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I predict.....

(466 Posts)
Anja Fri 07-Dec-18 13:04:07

Theresa May will lose the vote on Tuesday.

Do you agree?

And then what will happen next........let’s see whose prediction is the closest. Perhaps let this thread run about 2 weeks and see who got it right, or nearly right.

Declare a winner just before Christmas.

Over to you ?

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 14:27:55

My 14:24 post is to Jalima1108

Jalima1108 Sun 09-Dec-18 14:26:41

Grandad last year we stood on the White Cliffs of Dover watching in amazement as one after another rolled in!

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 14:24:28

Really? Do you keep tabs on all the GNers who post or only on a select few. Am I archived or in the 'out' tray?
I 'erroneously it seems' thought that it was all about the subject matter/ thread and not about cross referencing the background of the posters.
Do correct me if I'm wrong in that assumption.
If there is anything in your compilation of my comments on GN which gives rise to a ? in your mind, do ask and I'll be happy to set the record straight. grin

Grandad1943 Sun 09-Dec-18 14:02:13

They would Jalima1108, as Immingham would eventually hope that more freight would come through that port in containers, which may EVENTUALLY happen.

However, at present 44% of Britains food arrives into the UK through the roll on roll off (Ro-Ro) ports. In that, a truck passes through Dover every forty seconds.

The above could be what is known as "food for thought", pun intended. grin

Jalima1108 Sun 09-Dec-18 13:40:17

Thanks Grandad
I confess I am not very au fait with these things, but I thought the people from the Port of Immingham seemed very confident about the future.

nigglynellie Sun 09-Dec-18 12:39:18

Thanks oldbatty, Now that is a genuine relief, and this 'person' can now be ignored!!

Grandad1943 Sun 09-Dec-18 12:37:40

Jalima1108, the concern is in regard to the roll on roll of ports, not those that deal with containers in the bulk of their operations.

Jalima1108 Sun 09-Dec-18 12:37:18

I know a bloke in Widnes and he is very nice smile

Granny23 Sun 09-Dec-18 12:36:52

That oldbatty is an insult to all the blokes in Widnes grin

Ilovecheese Sun 09-Dec-18 12:22:52

I predict that Esther McVey will make a bid for the Tory leadership if Mrs May loses the vote on her deal.

oldbatty Sun 09-Dec-18 12:22:42

GG, is in fact a bloke from Widnes.

Jalima1108 Sun 09-Dec-18 12:03:30

Grandad I saw something recently on the tv (I can't remember which programme now) where the interviewer visited Immingham and the people in charge of Immingham Port were very confident that they are well prepared for all eventualities come Brexit. They didn't understand why there is such concentration on Dover when there are other possible ports which are geared up and ready.

Jalima1108 Sun 09-Dec-18 12:00:39

I find you an enigma GabriellaG - some of the facts you have told us about your life are contradictory.

nigglynellie Sun 09-Dec-18 11:57:30

Well, the knowledge that nothing unfortunate , even regarding your health can possibly affect you under any circumstances GG is, I'm sure an enormous relief for all of us on this thread. However your obvious lack of empathy never mind sympathy for those less fortunate that yourself is truly astonishing and something that has left me shaking my head in disbelief! Are you trying to wind us up? or do you truly believe what you have stated? If it's the latter then I actually feel sorry for you.

Grandad1943 Sun 09-Dec-18 11:31:52

MaizieD, I believe that the EU commission would come severe pressure from member states in the week's following a no-deal brexit if it was seen that Britain is still freely trading with the EU while not being a member. Anyone of those 27 member states could quote the above, and demand that tariffs be introduced on trade goods coming from the United Kingdom.

Therefore, I do believe that free movement through the ports would eventually be terminated and checks on HGV vehicles would commence bringing about the predicted "chaos" in those ports. However, if what those in the road haulage industry are observing is correct, then it may be several weeks if not one or two months before those checks are introduced, giving Britain at least a breathing space to try and resolve the situation.

