Lib Dems win bye election

Pity about the rather lack lustre Lib Dem leader though.

You can read some comments from a variety of people, including some who live in the constituency here:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/richmondpark/

I suspect the Labour supporters (not exactly sure who they mean - people who voted Labour last time?) voted tactically. Labour had no chance of winning, but LibDems did, especially after the Greens decided not to field a candidate. I'm not reading too much into why Conservative voters switched - maybe they were disillusioned with Goldsmith (it has a high level of ethnic diversity, so maybe they didn't like his London mayoral campaign), maybe they believe strongly in remaining in the EU, maybe they don't like the Conservative government, maybe they've forgiven the LibDems for the coalition and students' fees. It was probably a mix of everything. The LibDems threw everything they have into the election, including support from More United.

The LibDems are obviously jubilant after their collapse in 2015. It could be the beginning of a long climb back for them. They've already had a couple of local council wins. I expect they will be ready to go into action if any more by-elections turn up, in which they have a chance (not Sleaford :-().

The Conservatives won just under 30 seats from the LibDems in 2015. Many of them could be vulnerable if there were a by-election, although the LibDems would have a problem in the South West, which has traditionally been a LibDem stronghold but generally voted Leave. I guess it depends how the negotiations work out and whether the government puts 'bribes' in place to replace the loss of EU funding.

One way or the other, I suspect there's going to be a realignment of political parties over the next few years, but it's difficult to know where it's all going. The Richmond Park by-election won't make much difference in the long run.

Sarah Olney does seem like a charismatic figure.

But Jen, you said yesterday the labour candidate lost his deposit because he didn't like Corbyn,

Labour was asked by the centre labourites not to put up a candidate and leave the field to the Libdem. That's obviously why fewer votes for the Labour candidate were cast, because some of the members voted that way.
The Libdems said that they would ask for a second referendum when they knew what the terms were.
Labour voters who wanted to remain obviously voted for that.
I would have done, too, if I'd lived there.
It doesn't explain the Conservative leavers who voted for her. Maybe she's just a very nice person.

And so UKIP are targeting the areas where the vote to leave was strong

Even the candidate admits that it was her stance on the EU and Article 50 that led to her victory. None of the other parties have taken this stance. If Labour did so would it find itself taking Conservative seats where the voters wanted to Remain? UKIP would of course get the Leavers.

So Jen the members who selected him didn't vote for him because he didn't like Corbyn ? why did they not select the chap from Red Labour and Momentum, I am sure he adores Corbyn

Try this - he lost his deposit because labour voters don't like Corbyn

But, that still doesn't explain why Labour polled just 1,515 votes — fewer than the local party has members. Yes, you can discuss tactical voting from the labour electorate but from the local party??

Because Corbyn does not impose candidates. The CLP chose a candidate, not the PLP, which is what happened in Blair's day.
Try again, Annie.

If it's such a surprise I wish now I'd bet a tenner on it.

If the labour candidate didn't support Corbyn so this was the reason he lost his deposit it beggers the question, why was he selected and not the red labour and momentum chap? Try again Jen,

Probably many remainers in Richmond were concerned that their cleaners, nannies, gardeners, handymen, plumbers and general factotum would be sent home when they voted in the referendum.
Terribull's assessment is quite accurate.

The 3rd runway is going ahead (which Goldsmith may use extensively? despite his claim to be green), his Mayoral campaign impressed very few and I'm not surprised that Richmond went back to its natural Lib Dem inclinations.

I read about them on Facebook and two other sites. I don't know for sure whether it was true, which is why I wrote 'apparently'.

There can't have been many Tories who voted Leave, because it was a 70/30 split. Most of the people who voted Tory in 2015 must have voted Remain.

The Labour candidate did not support Corbyn anyway, which is probably why he lost his deposit.

Apparently a third of Tories who voted to leave voted Libdem this time. Perhaps they have realised they were conned by the leave group. Now they have more mis/information, they do not like what they see.

Not one person interviewed today mentioned labour members had been drumming up support for the Libs. Why did Corbyn bother to go there with his momentum groupies last week . Just an excuse to avoid admitting labour is heading for the rocks

Maybe they're short of news . It isn't really a shock, but a big majority was overturned. The Tories did field a candidate (ahem). I guess one reason it's significant is that there was a lot of tactical voting. It was the first time More United has supported a candidate and the first time the 'progressive alliance' has been put into practice. Apparently some Labour activists were out drumming up support for the LibDem. Labour itself polled fewer votes than there are members of the constituency party.

I just don't understand why the media is treating this as a shock result.

It is a natural Lib Dem or possibly Conservative area. The Tories did not field a candidate.

Those who liked Goldsmith and thought he was a good constitency MP presumably voted for him, many others reverted to voting Lib Dem and did not want an Independent.

Next week's byelection in Sleaford will be more interesting than the Richmond one. The Conservatives will almost certainly win, but second place will be interesting. Sleaford voted Leave by quite a big margin and Ukip was only just behind Labour in 2015.

She has little experience of politics (give her ten years.) If she is still around by then.

Well, when even Labour MPs who were remainers said that they will not do that, I wonder how long it will take before she changes her mind.

not sure if I feel that sorry for any of them; they have to have a certain self-belief to want to become a politician and an MP, perhaps some need to take a long hard look at themselves in relation to what ordinary people want or need in an MP.

Jalima, no way did I ever support Portillo , just I always feel sorry for the loser as they stand there on the night.

Bradshaws Air Travel? Na, boring . He could do Strictly though ?

The new MP has said that she will vote against triggering Article 50 when it comes before parliament and attributes much of her support to this. What would happen if MPs had to come out and say which way they would vote? How many more would be out of a job?

Im sure he won't be signing on at the job centre.