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Brexit watch

(1001 Posts)
whitewave Fri 24-Jun-16 18:54:04

I think it will be interesting to track what the result of the vote brings us. Good or bad.

Friday 24 th June

Result out.

France wants to renegotiate the Le Touquet agreement

£ has the biggest drop since 1985

Mark Carney moved to try to steady the markets

Scottish first minister suggested that they are highly likely to go for a second referendum

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 15:21:11

When you listen to the news, and a reporter states that all retailers have reported their worst June for 10 years, that is presenting it as a fact.

If we weren't in the retail business daphnedill, I probably wouldn't have questioned it, but we are and so I have.

Day6 Fri 08-Jul-16 15:17:40

Smileless2012 _ "TBH I don't think that type of scare mongering reporting is doing us any good at all. It's still very early days and it's as if some of the stayers are determined to talk us into a catastrophic recession."

Such a good point Smileless2012. I think that many Remainers wanted the world to crash and burn after the referendum.

I am surprised most Guardian journalists didn't throw themselves off cliffs, like lemmings, such was their angst and sour grapes reporting. Much of it was hateful and ageist, and bashed the old, the less educated, the unemployed and to it's shame, the working classes.

All of a sudden it seemed to be the paper championing the bright, educated, the privileged, capitalists, the well off and those worried about their supply of French wines and cheeses.

The doom and gloom forecasting is easing up, thankfully. The pound rallied after an initial wobble. It's early days, I know, but internal political wrangling, Boris Johnson not being up to the job, the Corbyn back-stabbing by Blairites, Gove back-stabbing everyone, the Tory leadership debate plus the horrifying findings of the Chilcott Report seem to have captured our imagination more than anything as we carry on, almost free of EU shackles.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 15:16:00

Obviously not! Who claims it is?

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 15:09:40

Yes, but it's not a fact that all retailers have had their worst June for 10 years is it.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 15:05:07

They haven't had a downturn in business - yet! They're paying more for imports and will have to make a decision about pricing, which will affect business.

This is how the information is gathered:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36740602

It's not scare-mongering, but a fact that the exchange rate will affect the price of imports.

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 14:50:25

No they're not the ones scare mongering they're reacting to a downturn in their business, it's the media doing the scare mongering.

I very much doubt it's the case but even if we were the only retail business who hasn't had the worst June for a decade, that's enough for the media to be incorrect when stating all retailers.

Where do they get this info from? No one asked us.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 14:49:34

There is absolutely no guarantee that any of the £350,000 will go to unis. They'll have to join the queue with the NHS and everybody else.

Cardiff, De Montfort, Keele, Leeds, Liverpool, and Manchester universities have all had their credit rating downgraded as a direct result of BREXIT. Cambridge estimates it will lose £100 million and Oxford £70 million from direct EU research funding. They are also concerned that about 25% of research students are currently from EU countries and they could lose them.

Until negotiations start, there is no guarantee of anything.

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 14:45:54

Your first five points are Mr. S, to a tea obieone which bless him, is why he voted to stay. He didn't make his final decision until confronted with the ballot paper. He kept telling me his head said stay and his heart said go. It was the other way around for me; he went with his head and I went with my heart.

We do have to invest in the future of Britain, and I would add one word obieone "If we are to make Britain great"*again*. We have a lot to offer and we should stop talking this country down.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 14:41:58

The people aren't the kind of people to panic, They built the business up from scratch and it now has a multi-million pound turnover. A ten percent drop in sterling means they're paying a lot more for their products. They'll be OK, because they're happy to move abroad, but sixty jobs in the UK could go. It's not scare-mongering. It's being smart and ahead of the game

obieone Fri 08-Jul-16 14:33:46

I think Welshwife, but dont quote me, is that money will go to unis, apprenticeships etc.

If we are to make Britain great and stand on it's own two feet, that is the sort of thing that is going to have to happen.

obieone Fri 08-Jul-16 14:31:09

Some of the remainers I know in real life are
natural worriers
naturally cautious
naturally dont like change
naturally have trouble seeing into the future
naturally have trouble accepting change

and a bit of, their lives were ok thank you very much, so why change anything?

Welshwife Fri 08-Jul-16 14:30:22

DGS this morning told me that his PhD is actually funded by the EU - as is much of the Research done at the Uni he is working with. He has just one year to go but there is already a lot of worry about the next cohort of students. The research is to help the production of industry. Some of his friends fo similar work. They are young and all did postal votes as they were going to Glastonbury.
They are all furious about the result and wonder what will become of them and their skills as they see opportunities evaporating already. All I can see is another member of the family moving far away to realise his potential.

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 14:17:44

Difficult times ahead for many I should think daphnedill it does highlight though the amount of mis information we get. I was surprised to hear that all retailers were reporting their worst June for 10 years when it isn't the case for us.

TBH I don't think that type of scare mongering reporting is doing us any good at all. It's still very early days and it's as if some of the stayers are determined to talk us into a catastrophic recession.

