The Poverty of Brexit

Information about the coming months of Brexit, from today’s Observer.

1.Committee stage in House of Lords- February
To take place later this month.
Lords will vote on a range of amendments, like whether the U.K. should stay in SM and CU. Another will d3cid3 whether to delete the commitment to 29/03/2019
Call for second referendum on final deal.
The most likely trouble is over the Customs Union.
If the Lords challenge May over any of these, her autnority will be seriously damaged.

2.Labour Shifts. February
Dealt over Customs Union much more likely if labour officially changes nd supports staying in SM and CU.
Much of shadow cabinet including Starmer want to back a permanent Cu membership
There is to be a day or two set aside later this month to decide.
If Labour shift, and join pro-Eu Tories, libs snp and green May will be defeated. She will be unable to deliver a hard Brexit.

3Transition row -March
There is to be a summit where a transition arrangement is signed off.
May wants a deal which carries on as now until 2021.
Mogg and other headbangers are objecting.

4. Business is despairing.-end March

If nothing concrete can be delivered£ by end March, industry will begin contingency plans including moving to the EU mainland,
If Nissan, Toyota and Honda move the result will be devastating.

5Tory rout in May local elections.-May

If this happens Mays position will become untenable and undoubtedly will be challenged.
Johnson, Gove and Mogg already on manoeuvres.

6. What deal -summer
Negotiations should be well on the way towards the final relationship between the EU and U.K.
Canada? Norway?
Nothing of any sense so far
Ireland will not countenance a hard border so if this looks likely it can scupper the entire deal.

7.EUs reaction - late October
There must be a strong majority, of the 27 Not necessarily unanimous.
It then goes to the EU Parliament which could also block the deal.
Ireland could persuade others if it isn’t happy.

8 MPs decide -December.
The problem is that at this stage all that will be actually decided are the heads of agreement and not any fine detail.
This will mean that talking will go into transition, which by this time the U.K. will have left. If a skeleton deal is rejected by parliament because of being too damaging to the economy or jobs or both - May would be gone.

The irony is that the EU Parliament seems to have a higher level of democracy than the U.K.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/leading-newcastle-university-cancer-professor-14265905

Another cancer expert leaving the north east.

Well I, for one, would be quite happy to be proved wrong if we manage to achieve a Brexit that doesn't seriously damage the economy, the environment, international relations and peace (in Ireland) and people's welfare.
I just don't want this manic episode to ruin the country and the life chances of future generations.
And I fear that a Brexit that has a positive (or even neutral) effect for the majority of the UK will be impossible to achieve.

Good point Loopyloo isn’t that the underlying cause of the global stock market blip this week?

And sometimes even when they do know the ridiculous price for some reason they agree to it - look at the cost of the new EDF/Chinese Nuclear power station being built in Somerset.

I think a bigger threat to people's finances is rising interest rates coming from the US because of growth.
The young are so used to very low rates and if we have a Labour government things will change a lot too.
Think I might start saving.

Someone will. Who ever imports anything without knowing the cost at source?

Do you think it's a good idea to import more fuel when we don't know what the tariffs will be?

Day6 said :
You have just written people should be "prepared for the economic damage leaving will produce." You do like that crystal ball. I love the way remainers have set themselves up as soothsayers of doom and gloom. grin
You must enjoy being miserable.
-------
I see your link is to the Sun, not an unbiassed source. In fact, quite often printing total lies.

All the reputable economic groups have said how bad any Brexit will be for the ordinary people and businesses in the country. I do not enjoy being miserable, I am just fearful for the future lives of my children and grandchildren. I see far more sense coming out of the EU than from Davis, Gove and the other 33 hardliners,

You just proved my point about fingers in the ears.

The squirming cats reference was a response to a point someone else made, sorry that wasn’t clear.

Why should it matter about the pipeline? It’s the basis we do business on that is the important factor. We aren’t going to pretend Europe doesn’t exist, just conduct business with each and every European market on different and unique terms negotiated case by case. If France didn’t want to do business with us, or hadn’t offered us suitable terms, the pipeline wouldn’t be built. It’s obviously been agreed by both parties.

No idea why you are talking about squirming cats. I never said anything about them.

However, you haven't answered my question.
Do you think that a uk which wants to leave the EU should be putting pipelines under the channel to France, so we can use EU energy?

