Regret it Brexit Part 2

There is a clear misunderstanding or confusion about being a remain voter at the Referendum and voting at the General Election.

Remain and leave camps came from cross party sources, a free individual vote. The General Election was party politics. The vote was to decide which party would Govern the country and they gave promises about how they would do that.

I know this is stating the obvious but that is what a General Election is about. MP's should not stand if they do not believe in the mandate on which their party is standing. This is Party politics, not a referendum, where MP's can vote for what they want. Candidates stand as a Labour or Conservative MP on the Party's mandate. The Whip in each party ensures compliance with the party policies, and the promises made to the people who voted for them on those promises.

Despite all that has been said, MP's in Parliament now, were elected at the General Election when the two main parties stood on a Pro Brexit mandate.

The current electoral system is majority vote wins.
We can talk forever about who abstained, who voted but didn't believe in the Pro Brexit mandate on which Labour and Conservative stood for election. The truth is that both main parties stood on a Pro Brexit platform for election, they were elected, as were their MP's therefore if they had no intention of fulfilling that promise then that is a deception on a grand scale that the electorate will not forgive. It will bring our democracy down. That will never happen.

It is nonsense to have voted for a party that clearly say's they are Pro Brexit, when that is not your view, then complain when the promise is about to be fulfilled for those who believed the promise and that was the majority vote.

Despite the leaning of the political parties some MPs stuck to their principles are stayed supporters of RemIning in the EU.

This chart shows the numbers of Remain and Leave voters amongst the supporters of each political party.

The last General Election, like all GEs in this country was fought on the basis of First Past The Post, which means that there are only two parties who can possibly win. In many places there is little point in voting as the same party always wins. Most voters end up being represented by someone they did not chose. Because of this many folk abstain from voting. Those who do vote often do so on the basis of the "lesser of two evils". Many policies might be considered and it is nonsense to suggest that everyone who voted Tory or Labour endorsed brexit.

This country will never become a proper democracy until we have electoral reform and replace FPTP with a system of Proportional Representation.

The last time the people were asked to elect MP's to Parliament was in the General Election. Labour stood on a pro Brexit mandate, therefore all MP's who are in Parliament now, are there because the people who voted for them did so on a pro Brexit mandate. The cross party referendum is one thing but the General Election confirmed and committed elected MP's to a Labour Pro Brexit mandate.

Remain was the verdict of the majority of Labour MPs, the majority of Labour Party members and the majority of Labour Party voters.

Why have all these people been sidelined by the Labour Party Leadership?

I think it would be a good idea, Ally, if you were to differentiate more clearly between quotes from the article and your own interpretation of it. Someone reading quickly might miss the little quotation marks.

From the article:

In a study of all 650 UK parliamentary seats, the pro-remain group Best for Britain found numerous examples of Labour-held constituencies where remain supporters outnumber the MP’s majority.

It's a 'study' not a poll and the basis for it was YouGov data compiled post the referendum. As it is information on what people have 'done' rather than what they 'intend' to do I suspect it is more likely to be reliable.

I'm intrigued as to how they managed to narrow it down to constituency when the vote was regional but as YouGov have a regular bank of people to be polled I assume that they can pull out a representative sample of voters by constituency by virtue of the data they hold on them.

Guardian article:
"The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has ruled out supporting a Norway-style close relationship with the EU, although his deputy, Tom Watson, hinted at the weekend that a policy shift to back EEA membership could still be on the table.

Seven in 10 Labour-held constituencies voted to leave the EU and a recent meeting of the parliamentary Labour party was dominated by a bitter row over the single market, with MPs in pro-Brexit seats warning that supporting it would damage their electoral chances."

A recent poll suggest that the labour vote in the GE was more remain than leave voters for certain constituencies.

With the reputation that polls have over the last ten years of being wrong, what MP would put his job on the line by taking the risk of believing any poll. They are not going to take any risk of that Poll being wrong and will ere on the side of caution assuming that the Poll is wrong.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/29/labour-mps-fear-brexit-voters-unfounded-study

Labour MPs may be encouraged to fight against Brexit by this survey of Labour constituencies Brexit/Remain balance.

The number of Labour leave voters in each constituency could be lower than previously thought, suggesting MPs in pro-Brexit seats who fear being punished at the ballot box unless they adopt a hardline stance could be worrying unnecessarily, a campaign group has said.

In a study of all 650 UK parliamentary seats, the pro-remain group Best for Britain found numerous examples of Labour-held constituencies where remain supporters outnumber the MP’s majority.

The group has briefed many MPs on its findings in the hope of emboldening Labour politicians who had been reluctant to push the party leadership to support staying in the European Economic Area because of constituents’ views.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/29/labour-mps-fear-brexit-voters-unfounded-study

A Labour Party in internal ideology conflict. The battle between far left activist group Momentum and Trade Unions who want a puppet Government in the UK Parliament so that they can pull the strings of power!