If they're not careful they could end up with a self fulfilling prophecy.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 14:09:26

@smileless

I'm only reporting what they told me. The hubby is an ex-banker and I know they've made some contingency plans, but he told me that the exchange rate has already begun to have an effect on their profit. The business is entirely online and they already trade in France and Germany, so that business won't be affected. One option would be to expand the EU business.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 14:03:28

@Lucklegs

I read somewhere that the majority of people who voted Leave don't work - either retired, unemployed or stay at home parents. I don't know whether that's true, but it sounds believable.

I can't wait for this army of courageous non-workers to lead us out of the mess we're in! The mind boggles. hmm

Sorry! I don't believe it. It will be monetary policy which will lead us. Unfortunately, that will probably mean trampling on a few of the 'miserable'.

POGS Fri 08-Jul-16 13:43:46

Then you don't understand my point Gracesgran.

An opposition may try to 'overthrow' a government but what they are doing is denying the general electorate who democratically voted against 'them' the right to choose.

That is tantamount a Coo, a Dictatorship. Most certainly narcissistic and it is gutter politics.

Why is it some people cannot accept that my vote is as worth while as theirs? A democratic vote takes place, the percentages are counted, the victor governs.

If we go along the lines some would have us the government would be kicked out every other week and possibly anarchy would ensue. The latter I fear would be a trophy for some to aim for.

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 13:42:41

That's interesting daphnedill as we too sell furniture, accessories and blinds. Ours is a small family business with far fewer staff, only 8.

We buy a lot from Germany and haven't noticed any change so far. They're still as fastidious in their attention to detail and remain helpful and courteous.

Good post Luckylegs

Luckylegs9 Fri 08-Jul-16 13:36:58

172 MPs voted no confidence in Corbyn, so hardly think it appropriate to knock David Cameron, he resigned, which he had no choice as he had campIgned to stay in the EU.it was the only honourable thing to do So all parties need to heal and move on. Of course you need a strong opposition for democracy to flourish, so this way perhaps we will get 2 new leaders that will take us forward..One thing puzzles me, why do you assume that the Brexiters are all old people hankering after the past. It takes more courage and foresight to face the problems of leaving the EU, how much easier to stay with what you know and why didn't the younger voters get off their bottoms and vote or are you talking about under 18 year olds. The working classes that voted out were unhappy as they were not listened to, that would not have changed it was a matter of enforcing our own laws that people wanted, not Brussels. What on earth has Scientology got to do with anything?

Gracesgran Fri 08-Jul-16 12:50:13

Not completely true POGS. The opposition party or parties will try and overthrow the government if there are things they can gather enough support for. Governments are not, as we have seen with this government, always able to carry what they want to. We have also had governments with a very small majorities fall in the past and have to go to an election. The Government comprises the governing party and the opposition not just one of them.

What we have never had is a government that has been elected on one manifesto then comprehensively changed it from the position the majority of that party and the leader of that party supported to one that is the completed opposite.

They are turning what they were elected on on it's head without an election to give these decisions credence.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 12:46:03

@smileless

I would imagine it depends what you sell.

The parents of one of my students run a furniture and home accessories/design business and employ sixty people. They import most of their furniture from Italy. They hold very little stock in this country, so have already been hit by the exchange rate. They are very concerned about the future impact of customs 'red tape.

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 12:41:00

I AM one of the 'miserable', as my income is in the bottom 10% of all households, but even I can see that leaving is not going to make my life better and I could end up worse financially.

My children's lives will be affected in practice and almost immediately, as my son isn't guaranteed the opportunity to study abroad which my daughter had. Both of them had planned to work in Germany at some point in their lives.

What has ever stopped Leavers from becoming scientists, innovators or drivers of change? Moreover I would imagine scientists and innovators had some idea where they were going. This lot don't - apart from the fund managers, who've already made a fortune from market turbulence and won't have the EU breathing down their necks to pay taxes.

Smileless2012 Fri 08-Jul-16 12:40:18

It's difficult to know whose telling the truth and who isn't.

We have our own retail business, now in it's 4th generation and on the news this morning (or was it last nightblush) was a report that all retail businesses had had their worst June for a decade, well our sales were up on last Junehmm.

Joelsnan Fri 08-Jul-16 12:30:30

Daphnedill Maybe optimism prevails throughout their 'miserable' lives and they are prepared to look philosophically at their lot. The history if the UK shows that we as a people are innovators and drivers of change, whether this has come from the political elite, the scientists or the grassroots nobodies such as the Jarrow marchers.

www.lifehack.org/articles/communication/15-habits-highly-miserable-people.html
smile

daphnedill Fri 08-Jul-16 11:57:17

So how did they think their lives would be less shitty?

thatbags Fri 08-Jul-16 11:50:22

*The remainers’ warning not to gamble with economic security was failing to resonate. “Emotional fear wasn’t credible because they felt their lives were already shit,” as one senior campaign source told me.*

from: How Remain Failed, by Rafael Behr in the Guardian. Long read but interesting.

The quote above summed it up for me.

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