Durhamjen I said I don’t believe half of what is written. That also means I don’t disbelieve everything. I read several newspapers and listen to various media programmes and look for the common facts, not the varying opinions or fiction. It’s not weird at all. It’s called fact checking and is reasonable.

And to defend my phrase ‘squirming cats’ I’m just making the point that the head of every EU country has, at heart, his/her own country as a priority if only because they will inevitably have to answer to the electorate. Having said that my reasons for voting Leave were as individual and personal as the next voter and it’s a mistake for people to make assumptions about who voters like me are or why we voted. I actually find that insulting. I’m not right wing or uneducated, I’m not anti Europe nor do I want to ruin the future for those who are coming behind. Quite the contrary.

In your exitment day6 you really didn’t read the article produced by the Trash.

Apart from the fact that they are desperately trying to divert attention away from the impact assessments which we know are quite clear on the severe downturn - the result of various types of Brexit, the institutions they are quoting are indicating growth for 2018, not post Brexit.
The truth is that growth has slowed year on year. The U.K. is now the second slowest in the G7.

All indicators by these institutions continue to point to growth slowing post Brexit. Only the transition period will prevent growth slowing and perhaps entering a recession, all are also agreed that only the continual closest possible relationship will support economic growth.

I clicked the link just to see who was printing the rubbish - that is not what Carney was saying when interviewed the other evening!

It’s in the Sun - must be true.

But I thought expert predictions weren’t to be trusted? Impact assessments not necessary?

"There are fewer and fewer people both here and there who are prepared for the economic damage leaving will produce.
How much longer can people put their fingers in their ears, and say Project Fear La la la I can't hear you "

yggdrasil

That must be similar to the blindfolds Remainers wear. They somehow never rejoice that the economy, post referendum, is not in decline, as they wanted.

You have just written people should be "prepared for the economic damage leaving will produce." You do like that crystal ball. I love the way remainers have set themselves up as soothsayers of doom and gloom.

You must enjoy being miserable.

Look - a positive headline this morning from the Bank of England. They are admitting once again that their predictions were WRONG. . I expect you'll close your eyes and sing la lalala and try to ignore it?

CHANGED YOUR TUNE Now the Bank of England says economy WILL thrive after Brexit – becoming the latest forecaster to make a dramatic U-turn on doom-mongering warnings.

"The Bank, along with its Project Fear-spouting Governor Mark Carney, joins the IMF, the OECD, the EU and the Treasury in having to eat their gloomy words about what voting to leave the EU would do to the country.

There are numerous other times so-called finance “experts” have had to upgrade their outlook on Brexit Britain:"

All the times the financial experts have got it wrong about the economic outlook after the Brexit vote are outlined here.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/5541995/now-the-bank-of-england-says-economy-will-thrive-after-brexit-becoming-the-latest-forecaster-to-make-a-dramatic-u-turn-on-doom-mongering-warnings/

I do hope that cheers you up.

I understand that some people are worried about our means of exiting, but that isn’t the same as a burning anger that we are leaving.Two different things.
Comments such as ‘ the EU are being very patient’ ( you think?!) and disparaging remarks about any political UK figure in the Brexit negotiations, whilst saying how wonderful the EU are, is just adding fuel to their anger.
Nobody knows what goes on behind the scenes, but you would be forgiven for thinking that some GNers are flies on the wall both in Number 10 and in Brussels.

"We will leave the EU and life will go on, and then perhaps the knashing of teeth and the rending of garments will cease."

We can only hope.
I find the lack of acceptance quite sad, especially as it is paired with a burning desire for the UK to flounder.

What on earth will Remoaners do then? I imagine they will still be harping on about the evils of Brexit 30 years from now. Should we ever have ANY upset, of any kind, no matter how trivial, you can bet Brexit will be mentioned.

Life is just too short to be bitter, isn't it?

Gnashing! ( although I rather like knashing.)

'you and I and others will be taken out and shot when the fascists take over'

Yes, I agree. The hard left is tyrannous, takes no prisoners and hides under the cloak of the Labour Party. It is worrying.

mollie You are right, much is going on behind the scenes and beyond any posturing.We will leave the EU and life will go on, and then perhaps the knashing of teeth and the rending of garments will cease.

Or some of us will be taken out and shot when Momentum aka The Labour Party take over.

I just hope that Gnet has our personal data well encrypted and has thrown away the key. Otherwise, you and I and others will be taken out and shot when the fascists take over

maize some good posts. Thank you