Regret it Brexit Part 2

POGS, I totally agree that the leadership of both major parties is most definitely under threat due to Brexit disagreements within their organisations. Even the most right-wing newspapers are stating today that the May government could collapse as early as next week if some kind of agreement cannot be reached among her warring cabinet members at Chequers over the weekend.

However, I cannot see how in the Conservative party at this time any alternative leader acceptable to the majority is to be found. Therefore, a very disruptive general election could well have to be held at a time when the Brexit date is fast approaching.

However, within the Parliamentary Labour Party deep splits exist in regard to Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn seemingly not even clear on his position in regards to Britain leaving the European Union. Therefore, it has to be asked if a general election would, in fact, solve any of the major questions facing Britain in regards to the European Union.

With now any number of large manufacturing companies and other businesses stressing that they may well leave Britain in favour of the re-establishment in the European Union should Britain leave in a hard Brexit, then I believe many would wonder in regards to the future stability of the United Kingdom should the above come about.

If a hard Brexit where to bring about the loss of many thousands of jobs, then disruption and perhaps even violence on Britain's streets is not beyond the realms of possibility.

As we both agreed the other day POGS, realism and pragmatism should be now at the forefront of everyone's minds as we look at this seemingly desperate and insolvable problem that we all find ourselves in.

Anyway POGS I am in the office today, so I had better get on with the work. England also takes another step tonight towards lifting the World Cup, so perhaps that can lift the gloom overhanging the country at the moment. Therefore, it is unlikely that I shall be on the forum again today and I hope to be celebrating a very large win

Anyone who is still asking which of the "elite" have made money by gambling on this country's future should read "The Brexit Short: How Hedge Funds Used Private Polls to Make Millions" Private polls—and a timely ‘concession’ from the face of Leave—allowed the funds to make millions off the pound’s collapse.

www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

These same bankers and their political associates in the ERG are almost certainly the only people who stand to benefit from a "jump off the cliff" leave with no deal scenario, whilst the rest of the British people would suffer the consequences for generations.

A Bloomberg report alleged that currency speculators used inaccurate early predictions of a remain victory to profit by shorting the pound.

Farage twice said he thought the remain campaign had won the referendum but, according to Bloomberg, was privy to private exit poll data indicating the public had voted in favour of leaving the EU. At 10pm on the day of the referendum, Farage gave an interview to Sky News in which he said: “it looks like remain will edge it. Ukip and I are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future.”

Why did Nigel Farage tell the world he thought remain had won? Just over an hour later, Farage gave a second interview to the Press Association, in which he said: “I don’t know, but I think remain will edge it, yes … If I am wrong, I would be thrilled. But it is what we have seen out and about, and what I know from some of my friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling.”

Bloomberg noted that books, by the leave campaign financier Arron Banks and the political journalist Tim Shipman, both said Farage learned the results of “an unidentified, financial services exit poll” before polls closed at 10pm. Farage told Bloomberg that the only external exit poll he received on the day of the referendum was conducted by Survation. Survation’s poll correctly predicted that leave would win the referendum. He repeatedly told Bloomberg that he learned the results of the exit poll “minutes after” Sky broadcast his comments.

The news of an apparent concession by the leave campaign’s most prominent figure immediately after polls closed pushed the value of sterling higher. However, when the pound subsequently crashed as the true result became clear, any individuals or companies with short bets would have profited. Shorting is the practice of selling shares or other assets which you don’t own, in the hope of buying them back at a cheaper price in the future and making a profit.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote

Grandad 1943 Sun 01-Jul-18 13:16:45

" If that result is confirmed Unite with other Unions will without doubt put enormous pressure on Corbyn and those around him to take a far firmer stance against Brexit.

Should he not, then a change of leader would be very much on the cards I believe. "

Goodness me so both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are in some peoples eyes suffering from the curse of Leadership and mutiny.

But until Brexit is underway, they can’t kick too much!

They all want her job, lemon. They just don't want it until the Brexit disaster is under way and they can blame her for it. In the meantime they'll be as outrageous as they please because they know she daren't sack them.

Not at all Maizie but all May has to do is remind them that if they value their jobs they will all have to compromise to some degree, it’s unlikely they will want an election and Corbyn in number 10 or to lose their positions as ministers.
Most politicians would fall into line given an ultimatum like that.

I think they're more likely to read May the riot act. You are hopelessly naive, lemon.

So mostly to continue your analogy, I don’t think there will be any blood on the carpet, more that they will all be read the riot act by T May, and will fall into line.Which line, is another matter.

The EU have far too much to worry about without Brexit being a big deal to them at the moment.
The Conservatives will rally, because, for a political party (any) being in power is more important in the end to them,
Than any disagreements that could end in an election.

I’ve heard that May is holding a Murder-Mystery weekend at Chequers this Friday. So the Cabinet can thrash out the Mystery “third way” plan to solve the Irish border problem.
The question is, whose blood will be left on the carpet?

