Likely consequenses of brexit

Who can we believe ? Politicians, media? all with their own agenda!!

Personally, nellie I'd not believe either. I go for the people who have experience of the EU, trade negotiations, international relations etc. or who have made a thorough academic study of the topics under discussion.

One thing that was quite clear during the referendum campaign, and was confirmed by later analysis, was that experts had very little input into the 'debate'

From: UK press coverage of the EU referendum

Of the 2378 articles analysed, 41% were pro-leave and 27% pro-remain. Press coverage focused heavily on politicians and campaign spokespeople with relatively little few analysts/experts, academics and foreign politicians cited. Analysts/experts made up 11% of spokespeople cited, and academics just 2%. Foreign politicians made up 5% of spokespeople cited.

www.rcmediafreedom.eu/Publications/Reports/UK-press-coverage-of-the-EU-referendum

Added to that, of course, was the scorn of at least one leading Brexiter for 'experts'.

At some point one has to make a decision on something; I prefer to make choices that are reasonably well informed. You, it seems to me, think that reading tea leaves is a perfectly fine way to make decisions because you can't trust anything anyone says.

Based on the timing of Joelsnan message, I presume rightly or wrongly my comments had been consider.
, when writing the latest comments.

I had in fact accepted the referendum even though the majority of the electorate believed it to be flawed based on recent polls.

My comments are based on the obvious situation we have in the Commons today and that so many of our politicians are unable to get away from tribal prejudicial politics in defying their vision of Brexit, which is creating instability. Therefore I simply asked what is the best way forward?
We all need to accept that the referendum has not defined Brexit, but instead todate created the most distructive mess of recent time. What we have created is one of greatest issues facing any nation, Brexit plans as we know so far have not generated constructive policies that will reduce the risk of leaving or define if staying in the eu is really the best for or nation. We have had lies upon lies.
What we do know is that the unnecessary referendum has caused so much pain, uncertainty and loss of jobs for many, it has created problems for the NHS and the agriculture industry and uncertainty for the City and the CBI,. Some may believe that is good , many will differ. What ever, let’s now come up with a realistic solution where we provide future generations with greater opportunities and stability than the Brexit result created. Let leavers prove to me and so many others that the risks of leaving are well worthwhile and future generations will thank us. I have not as yet seen any realistic impact assessment or business plan to give me that confidence that the risk of leaving is sensible.

Michael Gove has admitted that the official leave campaign should not have stoked fears about Turkish immigration during the 2016 Brexit referendum.

In an interview included in a political book published on Thursday, the environment secretary, who was a key figure in the winning Vote Leave campaign, said that if it had been left entirely to him the leave campaign “would have [had] a slightly different feel”.

During the campaign Gove claimed that Turkey and four other countries could join the EU as soon as 2020, and their accession could lead to 5.2 million extra people moving to the UK by 2030 under free movement.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/michael-gove-admits-leave-was-wrong-to-fuel-immigration-fears

Thanks MaizieD for your link to the study of the coverage of the EU referendum campaign in the UK press, which confirms that-

"When it comes to the positions adopted by each newspaper scrutinized, 6 out of the 9 newspapers adopted positions consistent with the pro-Leave dominance, with the strongest positions in the Daily Express, followed by the Daily Mail and the Sun. The Daily Mirror had the highest share of pro-Remain articles, followed by the Guardian and the Financial Times.

Regarding the differences in tone between the Leave and Remain arguments in the press, the report highlights that the pro-Remain articles were marked by a focus on the single issue of the economy, adopting a generally very negative tone. In contrast to this, pro-Leave articles adopted a more positive tone, balancing criticism of the status quo with hopeful messages for a pro-Brexit future. Pro-Leave articles did play to fears, notably around migration and sovereignty, but their future-oriented messages were more optimistic."

This is the worry about any future vote. Newspaper readership was such an influential factor and those who use emotional manipulation rather than facts are unlikely to change. The owners of these newspapers are foriegn or tax-exile billionaires who have their own agendas.

Let leavers prove to me and so many others that the risks of leaving are well worthwhile and future generations will thank us.

I'm afraid our resident chief unicorn salesman seems to be absent at the moment

In the more than forty years that Britain has been a member of the Common Market and European Union much has changed that cannot be easily reversed. One of the foregoing would be the way that products are handled, transported and stored. Those changes many believe are these days fundamental to our way of living and are "wrapped up" in what is widely known as "Just in Time "distribution systems"

From the comments made on this forum, I believe there are some who post that do not understand the nature of those "Just in Time delivery systems" (JIT) and how vital they are in our modern economy.

If we take the example of a young parent buying products for the family at a supermarket, that supermarket holds very little stock (if any) of those items. In that, what customers see on the shelves are often the entire stock that the retail outlet is holding. However, as the items are passed through the checkout the sold items are placed on the IT system for replacement on the next scheduled daily delivery.

