Wilma KF - "I may have misunderstood, but isn't the reason for the weak and fluctuating pound mainly down to business and the markets not having confidence in the Brexit negotiations?"
Wilma, as you know, currency is always fluctuating. Nothing new there. Of course after the referendum people imagined a tsunami of a crash on the pound, which didn't happen. Forecasters, including the Governor of the Bank of England, got it very wrong, by his own admission.
I think we have to expect continued fluctuation until a few years after Brexit is a reality. I might be wrong. I am no economist but I imagine most people would expect the same. There is lots of hopeful news regarding the economy out there, post referendum. The PM has just clinched a £9billion deal with China, before Brexit.
Below is an update from today which outlines how the pound does fluctuate but has also made gains over the dollar and the euro. Good news, I'd say.
THIS - from Pound Sterling Live. ie: written today by James Skinner.
"Pound Sterling appeared to shrug off a surprise fall in the IHS Markit manufacturing PMI data on Thursday, when it clung to earlier gains over the Dollar, Euro and broader G10 basket.
January’s IHS Markit survey showed the manufacturing index slipping to 55.3, down from 56.2 in December and below the consensus expectation of economists for an increase to 56.5.
However, Sterling's reaction confirms the obvious - the manufacturing sector continues to expand at a solid pace and will continue to provide support to the economy
Nevertheless, the result marks the second consecutive month of decline for the index, taking it back to a level last seen in June 2017, although it still remains substantially above its long term average of 51.7
"The detail of the report showed that most of the decline in the headline PMI resulted from a moderation in the pace of current output and new orders.
Still, with the flow of new orders continuing to come through at a healthy rate, firms registered an improvement in prospects for future activity. Accordingly, manufacturing firms continued to hire additional workers – the pace of which picked up over the month," says Nikesh Sawjani, UK Economist with Lloyds Bank's Commercial Banking unit.
The IHS Markit PMI is a survey that measures changes in business conditions in the manufacturing industry from month to month. It asks respondents to rate current conditions across a range of areas including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories.
“Manufacturing output continued to rise at a solid pace, although the rate of expansion eased to a six-month low...Sector data signalled solid increases in output and new orders across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors,” IHS Markit say, on releasing their findings.
There is however undeniably good news to be found in findings that the recent trend of rising export orders gained further momentum during January, which is good news for the Pound, with foreign demand rising at its fastest pace for over four years.
Much of this increased demand came from North America, China, Europe and the Middle East
www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/8431-pound-sterling-uk-manufacturing-starts-2018-on-a-firm-footing
I'd say the outlook is very promising. I don't expect the next few years to be plain sailing in terms of the economy - does anyone? - but there are many reasons to be optimistic.