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The 4th Industrial Revolution

(114 Posts)
daphnedill Mon 06-Mar-17 11:18:55

A recent article by Bernard Marr in Forbes:

The 4th Industrial Revolution And A Jobless Future - A Good Thing?

It’s estimated that between 35 and 50 percent of jobs that exist today are at risk of being lost to automation.

Repetitive, blue collar type jobs might be first, but even professionals — including paralegals, diagnosticians, and customer service representatives — will be at risk.

This isn’t just science fiction, it’s happening now. Manufacturing are the first places we see robots and automation eliminating human jobs, but it’s hard to think of an industry that will be left unaffected as robots and AI become more affordable and widespread.

Rather than fight this advancement and wring our hands over the robots “stealing” our jobs, maybe it’s time to envision a jobless future.

Most people are in jobs they don’t particularly enjoy, with lots of mundane and repetitive tasks. Is it not our obligation to pass those jobs to machines?

From a business standpoint, any consultant would tell you that any task that can be systematized and automated should be. Many jobs are not jobs humans should waste their time doing.
The challenge is to rethink our economic model to ensure the people who will do something more interesting and enjoyable can afford to do so.

What would a jobless future look like?

All these technological advances that we are creating today — big data, artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things — represent a significant challenge to capitalism.
The more we automate and systematize, the more we see jobless growth and productivity. Taken to its logical extremes, we have a paradox of an exponentially growing number of products, manufactured more and more efficiently, but with rising unemployment and underemployment, falling real wages and stagnant living standards.

The 4th Industrial Revolution has started.

In other words, more products produced more cheaply and efficiently — but no one able to afford to buy them.
In fact, it’s already begun.

The rate of technological progress and worker productivity is on the rise, but wages are stagnating, factories are eliminating jobs, and researchers estimate that anywhere between 35 and 50 percent of jobs that exist now are in danger of being lost to automation.

But what if the prognosis weren’t all doom and gloom? What if all this automation were instead to provide so much luxury that we enter a post-work era, when humans are required to do very little labor and machines provide everything we need?

Fully Automated Luxury Communism describes an idea and ideology that in the (relatively near) future, machines could provide for all our basic needs. Humans would be required to do very little work on quality control and similar oversight, and have much of their time free to pursue other things. The result would be attainable luxury for everyone.
Robots, AI, machine learning, big data, etc. could make human labor redundant instead of creating even further inequalities. It could lead to a society where everyone lives in luxury and where machines produce everything while humans are free to pursue the creative explorations that robots and machines are incapable of: science, art, music, poetry, invention, and exploration.

How a jobless society must work

The trick, however, is subordinating the technology to global human needs rather than to profits.

Putting modern technology to work for the people is an excellent goal, and democratizing the advantages of our advances is already happening in some sectors. Bringing governments and nonprofit organizations onto the same technological footing as for-profit companies is a good step forward and could result in huge strides towards improving living conditions, decreasing crime, ending poverty and other problems.

I believe that if we can collectively turn our technology to the good of everyone, technology would not just be pruning away the jobs that are too mundane for humans to do, but also create new opportunities to replace the ones that were lost. Crucially: the jobs will be pruned regardless, but it is up to us to create the opportunities.

It’s the idea that the next Mozart, or Einstein, or Edison may be waiting — but because of inequalities like poor schooling, hunger, inadequate housing, etc., they may never reach their full potential.

If technology can provide an equal playing field for those children of the future, providing for all their needs, and that is done through the loss of the low-wage, monotonous, unfulfilling jobs we are clinging to today, then I say, destroy those jobs. Make way for the new generation and give them the tools they need to create incredible things.

Any comments?

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 23:20:41

I realise the argument has moved on but this is a very good article from the Independnt saying precisely why people with learning difficulties should NOT be paid less than others - not an enabling initiative at all, but nothing short of exploitation.
www.independent.co.uk/voices/rosa-monckton-disability-minimum-wage-charity-spectator-a7609231.html

If it is irrelevant, feel free to ignore but it does put a clear case for not undercutting wages.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 23:12:08

Well said, varian, particularly the second paragraph. Sharing resources fairly and putting people's well-being at the heart of decisions should be priorities.