The above, in what is known as a "call over" is sent by the system to the supermarket's suppliers who at a set time of day/night will load vehicles and send them to the supermarket's distribution centres. At those centres, the vehicles arrive at a set scheduled time,

The Distribution Centre in what is known as a "cross-dock operation", handle the cages or pallets immediately and the supplies are unloaded, sorted to the retail outlets they are assigned to, mixed with other products arriving in the same mannerand reloaded onto vehicles (at times the same vehicles that brought the products in) to be sent to the retail outlets again arriving at a scheduled time for shelf restocking by those stores.

The delivery time is set to be just in front of the time the retail outlet would be running out of stock on the shelves, hence the name " just in time" (JIT).

The above takes place with almost all fast turnover products into retail and many large factory production lines in Britain and across the European Union.

However, anyone can imagine the "chaos" that will ensue should those vehicles carrying products on JIT delivery schedules begin to be delayed for an unknown number of hours at ports while customs checks are made.

I would suggest that the whole JIT transport system would quickly collapse with huge increase costs to consumers in Britain and the loss of many thousands of jobs as producers and suppliers move to EU countries. In that, following Brexit the EU is obviously to be the far larger market as compared to Britain, and where JIT systems will still exist within and between those EU countries.

MaizieD
Having been around academics and 'experts' for some years I can agree that within the scope of their expertise they indeed are expert, however stray away from their quite rigid scope of understanding and their levels of knowlege and common understanding and sense is very often lower than your standard Joe Publc.
I have been in a few of 'how do you manage to exist' scenarios with some supposedly highly intellegent experts.

We can all presume what both staying and leaving the EU will be like in a few years but no one knows with any certainty whether they are expert or idiot.
World diplomacy seems to be getting more and more fragile and social sensibilities are being eroded.

The other thing I've seen pointed out, Varian, though I can't recall if it was in that report, is that the tone of much of the mainstream media had been eurosceptic for quite some time (for years really when you consider all the lies that our Boris amused himself with concocting when reporting on the EU for the Times and the Telegraph) and that Cameron himself was pushing the eurosceptic line before his 'negotiations' with the EU. This made his subsequent wholehearted endorsement of the EU in the referendum campaign seem rather hollow, to say the least.

Having been around academics and 'experts' for some years I can agree that within the scope of their expertise they indeed are expert,

But?

Do we have to discount what they say because you think they're in ivory towers and not connected to real life? Is that what you're saying?

Do they not buy things, have homes and families, have outside interests and enthusiasms, travel, take holidays etc. Is their life experience somehow less valid than anyone else's because they're academics or experts and so their expertise is not to be trusted?

Very odd argument.

Grandad1943
Whilst we import food from the EU, we also import large amounts from worldwide which are sourced on a JIT basis. Indeed much of the food produced here uses the same methodology.
I get the feeling from your posts that you think that the EU will pull up the drawbridge come Brexit day and JIT food deliveries will cease and we will all starve. Now that would be a bit of 'cut off your nose to spite your face' scenario wouldnt it.
The poorer African countries such as the verdant Kenya or the Levant states such as Lebanon would be very keen to supply direct to UK with direct flights JIT is just as feasible.
With regard to manufacturing, whilst some may relocate to the EU, there could be as many that will repatriate their outsourced production. Manufacturing costs are already rising within the major Eastern European manufacturing bloc. Add to this transportation costs and Environmental impact and JIT service facilities based nearer to end of line production facilities become attractive again and aid employment. This is what we should be agitating for.

From the comments made on this forum, I believe there are some who post that do not understand the nature of those "Just in Time delivery systems" (JIT) and how vital they are in our modern economy.

I know what you're talking about, Grandad; my DP was a transport manager at a senior level.

I wonder if people are also aware that the EU has quotas for third country lorries within the Single Market.

The FTA has this to say:

“The customs White Paper is also silent on the need to agree a quota with the EU over the number of trucks that will be permitted to travel between the UK and the EU after Brexit. This is currently unlimited, but the automatic right to send a truck abroad will end upon Brexit. There is also a need to agree to continue to recognise the licences and qualifications of the drivers driving them.

automotivesupplychain.org/supply-chain/uk-freight-transport-association-issues-no-deal-brexit-checklist/

(So no deal = no UK transport allowed in mainland Europe until such time as all this can be negotiated. And it can't be negotiated until the UK is a third country)

The poorer African countries such as the verdant Kenya or the Levant states such as Lebanon would be very keen to supply direct to UK with direct flights JIT is just as feasible.

And let's not care at all about the environmental impact of all these extra flights..

Of course, that's if our airports are still open...

^ there could be as many that will repatriate their outsourced production. ^

I think the components manufacturers in the NE who supply Nissan might be a bit puzzled by this idea that components are all produced in other parts of the EU. As several thousand jobs up here rely on this industry I'm puzzled by the idea...

MaizieD
No, but are there any true Brexit experts? Anyone who hand on heart with absolute certainty can say this will or will not happen.If there is such a person then i am with them.
What we do know is that EU is bankrupt. EU wants UK to stay as its 3rd biggest contributor.
Poorer EU nations will get fewer subsidies and will be asked to contribute more if UK leaves and this does not please them.

