Brexit

Whichever way Brexit eventually plays out, serious and irreparable damage has been done to Britain.

In terms of lasting reputational damage, it’s hard to find comparison in our modern history. The Suez crisis of 1956 comes closest. Britain and France’s botched attempt to depose Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser and regain control of the Suez Canal resulted in open humiliation as we were forced to pull out under pressure from the United States and United Nations. The Suez Crisis was seen as the end of empire. The end of Britain’s hard power.

Now we see the coming end of our soft power - the disproportionate influence this small island wields globally, our ability to shape events either to our interests, or in the pursuit of some greater goal. That’s all but gone now.

www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/brexit-serious-damage-to-britain

Spot on varian. I still find it strange that relatively few saw the border issue as vitally important - whether they understood the implications or simply didn't see it as a priority.
It's almost as if it came out of the blue while those of us who were actually concerned about, saw it as one of the many reasons to vote remain!

The EU has proposed a backstop plan that would see Northern Ireland in effect remain in the customs union and single market, therefore removing the need for border checks – but the UK government says any arrangement gives the region a different status to the rest of the country is unacceptable.

Instead, ministers have suggested a "customs arrangement" that would see the whole UK adopt the same tariffs as the EU for a time-limited period until a longer-term agreement is reached. But Brussels said this amounted to "cherry-picking" and has made clear it will not accept a backstop that is time-limited.

The issue has become one the the main sticking points during negotiations. A deal is needed by October to ensure the European Parliament and member states have enough time to ratify it before the UK leaves the bloc next March.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-barnier-border-ireland-urgency-latest-october-raab-a8516606.html

It has always been pretty clear that there is either a hard border re-instated on the island of Ireland, undoing the work of the Good Friday Agreement, which no-one wants, or a border in the Irish Sea between NI and Great Britain which is unacceptable to most in the UK, particularly the DUP, who control TM or no border, which can really only be possible if the UK remains in the EU.

Even though the brexiters shouted a lot about "take back control of our borders" this was never properly spelled out and a lot of Leave voters never gave a thought to the Irish question. However many of us did realise this was an insoluble problem before the referendum which was why we voted Remain.

Did anybody catch the latest news conference from Barnier and Raab a few minutes ago? It was on Sky News but the BBC did not show it live.

It is looking a little more promising when Barnier says :

The EU is prepared to build an ambitious partnership with the Uniuted Kingdom "

They covered various subjects and whatever side of the argument you fall on it may hold some answers to the questions that have been ongoing , daily for 2 years now.

the garden of England turned into a lorry park
Well, it was the garden of England before conformity took hold.

In fact, Kent is surprisingly rural and beautiful. Only the area around the Channel Ports is less so.

Or should stay more or less the same?

Compromise is what we already have being in the EU. So are you now saying that we are leaving but will more or less stay the same ?

Shortages of medicine; the garden of England turned into a lorry park; a surge in red-tape; new tariffs on cars and food; factories halted for lack of parts. Those are the grim scenarios conjured up by planning for a “ no-deal Brexit”. Who in the world would volunteer for that kind of chaos? Quite a few people, as it happens.

There are hardline Brexiters who regard the British government’s current proposals for Brexit as a betrayal — and so would prefer no deal. There are ardent Remainers who hope that the spectre of no deal could provoke a political crisis that stops Brexit altogether. And there is the European Commission, which sees no deal as preferable to compromising on the basic principles of the single market.

Together, these three groups could lead the UK and the EU into no-deal territory. But they are all deluded in their own way. In their refusal to compromise they risk jointly unleashing a dangerous crisis, whose endgame they can neither predict nor control.

www.ft.com/content/29aaa45a-a9d0-11e8-94bd-cba20d67390c

No deal is often better than a bad deal. Not with Brexit

www.economist.com/leaders/2018/08/02/no-deal-is-often-better-than-a-bad-deal-not-with-brexit

James O’Brien Highlights The Big Flaw In Brexiteer’s Immigration Argument

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-highlights-flaw-brexit-immigration/

Yes, the referendum was very much about immigration. Now we find that Britain very much requires many of those immigrant skills, so another fallacy of the leave campaign is exposed for what it is

Probably more warehousing being built at the ports too.

But, unfortunately:

As government publishes its ‘prospectus’ for a no-deal Brexit, real world stats released by the ONS today (August 23) show how hard constriction has been hit by a fall in vital EU workers.

And that, warns the Federation of Master Builders (FMB), impacts on the sector’s ability to come close to – let alone achieve – government housebuilding targets.

