Catalonia

Back on the subject of Catalonia, it looks as if Rajoy is going to invoke Clause 155 tomorrow, and start imposing power from Central Government. He also appears to have found a way to have a referendum that is not a referendum by calling new general elections within Catalonia. If all the Parties standing for election have a clear cut policy on Independence, one way or another, then the results should give a much clearer view of the voters' preferences, especially if there is a big turnout.

That will won't be any time soon then will it, the brexit terms becoming clear... By the time May et al have got their sorry act together and the Scottish government had planned and conducted a referendum there would be virtually no time to start talking to the EU before April 2019. There is no agreed framework for a country leaving, but a bit of it wanting to stay in. Can you imagine how long it would take the EU to agree such a framework?
And yes Varian some of us still harbour a hope, but not a strong one, that we could yet withdraw from this craziness and admit that it cannot be done in the timescale without ruining the economy.

Jess said And Scotland is not doing anything about having another referendum - really!! The official position of the Scottish Government is that there will be a 2nd referendum on Independence 'as soon as the Brexit terms have become clear' - so certainly before the UK has finally exited.

Every ordinary member of the SNP, every Cllr, MP, MSP or MEP has this as their ultimate goal while 'getting on with the day job'. The Scottish Greens are similarly committed. Not to mention the 100s of thousands of people from other parties and none who are working towards Independence through the various strands of the YES movement. Latest opinion polls show support for Independence rising slowly but steadily - who can predict where it will stand in 18 months time?

Agreed, Varian. It won't be a problem if we don't leave.

If we leave, JessM

They'd have had to start the organising a while back I think. And Scotland is not doing anything about having another referendum to see if that is what Scottish people would want. They couldn't stay in the EU and not be independent could they. The legal frameworks don't exits. So not a chance I'd say. Think how much time it takes to get one little local court case through the legal hoops - months and months... There are only 18 months left till we leave.

It's never happened before, though.
Just as the UK are going to adopt all EU laws on the day we leave, surely they could organise that Scotland joins the EU on the day that the UK leaves.

The UK is still a member of the EU.

If Scotland were to start negotiations now to remain in the UK when the UK leaves they would inevitably need agreement by all states of the EU. Including the UK - which would still be a member. The EU don't agree this kind of thing on a majority vote alone (see below - universality is the rule and each individual national parliament has to agree as well as EU bodies) The Scottish Gov. would have to first get the agreement of the people of Scotland. I see no moves in that direction. I think we can assume that Scotland will be out, along with the rest of us, in spring 2019.
After the UK leaves Scotland could apply to join via the process below. But they'd have a bit of a problem. They'd first have to declare independence, so that they could apply as a country in their own right. This would be a long, slow process. And their admittance would be dependent on their track record as an economy. A track record that they would not have. We're talking a few decades here, minimum, before they would get a yes/no answer. Turkey have been tin the joining process for 30 years and they would not have Scotland's disadvantages.

If Catalonia leaves and wishes to retain membership, again the principle of universality would prevail. And that is where other countries would put their collective and sovereign feet right down. Spain, still an EU member, would, without a doubt block it, because they would not other regions of Spain doing likewise. And why would several others, with their own regional independence movements, do otherwise?
Where there is a will there is not always a way if you have powerful entities who can quite legally block your way and would certainly wish to do so. No amount of wishful thinking would make a scrap of difference.
It's the same with the UK leaving "deal" if we ever get one on the table. Each individual national parliament will have to agree to it.