A report in the Guardian says: "At last year’s Labour conference in Brighton, Momentum and some of the unions joined forces to prevent the Brexit issue being debated in order to avoid exposing the party split and embarrassing the relatively Eurosceptic Corbyn. At the time, many of his MPs and peers were pushing for him to back permanent membership of the single market.
This year the arguments over Brexit look likely to be even more heated and calls for a debate will be far more difficult to resist in September, when the date of the UK’s departure will be less than six months away."

"Michael Chessum, who was on Momentum’s first steering committee in 2016/17 and is now national organiser of the leftwing anti-Brexit group"
“ I’m confident that they will support the right of members to democratically debate issues as pivotal as Brexit and free movement. There should be a consensus around that"

Twenty something Chessums confidence in my view no doubt comes from the support that Momentum gave mob handed during the General Election campaign to support Corbyn's campaign. Deals been struck and Corbyn will no doubt have to deliver his side of the deal now.

Twenty something, "Michael Chessum, national organiser of the anti-Brexit group Another Europe is Possible: ‘It is urgent that we clearly place an alternative to Brexit on the table– one linked to a radical vision for society under a Corbyn-led Labour government.”
Chessum should have said far left Marxist/Trotsky Government under Corbyn. Radical I suspect being code of far left communist state ownership of everything. Home ownership will disappear and the right to freedom of speech will, as is being witnessed by non left wing labour party members and MPs, now, is being squashed by personal attack, taunts and even physical threats of violence and degrading acts against women MP's, all intended to silence and conforms to the far left line.

I predict that there will be an attempt to oust Corbyn by the real Labour Party, if that fails, then we will see a reclaiming of the name Labour from the Corbyn led far left controlled by Momentum and The Trade Unions, with a break away Labour Party that the moderate left and centre will be happy to associate with and vote for.

Outside of London is where I predict the ground swell against Momentum and the Trade Unions will be, should an alternative Labour Party emerge. This will bring the internal Labour Party conflict into the open. The far left will be pushed to the margins by the real Labour Party voters if they are given an alternative party with Labour values with which they can associate.

Pasted elements in this Post are from:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/26/corbyn-under-pressure-momentum-give-members-vote-labour-brexit-policy?C

In spite of the fact that the right-wing tabloids continue to campaign for a hard brexit and label any evidence of the damage the brexit vote has already caused "project fear", the balance of opinion has shifted.

The UK would vote to remain in the EU if a second Brexit referendum were held, new polling analysis has suggested.
Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov and polling analyst, suggested that up to one million Labour supporters who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum are having second thoughts. In an article for Prospect, he points out that YouGov has carried out 14 polls this year asking people if the UK was right or wrong to vote for Brexit.

“Thirteen of 14 polls this year show slightly more people saying ‘wrong’ than ‘right’,” he said. This indicates a small but consistent net move away from Brexit.”

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-second-referendum-vote-leave-remain-swing-poll-a8371451.html

Very worrying varian.
I hope we Remain in EU, but even that was never going to be easy. A divided nation, an EU accepting us back half-heartedly. The set backs of employment and investment already having moved elsewhere.
I’m not sure that Britain is an “ailing industrial nation” now though. Were more of a service industry nation now aren’t we?
Challenging times ahead whatever happens with Brexit.

It is quite salutory to try to see ourselves as others see us. David Brown, writing in the South China Morning Post (the main English language paper in HK) says it is looking likely that the UK will stay in the European Union, but the economy will not easily recover from the consequences of the extended dithering

"UK investors face some tough choices ahead – either Brexit happens badly, well or not at all. While Britain slumps into deep Brexit gloom, UK equity markets are still surprisingly upbeat. Markets may be sensing Brexit is never going to happen, given the impossible odds stacking up against the UK ever striking an acceptable exit deal with Europe. If so, forget about Brexit, it is Bremain – or Britain remaining in the European Union – which investors need to fear.

Either way, the outlook is grim. With or without Brexit, Britain is still an ailing industrial nation. So any short-term relief about Bremain must be blunted by the reality that Britain is stuck in the grip of longer-term economic decline. The shock Brexit vote two years ago simply accelerated the process. The jolt to confidence has ripped a big hole in investment and spending, and started unravelling many of the lifelines propping up the economy. Britain may never fully recover.UK investors face some tough choices ahead – either Brexit happens badly, well or not at all. While Britain slumps into deep Brexit gloom, UK equity markets are still surprisingly upbeat. Markets may be sensing Brexit is never going to happen, given the impossible odds stacking up against the UK ever striking an acceptable exit deal with Europe. If so, forget about Brexit, it is Bremain – or Britain remaining in the European Union – which investors need to fear.

Either way, the outlook is grim. With or without Brexit, Britain is still an ailing industrial nation. So any short-term relief about Bremain must be blunted by the reality that Britain is stuck in the grip of longer-term economic decline. The shock Brexit vote two years ago simply accelerated the process. The jolt to confidence has ripped a big hole in investment and spending, and started unravelling many of the lifelines propping up the economy. Britain may never fully recover.