The stats show EU net migration is now at its lowest level since 2012, and that, Sarah McMonagle, Director of External Affairs at the FMB, should be “deeply worrying” for those sectors that rely on EU workers – especially construction.

www.24housing.co.uk/news/eu-migration-drop-deeply-worrying-for-house-building/

And no doubt deeply worrying for warehouse construction too.

Probably more warehousing being built at the ports too.

More civil service jobs too, to administer all the new systems.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-staff-numbers-new-hmrc-jobs-employ-david-davis-a8030281.html

Well, as the old adage states "its an ill wind that blows no one any good". In that, one of our clients has told an Assignment controller of our company that should they have to replace their warehouse Cross Dock operation with a much higher manual handling operation because of Brexit, then a large amount of work will be coming our way in setting up the safety regime for that.

Of coarse, the above has to be paid for and that in the end will have to come from the consumers of those products handled in that operation.

Still an ill wind that may yet benefit our company at least.

The Mail online says if there’s no deal:

Elderly UK expats could see pensions stopped under 'no deal' Brexit, government warns
Annuities that provide regular pension income are among products which expats could struggle to receive

What about us grans who aren’t “elderly” Daily Mail?

Don't worry, Grandad, we'll just break some of those Brexit unicorns in to harness...

So, the government "technical notes" for the possibility of a "no deal" Brexit have been released. They certainly do not make pleasant reading for those that believed Brexit could be accomplished with "the easiest negotiations ever concluded" to use the words of David Davis

I believe the section of the briefings that would affect all who reside in the UK would be that which addresses company need to fill out customs declarations for goods entering the UK from the EU. It states, Organizations should think about whether they should, “engage the services of a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to help. Alternatively, they should secure the appropriate software and authorisations”.

The above would bring to the British Road Haulage Industry a level of bureaucracy not seen since the 1980s when the number of heavy vehicles directly travelling between the UK and Europe was far lower as compared to today.

To use one scenario as an example, all the above paperwork will have to be checked against the seal on the vehicle at the ports. As the time delay at the port for that check would be unknown, any Just in time delivery schedules (JIT) would be unworkable.

In the above, distribution centre "Cross Dock operations" which work in close conjunction with those JIT schedules would also be unworkable and huge amount extra warehouse space would be required to accommodate previous older type handling operations which will bring forward substantial additional costs.

The above is in my view just one of the problems of a "no customs agreement Brexit". There is also the problem of the building the thousands of extra HGV trailers required to carry out the same amount of Haulage as now, along with the additional power units required to haul those trailers. Along with that, there is also the problem of finding all the additional warehousing requirements for the same.

However, between now and Brexit day, there is always the possibility that a customs agreement could be concluded at any point. In that, no Haulage or distribution company will purchase any of the above vehicles or warehousing while that possibility exists. For who would wish to have all that equipment and storage on their hands and no work for it.

Or alternatively:
newsthump.com/2018/08/23/uk-governments-no-deal-brexit-advice-an-exclusive-preview/

The Government tells drug companies to stockpile six weeks worth of medicine on top of normal stocks, in case of a no deal scenario.

The Health Secretary warned that this would be a massive challenge for the industry.

I wonder why there hasn’t been more warning of all this. Six months isn’t much time for the industry to start stockpiling. Should people who rely on regular prescriptions be advised start their own stockpiles too? Or will that just make potential shortages worse?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-medicine-stockpile-health-secretary-matt-hancock-nhs-prescriptions-a8504806.html

Yes, mostly harmless - well spotted by you. I also saw this and it's so obvious that all this extra bureaucracy will result in everything being more expensive, as all these costs will be passed on to us, the consumer. What a mess!!!!

More Government warnings of problems no deal would create:

Meanwhile, businesses are warned that if we leave without a deal, “the free circulation of goods between the UK and EU would cease”.

Firms would need to fill out customs declarations for goods entering the UK from the EU – and should think about whether they should, “engage the services of a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to help, or alternatively secure the appropriate software and authorisations”.

Government warnings about no-deal Brexit today:

Consumers would face slower and more costly credit card payments when they buy EU products, and British citizens living abroad could lose access to their bank accounts, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the government has warned

If I were a Labour Party Member, or even a Labour Party voter, I would be utterly horrified by the evasiveness and cowardice of Jeremy Corbyn, who claimed to have voted Remain. Did he? If he did, what has he learned in the last two years to convince him that brexit-at-any-cost is the way to go???

www.facebook.com/libdems/videos/266714907496866/

So many lies were told by the leave campaign, but every now and again, one of the brexiters is forced to tell the truth.