When I was in the sixth form in the early 1970s, I remember being told that one of the problems we'd have in the future would be deciding what to do with our leisure time. hmm

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 23:07:30

That's exactly the point I was making Ankers. Darwin had independent financing, so didn't need to work for an employer or run a business. He was free to follow his own interests.

Lady Edwina Grosvenor is filthy rich and doesn't need to do paid work, so she's been free to do what she wants, which has been to help prisoners.

Bill Gates could, if he wanted, buy a fleet of super yachts and live a celeb lifestyle. He could even build a gold tower in New York!

These people have played useful roles, precisely because they've been freed from having to earn a living.

durhamjen Tue 07-Mar-17 22:33:54

Someone else off to laze around and leave us to it. Is she allowed to? After all, it's not proper work, is it?

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 19:43:02

Got it DJ - a bit slow these days, must be all that "lazing around".

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 19:16:22

^Ankers People such as Charles Darwin never 'worked' for an employer, but his 'work' has greatly influenced the lives of all of us

But he was financed! By his brother inlaw in the first instance. Or perhaps his family before that.
He couldnt live on fresh air alone.

I find some of the points here now, akin to cloud cuckoo land. So I will leave you all to it.

varian Tue 07-Mar-17 19:12:54

I believe that however many robots we might have, there will always be worthwhile things for human beings to do.

At times in history there might have been be difficulty transforming work into jobs but perhaps we are now getting to a point where it should not be about jobs but how we share our resources fairly and encourage everyone to lead a purposeful life.

There have always been rich people in every society, particularly rich women, who did not have to work but still found ways to spend their days, and some of the them did make meaningful and important contributions.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 19:05:15

I'll conspire happily if it gets reasoned repliessmile When shall we three meet again? I wonder how those poor rich people who don't 'work' manage?

Economy apparently comes via Latin from Greek oikonomia meaning 'household management' It would be nice to think that governments thought more about households.

Thanks for the information DD. I'm like you and learning seems so worth-while. I have now piggybacked on three degrees (no jokes) and current a masters. My children are kind enough to teach me as they learn themselves but I have to admit I wouldn't always have chosen their subjects grin

durhamjen Tue 07-Mar-17 18:57:46

That's a problem that the DWP has, seeing only paid work as worthwhile.
That is surely what the 4th industrial revolution will have to address, by seeing all work as useful, and worthwhile.

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 18:48:24

you could choose to 'work' at caring, learning or making or nothing

for your whole life ?
I have to admit this led me to believe that paid work was at issue. I was clearly not alone.
But now I either have to take issue with this, or just laugh
Different lazing around (my bold) after having worked for 40 years, and now in your 60s......

I hope those of us who are guilty of "lazing around" are feeling suitably chastised.
Childcare for DGCs, caring for elderly parents or poorly partners, U3A and other courses of study, volunteering, all of these dismissed at a stroke as "lazing around"

Get back to work you lazy lot!! gringrin

Nobody is denying that work is not usually satisfying, a part of self confidence, giving a sense of identity and of worth in the community and nobody is trying to deprive this with physical or mental learning difficulties of this experience.
But "the disabled" like everybody else are entitled to an opportunity for education, for self fulfilment , for a satisfying role in life and "job satisfaction". Not the deadbeat , mind numbing repetitive tasks in an industrial environment which thank goodness can be performed by machines.
They are not ersatz robots.

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 17:45:54

Lost me DJ.

durhamjen Tue 07-Mar-17 17:06:51

Pathetic fallacy, daphne.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 17:06:28

Yes, but when you made your comment to me, you yourself were only talking about paid work as well!!!!!!!!!!

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 16:59:09

When shall we three meet again?
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

When the hurlyburly's done,
When the battle's lost and won.

What are you going on about Ankers? confused

PS. Maw, GG and I seem to have been cast as the three witches!

Seriously..

I was trying to suggest that 'work' and the people who carry it out are more than 'factors of production', which is how an economist sees it.

MawBroon Tue 07-Mar-17 16:30:08

Clearly a conspiracy hmm

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 16:06:32

Maybe I was a bit harsh there, but seriously, whatever did I
say to lead you to that conclusion? Nothing.

