Brexit and small/medium businesses

Primrose, do you think building related small businesses will be better or worse off after Brexit? (and why - genuine question).

I think the fundamental problem is that you cannot just lump 'small business' together - it's exceptionally diverse. The only 'group' that stands out are housing - real estate and construction are nearly 50%.
9% of the UK's SMEs export and a further 15% are in the supply chains of other businesses that export. They will all have different needs post Brexit - an estate agent will have different concerns from a manufacturer.

Perhaps their relevant trade associations should be actively understanding what their members need and making representations for appropriate support?

I don't mean to sound unsympathetic - it's just lumping everyone together as a group is a futile exercise in my opinion.

The problem is Elegran that it is hard for anyone to plan when they don’t know what the government’s vision for post-Brexit Britain is. All we hear is talk of a “deep and special relationship” and Canada ++. The EU seems to have made it clear that the UK can have Canada or Norway but the regulatory framework does not allow anything in between, so Canada ++ is not possible. According to the Independent today, the transition period seems likely to be Norway. I don’t see how businesses can plan if they don’t know the basics with regard to SM / CU.
Having said that, I am sure that many big businesses have well-developed plans to move out of the UK in the event of a hard Brexit.

Rabbits and headlights seems to describe many reactions, and not just in government.

There is a great deal of condemnation of the actions and inactions of the present government, but running around like headless chickens blaming each other for letting the sky fall doesn't put a roof on the chicken run. Whether the chickens are scratching for worms in Farmer Jones' field or Mrs Smith's orchard, they will need shelter from the storms to come, and that means all the chickens, not just the ones with few feathers and pecked bums. The ones who are still trying hard to keep egg production going need a bit of support too. Is there a blueprint for the new coop where they can lay their eggs for Farmer Jones to collect and sell?
If there isn't, shouldn't the chickens spend some of their time considering just what kind of coop would be best and trying to get that built, and a bit less time bewailing the wanton destruction of the old one?

Maizie You "don't hold out much hope for this from a government who . . ." but I keep asking can we hope for anything more from any OTHER government? What are the plans of the opposition for small and medium businesses? Britain used to be called a nation of shopkeepers, but they seem to have become invisible.

Surely there was an impact assessment report regarding small businesses, along with the other impact assessment reports? Oh, hang on.....

I don’t think the strategy will come from DExEU btw.

I think rabbits and headlights just about sums up the Government Maizie. I don't doubt that there are people behind the scenes working away at a strategy, but I don't think we will see it yet.
Public opinion still needs to shift as the reality becomes clearer.

I read North's blog, too, Mamie (though not quite every day) and have linked to it from time to time. It is excellent and I could wish that more people would read it.

I also find it notable for the very civilised BTL comments from a mix of Leavers and Remainers.

There still needs to be much more government support and advice

I'm afraid I really don't hold out much hope for this from a government that hasn't even done any proper Impact Assessments. For a supposed 'party of business' they seem totally bemused by the whole affair when it comes to supporting 'business'.

The North blog is interesting because he is a leaver, with a long-term carefully crafted plan called Flexcit. He is clearly furious that it risks being sunk by the current foolhardy rush towards a Brexit devoid of thought or planning.
I don't agree with his long-term aims, but I do respect his knowledge.

Agreed, Mamie As A longterm plan for a gradual and well-supported move away from one system and toward another it could be feasible. As an overnight transformation it stinks.

Gillybob what measures do you feel would help you and the people on the forum you mention to face with a degree of confidence a UK post-Brexit? Can you think about it when you are not up the eyebrows in grandchildren or business paperwork? Most of the posts on GN are from people with experienc ein the public sector. The views of someone trying to maintain a private business and keep their employees in work would be invaluable.

I totally agree about the damage and misery Elegran. I am actually of the opinion that Brexit is impossible. It might be accomplished with a plan drawn up over ten years and implemented over the next twenty. I think it is beyond the competence of the current crop of politicians.

It is also clear to me from reading the blog every day for a year that the complexities for the multitude of sectors involved are way too much for the vast majority of people to get to grips with. That includes journalists, politicians and the public at large. This one from December gives links to the impact assessments from the blog.
www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86697

There still needs to be much more government support and advice. Damage has already been caused by the prospect of Brexit, and there will be more to come. It needs to be tackled from all directions.

If a small business goes under, all its employees lose their jobs and are added to the list of those receiving benefits. As well as the personal misery that will cause, there is also a financial cost to the country. Instead of that business being a contributor of tax for the government of the day to distribute to where it is needed, it has indirectly contributed to the amount being paid out instead.

Support for SME firms facing ruin is essential, and as important as financial incentives to encourage international companies to set up here.

The point is though Elegran that EEA / EFTA takes away many of the problems as SM / CU remain in place. Have you looked at the Richard North EU Referendum blog? I am sure I would dislike him if I met him, but he has a huge and very impressive understanding of the complexity of the issues. I am sure they will be reading it in Whitehall.

I don’t have a lot if time ( I’m on grandma duties ) but I know Many small businesses in the forum I attend are terrified . Two of our significant customers are “moving some of their manufacturing abroad” and see it as the only way forward. How could we not see this coming ?
The FSB write a lot about how brexit will/might effect sme’s .

I would hope that the party leaders and their advisors at least would be working on contingency plans at a more detailed and local level than which EU organisation we join, whether they are for or against Brexit. Even the GN political remain pundits could spare a little time from expressing their dismay at the prospect of Brexit to cast around for ways of softening the impact when the axe falls., and the leavers should definitely be thinking hard about what positive, constructive legislation and what support organisations will be needed in the years after the big change of direction.

As it is, all I see is repeats of the same accusations of exactly who is to blame for the situation. At this point it doesn't matter who dropped us off the precipice Whoever it was, we need a parachute, PDQ, and if no-one is busy designing and constructing one, then it is time somone got busy.

There are people on GN who pride themselves on their knowledge and experience of political/financial matters. Some have small businesses, some are not but have the academic experience of MBAs, some presumably have both. I would have thought a few ideas would have surfaced by now.

Agreed.

One good thing for some, will be that if the £ drops even further down (which would be a disaster for us all living abroad on UK pensions) - it would make it cheaper to export. But those gains would probably be lost in the tons of extra red tape. On the other hand, for those importing, it would be very detrimental.

I know jura but as I said on another thread there was nothing about the four freedoms on the ballot paper. Yes it will cost money, but it seems to me that the alternative is an economic disaster. And before anyone turns up to say “you can’t foretell the future” I would say at this distance you certainly can. ?

Totally agree Mamie- but it will mean the 4 freedoms as part of the deal, and no say and large sums of money.

Elegran I hope that the UK government will eventually see sense and go for the EEA / EFTA option. It will be far inferior to full membership but is the best that can be hoped for in terms of damage limitation for the economy.

there doesn't seem to be any plan of "How to move forward once the deed is done" None from either major party, none from the most active and vocal political posters on Gransnet.

Quite frankly, as the most active and vocal political posters seem to be completely anti-Brexit I don't actually see why they should have to 'plan' anything.

And if you're thinking that you might get something useful from the vocal Leavers I'd suggest that you don't hold your breath.

Some small business owners posted a while back about the problems they face at present. I don't remember them getting much sympathy, so perhaps they don't think it worth responding - or maybe they don't have the time to research what is being contemplated (if anything).