This is the process for joining the EU in a (rather large) nutshell:
A country that wishes to join the EU addresses its application to the Council, which asks the Commission to submit an opinion. The European Parliament is notified of this application. If the Commission’s opinion is favourable, the European Council may decide — by unanimity — to grant the country candidate status. Following a recommendation by the Commission the Council decides — by unanimity — whether negotiations should be opened. The sum of EU legislation (the acquis communautaire) is divided into more than 30 policy chapters. Before actual negotiations start, the Commission delivers a ‘screening’ report for each chapter. On the basis of the Commission’s recommendation, the Council decides by unanimity whether or not to open each new negotiation chapter. Whenever progress is judged satisfactory, the Commission may recommend ‘provisionally closing’ a chapter. The Council again decides by unanimity. When negotiations on all the chapters are completed, the terms and conditions — including possible safeguard clauses and transitional arrangements — are incorporated into an accession treaty between the EU Member States and the candidate state. Only after Parliament’s consent and the Council’s unanimous approval can the accession treaty be signed. It is then submitted by all contracting states for ratification, in accordance with their constitutional requirements (i.e. ratification by parliament or referendum).

As I said Pogs there are a lot of ifs and buts .. I think the phrase that applies is Where there is a will there is a way.
If there are obvious advantages to both sides then a solution can usually be found. Even Spain's foreign minister has stated that retaining access to the North Sea fishing grounds is more important to Spain than becoming involved in internal disputes in other countries. I think (as this thread proves) that Spain believes (rightly or wrongly) that it is well able to deal with Catalonia by itself and resents any interference from the EU or other countries.

As to the 'talks with Nicola' aspect I think there is a big difference between entering politely into discussion with regard to future possibilities and going in with all guns blazing, when you really have no meaningful ammunition and making demands as to how and when you will leave the club when you are no more important than the 30+ remaining members. The EU holds all the cards - a less arrogant approach is essential if a reasonable leaving settlement is to be agreed, as the UK is dependent on the goodwill of the remaining EU partners.

PS - still waiting for any meaningful talks between Westminster and the 3 devolved parliaments within the UK.

Granny23

" Talks with EU chiefs and lawyers have suggested that if Scotland should vote to leave the UK before Brexit has been completed, then citizens of Scotland would remain in the EU as the successor state, while rump UK leaves. "

Pity the EU chiefs and lawyers refused to ' talk' to the UK government instead of refusing to 'talk' before Article 50 was invoked . Lucky Nicola.

How can ' EU chiefs' make that decision ?

If that is the case does that not prove the EU Parliament MEP's have no say and have to abide by the Commission

decisions, when it suits the Commission.

I don't think Catalonia will declare Independence as I think they will probably see how difficult it will be to do so simply by looking at the EU/UK rhetoric and negotiations. e.g how much money would they have to pay to stay in the Single Market / Customs Union.

The latter is of course a personal opinion and the Catalan government may declare Independency.

You state that the UK would block Catalonia's membership. How are they to do that when the UK is no longer a member?

Whether or not the UK is in or out of the EU is irrelevant to the question of Catalonia. Spain would block the admission of Catalonia to the EU.

As regards turnout for referendum, is it any wonder it was only 40% with the vilence against voters? Surely it would have been better for the Spanish government to let the referendum go ahead to see what the majority wanted - or is that why they didn't? Now they can claim the remaining 60% would have voted against, very handy..

You are living in the past Jess when the NO side in Indyref used this argument (that the only way to stay in the EU was as part of the UK) to bolster the NO vote. Given the result of the Brexit Referendum - when 62% of Scots voted to remain - now the only way to stay in the EU is to leave the UK.

You state that the UK would block Catalonia's membership. How are they to do that when the UK is no longer a member?

Talks with EU chiefs and lawyers have suggested that if Scotland should vote to leave the UK before Brexit has been completed, then citizens of Scotland would remain in the EU as the successor state, while rump UK leaves. This would be an attractive proposition for the finance and business community (whose wishes hold more sway than those of the general public) and also keep the oil fields (more than any other country in the EU) best fishing grounds, and burgeoning wind and wave power sector within the EU.

Lots of ifs and buts of course. but many reasons why the EU would welcome Scotland.