Britain has entered a netherworld of indecision and the longer it lasts the greater the chances the default option emerges – that a rational solution is beyond the government’s grasp and staying in the EU is the only plausible alternative. It might not be what more than half the nation wanted two years ago, but the odds are that the country has already tilted back the other way. Britons have become Brexit punch-drunk and recent polls suggest most voters now favour staying in the EU."

www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2148052/whether-its-brexit-or-bremain-uk-long-term-economic-decline

The UK would vote to remain in the EU if a second Brexit referendum were held, new polling analysis has suggested.

Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov and polling analyst, suggested that up to one million Labour supporters who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum are having second thoughts.

In an article for Prospect, he points out that YouGov has carried out 14 polls this year asking people if the UK was right or wrong to vote for Brexit.

Time to ‘face the reality’ of Brexit, EU’s chief negotiator tells UK. “Thirteen of 14 polls this year show slightly more people saying ‘wrong’ than ‘right’,” he said. “This indicates a small but consistent net move away from Brexit.”

A large part of Mr Kellner’s belief stems from data showing that generally older voters supported Leave, whereas younger voters tended to support Remain. He said: “Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying – and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-second-referendum-vote-leave-remain-swing-poll-a8371451.html

It’s about time their policy was debated openly again. Good!

I see that Momentum and the unions are pressing for a debate and vote on Brexit at the September LP conference.

I don't quite know why they were against it last year. Perhaps they've finally twigged that JC has no cunning plan and would be perfectly happy to Leave?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/26/corbyn-under-pressure-momentum-give-members-vote-labour-brexit-policy?CMP=share_btn_tw

Emperor’s new clothes scenario. There’s only one sensible solution of course maizie and varian.
Which top politicians are going to be brave enough?

Absolutely varian!

Interesting twitter thread about the 'Norway option', harmless

twitter.com/kirmber2/status/981934634807300096

The least bad option, or in other words, the best option, is for the UK to Remain in the EU.

This is perfectly do-able. The referendum, won by lies, was only advisory. Article 50 can be revoked.

We do not have to jump off that cliff to please the tiny number of unscrupulous billionaires who want us to do just that.

They may profit from brexit, but the rest of the UK population - you, me and the other 65 million of us would suffer. Why should we not just wake up and say "NO"?

So maizie the Norway option (EEA) is the least bad option?

We would have no say in EU laws but would have to abide by them?

We would pay annually to join Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein in the EEA. (About the same per head as we pay for EU membership now?)

We would stay in the single market. (Does that mean that our financial services would be safe?)

Does it mean there would be no hard Irish border, so solving the Northern Ireland problem?

Free movement (no new immigration restrictions)?

EU citizen rights unchanged from current status perhaps?

Oh well. Not what anyone wanted but a way out of the current mess.

This poll result was published in April by a Think Tank called Global Future.

While the respondents might not be actually 'regretting' Brexit they clearly didn't expect what we are likely to be getting:

Start

Based on government estimates, in the long term the Brexit scenarios below would cut the amount of money available for spending on public services by the equivalent of the following:

EEA model: £260m per week (equivalent to about 9% of what we currently spend on the NHS).
FTA model: £875m per week (equivalent to about 31% of what we currently spend on the NHS).
WTO model: £1.25bn per week (equivalent to about 44% of what we currently spend on the NHS).
Government preferred bespoke model: £615 million per week (equivalent to about 22% of what we currently spend on the NHS).

Part Two: New Polling
Global Future, working with Populus, then asked the public how they felt about the four deals we analyse. In particular we asked whether they thought the overall cost of each deal represented ‘too high a price’ to leave the EU. In addition, we asked Leave voters whether each deal represented a deal that was as good or better than they had hoped for when casting their vote, or worse. In both cases the results were emphatic:

Leavers and the public at large reject every Brexit deal modelled by government, and ministers’ own preferred scenario (EEA, FTA, WTO, a bespoke deal), as Too High a Price to leave the EU by enormous majorities.
The vast majority of Leavers regard each deal as worse than they had hoped when voting to Leave the EU.
Finally, we asked voted, if forced to choose which deal they would like to leave the EU both Leavers
(narrowly), and the public at large (by a significant distance), chose the EEA model (the so-called Norway option) as their preferred deal of those on the table.

End

More information available from the linked page

ourglobalfuture.com/reports/too-high-a-price-the-cost-of-brexit-what-the-public-thinks/

That’s sounds like an appropriate acronym.
But don’t worry, it will change to a different customs system by next week!
Does anyone understand all the subtle differences between “Customs regularity alignment”, “continued regularity alignment” and “full regularity alignment” anyway?

Seeing as how we are may be aligned until at least 2023 this one could run and run. Interesting May is suggesting a Customs Regularity Alignment Position or C.R.A.P. It must be true it was in the Daily Excess
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/964630/brexit-theresa-may-european-union-transition-period-hard-border-northern-ireland/amp

It was really a textbook example of how not to run a referendum.

David Cameron grossly exceeded his Executive powers by promising that the result would be honoured. It was the first blow to the British constitution and it's been reeling from repeated assaults ever since.