I believe today (2nd July) has seen the disagreements within this Tory government sink to new levels. We have senior ministers telling others ministers and MPs to "shut up" and reports in the media of Secretaries of State now "doing their own thing" within their departments and in that disregarding whatever any government policy may be.

We also have witnessed Jacob Reece-Mogg instructing the Prime Minister to deliver the "version of Brexit promised" which is without a doubt his hard-line version of Brexit being that no one within government seems to know exactly what was promised.

We are told that the Prime Minister has come forward with a third version of a customs agreement even though any agreement JRM and those surrounding him have made clear would be unacceptable if any hard Brexit concessions have to be made to gain it.

The EU negotiators must be thinking "what a shambles" and how do they talk to the British representatives with any confidence anything they agree on will be passed by the British parliament.

The whole situation would normally be laughable if it were not for the fact that hundreds of thousands of UK jobs are at stake in all this totally incompetent behaviour.

David Davis has spent just 4 hours in talks with Michel Barnier this year

www.ft.com/content/9e3aacf0-7b9c-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

What was the point? Surely before triggering Article 50 the government should have agreed what they want. DD is obviously useless but since none of them know what it is they are aiming for, there really wasn't any point in starting the process.

Of course, David Davis famously said that this would be the easiest negotiation in history, so maybe he thought there was no need to know what the government wants, and four hours would be more than enough.

Of course the UK can use article 50and get out ... but it has to be prepared to pay the massive, drastic consequences... which will leave the country, the NHS and all our essential services starved of funds... and the consequent effects on the majority of people. Nobody is bullying the UK ... they quite sensibly say, if you want o be part of the club, or have strong association to the club, to your advantage, some rules have to abided by, and you need to pay your fair share. The UK already had negotiated huge rights no pne else got,
like keeping Sterling and opting out of Schengen....

There's nothing intrinsically wrong with A50. It's just that before implementing it a country must have a very clear strategy, based on the practicalities of disentangling itself from the legal entity which is the EU and of the intricacies and timing of negotiations.

As the government's only strategy seemed to be that of insisting that we leave the EU but retain all of its benefits without any consideration of how this could be done or even stopping to consider that it might not be possible, it is not surprising that they are in a complete mess now.

What on earth possessed May to lay down all those 'red lines' right at the start when it was clear that they wouldn't be acceptable to the EU, I do not know.

Good post, grandad and I agree with your conclusion.

I do not believe that the EU negotiators are set on ruining Britain on its exit from Europe. However, I have no doubts that they stand completely confused by the British government's total incompetence in being unable to bring forward any credible negotiating position to the EU at any time in the two years since the referendum.

The problem is not the European Union trying to ruin Britain, it is Britain ruining itself by the rifts in the political party and government which has brought us all into the position we find ourselves now.

Judging by media reports today, those rifts continue to grow in the Tory party leaving a hard Brexit practically the only option left open to them. However, those blinkered, stupid ultra right wingers leading that option seem not to realize that there is no majority in the House of Commons for such action.

Should the government fall trying to push a "no deal" exit through parliament, then Britain could face a constitutional crisis the scale of which has never been wittnessed in Britain throughout modern times.

Why blame the EU for being “difficult” our government can’t agree on what they want if the reports on Gove tearing up May’s proposals are anything to go by.

It would seem that way ! What puzzles me is, why have a get out clause (article50) in the agreement if in reality it can't be used?!! All we've done is exercise a right to leave this organisation in what we hoped could be an orderly fashion, not committed a criminal offense comparable to heresy!
Surely in having such a clause the EU must have been aware that one day someone might want to put it into operation and have been able to react accordingly. I can see that they're are being tough to prevent others getting the same idea! But surely nobody in this benevolent, all embracing organisation could possibly want to leave, except silly old Briton, so why the fuss?!! I would hate to think that if eventually Scotland wishes to leave the Union, Westminster would deliberately, methodically set out to ruin them!

So much “hate”. Is that really what this is all about?

petra! ? I think we both 'hate' the 'EU' in equal measure!!

petra
Say five Hail Mary’s in penance.

Last Friday it was all going so well at the summit Re 'the new immigration policy'
Now Merkels interior minister,Horst Seehofer has resigned, I think her days are numbered.
It took them 4 months to form this last government, what now. Not a good time for the the most powerful country in Europe to have these problems. My heart bleeds.

That is prudent of the Government then, if true jura

Of course you would say that Varian

There are very few "leave" experts. The weight of informed opinion has always been predominantly on the "remain" side. I would say for every leave "expert" there must be at least a hundred better informed "remain" experts.

That is why Michael Gove urged people to ignore experts.

And in the meantime th GVT has admittd it is stockpiling medication/drugs, including those for cancer and other life threatening conditions, in preparation for a NO deal scenario.