This man is an expert, and surely you can see that he knows more about customs procedures than any of us.

"HMRC chief Jon Thompson has defended his £20bn estimate of the cost to businesses of the post-Brexit customs system favoured by leading Brexiteers.

He told MPs that a technology-based system - dubbed the "max fac" solution - would cost businesses a similar amount to leaving the EU with no deal.

Mr Thompson said the high frequency of transactions meant firms would still have to fill in customs declarations."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44372011

MaizieD
How many trucks can you fit in a plane? The volume that can be transported is vast compared to the continental waggons clogging our motorways. We already freight in and out vast amounts of food and goods by air. I think you will find the environmental impact is lower.
Why shouldnt our airports remain open?
With regard to Nissan and other car manufacuters, actually many cars and car parts are now made in India and China, and are just rebranded to suit the 'usual' well known badges. A little search can be quite enlightening.
It is Grandad who seems to think that all UK industry is dependant on JIT component deliveries from EU.

Joelsnan, no one is suggesting that Britain will starve if JIT delivery systems come to an end due to Brexit. However, large storage facilities would have to be set up to compensate for not knowing what time or even what day consignments would arrive into distribution centres or production lines.

Along with the above many extra heavy vehicles would have to be purchased and brought onto UK roads to compensate for all those being held up at the ports, distribution centres and production plants. All the foregoing will have to be paid for and that can only come from Britain's consumers in much higher prices they pay for their purchases.

In regard to countries on the African continent etc becoming major suppliers to the UK. In that Britain will have to ensure that such things as animal welfare are assured to levels acceptable to blocs such as the EU. Failure to ensure those conditions may well bring about a complete ban on large amounts of food products from Britain to the EU and other trading blocs.

varian i heard this broadcast on radio 4 and it was immediately refuted by at least one business person who exports both within the EU and Worldwide.
This is HMRC who spent millions and millions on an IT system that could never be used, mmm...

I am not surprised that the BBC found someone to refute the expert opinion of the head of HMRC. During the EU referendum campaign and since, the BBC has always in the name of "balance" had to find someone (anyone will do) to refute the opinion of any expert.

Most of the experts were on the Remain side and those who were given an equal billing to speak for Leave were often fantasists. But no matter, the BBC is supposed to be neutral.

We look forward to the next debate on BBC about whether the Earth is flat or spherical.

MaizieD, the idea of vast numbers of commercial trucks be transported on aircraft is quite frankly ridiculous. Also in case you had not noticed at the end of the flight those trucks would still have to come off those aircraft and driven to there destinations on Britains roads.

So, where would be the reduction in the number of trucks on our roads you believe would occur.

Usual Brexitier nonsense. fingers in ears, head in the sand, and let's all jump of the cliff and hope for a soft landing not knowing how that might come about.

Totally Ridiculous

MaizieD, the idea of vast numbers of commercial trucks be transported on aircraft is quite frankly ridiculous. Also in case you had not noticed at the end of the flight those trucks would still have to come off those aircraft and driven to there destinations on Britains roads.

Err, it wasn't me, Grandad*. It was Joelsnan and, to be fair, I think she was referring to truckload equivalents rather than actual trucks.

I wonder what the pollutionary trail of an aircraft is compared with the number of trucks needed to transport an equivalent load. Off to google now...

Apologies MaizieD trying to multi-task here and obviously getting too old for that.

MaizieD, even if those aircraft are loaded directly with cargo not the trucks, at the end of the flight that cargo still has to be loaded on to trucks for delivery. Therefore the same number of trucks will be on Britains roads as of now.

Air transport does play a large role in the UK's perishable goods transport, but it is far more expensive than the whole operation being carried out by one heavy road vehicle being loaded and then being utilised for the entire journey.

The above is how at present much perishable produce is moved from the EU to Britain and vice-versa.

grandad1943 Lets keep it polite.
I could quite easily say the same about you.
You do appear typically averse to change and unable to explore anything outside your sphere if understanding i.e. Transport within EU.
With regard to cost of road to air freighting. How many truck loads of product does it take to fill a plane? What would be the total cost of transporting the eqivalent plane load of goods by plane and road including all ancilliary costs, manpower etc. Then include the product purchase price and then we might have a comparison.
As you say we already have a very large import/export if food and goods via air it must be worthwhile for some.
Anyway, we should buy British and resolve all of these issues.

This is HMRC who spent millions and millions on an IT system that could never be used, mmm...

Not quite sure what this has to do with HMRC calculating the cost of customs declarations. IT procurement is a completely different thing (and the UK is notoriously bad at it)

Taking account of numerous caveats, he cited a range between £20 and £55 per declaration and said HMRC had come up with a working figure for ministers of £32.50 for each one.

It is based on what officials know of the costs businesses actually face today, but HMRC has not revealed its precise methodology.

Andrew Grainger, a trade facilitation expert and the author of the University of Nottingham study, suggested HMRC's estimate was not unreasonable:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44238226

Anyway, we should buy British and resolve all of these issues.

I'm sure our trading partners would love that.