Please read my words more carefully in future.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 15:56:50

Ah. But actually it is a diversion to aid GG. That is what some of you lot do.

Got it now!

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 15:55:34

Ankers You are talking about paid work, as though all the work people do for no pay doesn't matter.

Oh good grief. Not another poster who twists words. Or feigns the wrong assumption whilst not looking at the actual words properly.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:24:33

I would have chosen to learn for my whole life, but couldn't have afforded it. I can think of nothing about paid work which I miss, apart from the money, of course.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:22:28

Ankers People such as Charles Darwin never 'worked' for an employer, but his 'work' has greatly influenced the lives of all of us.

Some of the great nineteenth century philanthropists (such as the Rowntrees) inherited wealth. Although most of them were involved with their family businesses, their wealth gave them time to research and they greatly influenced social reform.

Millions of mothers and carers have never 'worked', but life wouldn't tick over without them.

There is more than enough work which could be done to improve society, but society isn't always willing to pay the people who do it.

daphnedill Tue 07-Mar-17 15:08:22

Will listen to it later, varian.I don't have 44minutes to spare at the moment.

GG 'Entryism' in political terms refers to people who try to infiltrate an organisation and take it over. That's what Trotsky did, which is why such people are often called 'Trots' (even though they're not really Trotskyists, but from a a number of different ideologies).

According to my DD and DS, both of whom have attended Momentum meetings, there are is a handful of entryists, who thrive on physical meetings (along with more traditional left-wingers) because they're bullies and try to intimidate the younger people, who are keen but politically naive. The bulk of younger people who joined Momentum don't have the time or will to sit through endless debates about organisational structure and ideology.

Ankers You are talking about paid work, as though all the work people do for no pay doesn't matter.

varian Tue 07-Mar-17 14:03:54

This episode of the Public Philosopher is a really interesting examination of this topic, well worth listening to if you have a spare 44 minutes or while you're multitasking (since you don't yet have your own robot)

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gxndc

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 13:59:42

^ you could choose to 'work' at caring, learning or making or nothing.^

for your whole life?

That is what was different with the scenario you presented about being retired and not having worked at all.

Different lazing around after having worked for 40 years, and now in your 60s, to being in your 20s and not working and with no prospect of work.

Now, granted, I expect we all know some who would like that.

And some could manage it probably, if they had to.

But for some, and I know many, I suspect it would give some of them at least mental health problems.

Which, as I was writing that, a lightbulb went off.
That is why I think, that someone I know has succumbed to bad mental health. No permanent work to go to.

GracesGranMK2 Tue 07-Mar-17 13:54:43

I'm not sure I could put forward much of a discussion Maizie as the very words "ingrained 'Puritan work ethic'" tell me we might agreesmile

DD 1. I didn't know! First bit of learning please. If the young are not the "entryists" who are? I am not well up on Momentum and wouldn't know how to follow what they are saying but am interested in all the debates of all those with political opinion. I can see the battle positions on this. My first thoughts that using the internet would be both more inclusive for some of the currently excluded and more exclusive for some of the currently included but going forward much more inclusive.

DD 2 I would agree with your thinking (including the maybe) re the way politics is moving and why. It is intensely difficult to awaken those who believe that the work they once did or expected to do should always be available and even more that it may be a good thing that some people may be paid whether they work or not.

Do you know that one theory about the Garden of Eden is that it was a land in the delta of a river and no one had to work to any extent in order to provide for themselves as it was so fertile. When the delta dried up the people thought they had been evicted from the G of E because they had to work at providing their food, etc. I have a feeling we are so brainwashed by the Puritan work ethic that Maizie mentioned that it will be difficult for some to accept that wealth being shared by all would mean that, with enough for basic needs, you could choose to 'work' at caring, learning or making or nothing.

Ankers Tue 07-Mar-17 13:29:54

Social media has been a major contributing factor to populism.

I have been wondering this. Doesnt democracy on the internet work the other way too?
Though I have to say, when seeing how some people run their lives, [because you "see" more of the person on the internet than perhaps you would do in real life] it can make you start to think more about your democratic choices and which box you might like to put the X in.

I dont think that politicans have cottoned on to this yet! Both about themselves and the supporters in their area, and for their party!