to stand in areas that identify "others" and in the shame that was that poster. Whatever the result we as a whole nation must rise above the shame that was the nationalistic message from leave and understand what it leads to if left unchecked.

Jalima
The older segment of society who are voting for out are voting not for their generation, but for the generations to come. Why wait for the whole thing to implode which it will, we can never be the USE, our histories, cultures and language prevent this. By getting out now we can forge good relationships within the international marketplace before this implosion and safeguard the futures if our children, grandchildren and onwards. Those understanding the previous world wars know how fickle countries are and will always revert to their own protectionist status. The only way the EU will appease some of these nations us to throw money at them to keep them compliant, that's okay whilst the nationals in the countries don't start to suffer, but they are now suffering I.e. The German issues with the Greek bailouts. If the UK takes its funding out there will be less to dole out and yes, I suppose a Brexit could be destabilising, but does this sort of blackmail ever work? I've seen it in the Middle East where governments keep the locals compliant by throwing money at them, creating a more more more society with the demands getting greater and that struggles to receive anything in return.

Joelsnan, about the Express.

mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/power-without-accountability-in-our.html

I really do not believe them on other countries wanting to leave. The Danish one said 42%, going up from 37%. It was called a massive leap. 42% is still a minority view.

mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/why-defeating-brexit-is-so-important.html

This is from Simon Wren-Lewis, professor of economic policy at Oxford.

I think it would be an an unmitigated tragedy if the oldest segment of society voted heavily to leave without a thought about what their grandchildren want
following on from my previous post (should have read them all first!) those are exactly my sentiments.

Anyone can look online at the accession process and Turkey has barely started. It won't happen in our lifetime.
Wilma but I am voting for my DC and my DGC and their generations, not myself.

No quotation marks, I notice.

We know that we are currently members of the European Union and that it is the world’s biggest single market, bigger even than the USA. We also know that because we are inside the Single Market we have tariff free trade with 27 other countries with a combined population of over 500 million people. That is big news for the region and the business perhaps most argued over in the referendum, Nissan, exports 80% of the cars made in Sunderland.

The North East is still a manufacturing region and we are the only region to export more than we import. As a country 44% of UK exports go to the EU but less than 8% of EU exports come to the UK meaning that we over whelming benefit from our EU membership. This means that 160,000 jobs in the North East are reliant on the trade with the European Union.

We do not know what our relationship with the EU will be if we leave and whether we will have access to the single market. Economists have produced forecasts of the impact but they are of course just that, forecasts and not certainty. That is where we have to make up our own minds based on the arguments put forward and that’s what Martin Lewis from Money Saving Expert has done. In a very balanced view he has said that ‘A vote for Brexit is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain.’

We know that immigration has been a big issue in this referendum. We know that as members of the EU there is not only freedom to trade but freedom for people to live in other EU countries. We also know that this is a two way street because there are British people living elsewhere in the EU, with hundreds of thousands living in Spain alone. We also know that we do not have open borders and everyone who has been on a foreign holiday will know that they have to show your passport when you come home.

We do not actually know what impact leaving the EU would have on immigration. More people come to the UK from outside the EU than inside and the number of people coming here has gone up not down. That is because we have a relatively strong economy and we know that people predominantly come here to work. Immigration is an issue which gets people very angry but is often a debate had without the facts. We know that in the North East only 1.6% of the population is foreign born. We also know from academic studies that immigrants pay more into the system in taxes than they take out in services.

We know that a big part of the campaign has focused on the money we pay to the EU in terms of our membership fee. It has become absolutely clear that the amount the leave campaign say we pay each week is not true and the UK Statistics Authority has told them that the claim is misleading. However, it is true that we do pay money to be in the EU. As the poorest English region we actually get our money back in its entirety through regional development funds that have played a part in almost every major regeneration project in the region over the past few decades. We do not know if we left how much of this money, if any, would come to the region from the Government in Westminster.

It is true that as a country we pay more to the EU than we get back but that fee is in return for access to the single market. Estimates reckon that for every £1 we pay into the EU we get £10 back, not in cash, but in terms of the economic growth, through increased jobs and growth that the single market creates. We know that Norway pays into the EU budget about as much as the UK does in order to get access to the Single Market so we do not know how much we would still end up paying if we left.

There are a whole range of issues that have been in the background of the referendum that haven’t really had much attention but which are in themselves important. When we think of the EU we look east and think of France and Germany but perhaps forget to look west to our closest European neighbour, Ireland. We know that as members of the European Union the link between the UK, with Northern Ireland in particular and the Republic of Ireland are very close and again, we do not know what might happen if we leave.

The fact that we don’t know what will happen if we leave has become one of the main features of the campaign. All we know for certain is what it is like to be a member of the European Union because we currently are. What people have to decide is whether they want to take that risk of voting for an option which could damage our economy and harm our exports industry, or if they want to vote for an option which has bolstered our economy and fostered peace across Europe. It’s up to you, so make sure you vote tomorrow for the good of our country.

From my MEPs - except the Ukip one, of course.

Durhamjen
If that's the case why then are other countries calling for referenda?

www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums

I wouldn't trust the Express on weather predictions, but their sources in these instances seem value.