Was with a few people with nationalistic leanings the other day. I said that if they left the EU would not let them join. This had never occurred to them. One of the flaws in the notion that Scotland (or any other splinter state) could become independent and re-join is that all the other countries would have to agree to let them in. And any country that has it's now independence movements would. of course, block it, to prevent their own nationalists getting big ideas. So the UK would block the admissions of Catalonia just as Spain would block the admission of Scotland. And then there is Belgium that has a minority with a different language. And Italy that has Sardinia, France has Corsica etc etc. The folks I was talking to had never considered this aspect of the independence movement.

Rajoy has just given a speech that in my opinion has not given much hope for 'dialogue' but I could be wrong in my assumption.

Unsettling for the people of Catalonia and all other parts of Spain I'm sure.

Watching the speech by Carles Puigdemont earlier I thought he was declaring Independence when he said

" I assume the mandate of the people for Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic.”

He then went on to ask the Catalan parliament to suspend the act of independence for some weeks to allow for a period of negotiation with the Spanish government. I think he has ' put the ball ' in Mariano Rajoys court but there is at least a breathing space .

Rajoy hopefully will engage in talks and not do anything to provoke matters such as arrest Puigdemont for ' sedition '.

English, French, Spanish, and have a working knowledge of Schweizerdeutsch, Valenciano and Flemish.

Good for them. She has family in Catalan and she speaks Catalan and Spanish, German, French and English.
Before she came over here to teach Spanish in English schools she was a translator in Brussels, so she probably speaks other languages as well. I haven't asked her for a list.

What languages do you speak?

durhamjen* "She learnt Catalan as they lived just south of the border in Valencia. "

Jen I live in Valencia, and the Valencianos I know are most insistent that they speak Valenciano, not Catalán!

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans have turned out to demonstrate against the separatists. They have a right to remain Catalan and Spanish.

Although about 90% of those who voted in the illegal referendum supported the break up of Spain, most catalonians did not vote. Those who did vote for breaking away were less than 40% of the Catalan electorate, coincidentally about the same as the 37% of the UK electorate who voted to tear the UK out of the EU. These minorities should not be allowed to destroy a union.

Having said that, I agree that the Spanish government's over-reaction is likely to alienate far more Catalans. Their use of force was a disgrace.

Maisie do you mean "legitimate" or do you mean "understandable"? It's not really a matter of law is it. Where I live ( N Wales) it seems to be a romantic dream. It does not take a huge amount of thought (as opposed to dreaming) to figure out that in the case of Wales, independence would be a financial disaster on a huge scale. But the nationalists keep on circling the wagons, and coming up with other justifications for being a nationalist party when they know perfectly well that it's a dream.

I was talking to my Spanish daughter in law today, and she said that Spain only became Spain as far as the Spanish were concerned when Franco said so in 1939.
Before that the different states were called by their separatist names. She learnt Catalan as they lived just south of the border in Valencia. Then the language was banned as far as learning it in schools was concerned.
But lots of people still spoke Catalan even outside Catalonia.

I think the economic problem would be Spain's rather than Catalonia's. Catalonia is very rich.

A country's being 'entire' for some time doesn't make a component's desire for independence any less legitimate.

Indeed Europe used to be a mass of tiny city states, monarchies etc. Specially the middle bit. And lots and lots of dialects and lots of war. The world has changed. The fact that NI and the Republic are both in the EU has been a big help in bringing peace.
This splendid graphic is worth a couple of minutes -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2LgiMMGf6Q
Notable that Spain has been one of the more stable areas and Catalonia has not been separate for many centuries - the population are being wound up by populist nationalist politicians and are probably not fully aware of the implications for their prosperity if they found themselves out of the EU.

Maizie sorry for late reply - the article tells about the previous referendum and how the current Catalonian Govt manipulates the figures a tad. It is the region with the most independence (in Europe I think) anyway and the last time they had a full referendum they voted 60/40 against independence.
Of course there are two sides but this sheds a different light on things.