However, I do agree with the hauliers that panic buying could be the biggest threat to stability in Britain in the week's running up to the 29th of March

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 11:29:09

Elegran
None of the instances you mentioned apply, nor would they. I'm retired, my pension is safe, my AC and GC are all working and very solvent, my health is excellent (not and never have been on any meds or needing any aids for walking, seeing, hearing) no criminality/habits in my or wider family and I have very healthy bank accounts, no debt and a reasonably wealthy ex with whom I get on well.
At 73, I can't see anything changing bar me getting older, as indeed we are from birth.
Thank you for reminding me that I may need benefits at some time but, apart from the winter fuel allowance and bus pass which are available to all oldies like me, I can say with some certainty, that I will never need any state help...thank goodness. I'm grateful for all I have. smile

MaizieD Sun 09-Dec-18 11:16:49

However, there are now many in the Road Haulage industry who are beginning to believe that should Britain "crash out" of the EU on the 29th March then free movement through the ports would continue in the weeks that follow.

A smugglers' and counterfeiters' charter, then, Grandad?

Anja Sun 09-Dec-18 11:16:01

No problem MaizieD

MaizieD Sun 09-Dec-18 11:12:48

quizqueen, I googled Ruth Lea and the article that seemed to be prominent was this one (or variations of it) It's rather old, but is it the one you're referring to? If it isn't, would you give us a link, please?

www.arbuthnotgroup.com/upload/marketmatter/documents/16th_january_2017.pdf

Here's a rather robust critique from Pete North (a committed Leaver)

peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2016/02/ruth-lea-couldnt-be-more-wrong-if-she.html

No raised blood pressure, GG, just sad that there are people around who think like you. Hopefully, a minority.

Sorry to derail your thread, Anja ; it's been a good and interesting one.

Elegran Sun 09-Dec-18 10:58:54

You're all right then Jack?

My blood pressure is fine, Gabriella (I have the pills to keep it level) , but if you should hit bad times (illness, disability, redundancy, bankruptcy of your employer or pension provider, mental illness alcoholism or criminality in your close family, hackers removing your savings) and are left with no money, I am sure you will reject any benefits that may be ofered to you. after all, you won't want to rely on the cushy system, will you?

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 10:47:27

Form an orderly queue. grin

Jane10 Sun 09-Dec-18 10:38:50

I'm with Granny23 in finding the comment regarding benefits claimants offensive (as well as extremely ill informed) angry

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 10:34:05

It appears that the largest threat to our stocks of food in the run up to B day, is the GBP... those who count themselves as level-headed, not greedy, sharing and caring of their fellow (wo)men. I wonder how many UK residents will shop without overbuying? Will you? I certainly won't.
Decades ago, I remember a sugar shortage and a next door neighbour bought dozens and dozens of the largest packets from as many shops as possible.
The funny thing was that I knew them well enough to know that none of the family used sugar, in or on anything. It's a certain mentality that prompts people to act selfishly. hmm

Grandad1943 Sun 09-Dec-18 10:17:55

I will no try to give an opinion on what is likely to happen over the next three months as there are several scenarios that may come about.

However, there are now many in the Road Haulage industry who are beginning to believe that should Britain "crash out" of the EU on the 29th March then free movement through the ports would continue in the weeks that follow.

Logistics managers in the industry are basing the above on the observations that at the present time no preparations for the large-scale stopping and checking of trucks are taking place. As one of the large distribution company executives advised only last week " it is almost as if everyone cannot bring themselves to believe that this situation may actually happen and therefore nothing is happening".

Of course, the above could change as the weeks roll on and the Brexit date gets ever nearer. However, to set up the infrastructure required on the European side of the Channel will take a considerable period of time and that may well rule out anything happening on the 30th of March.

However, what the Distribution companies do firmly believe it would seem, is that the largest threat to the supply chains if it appears that Britain will "crash out" on the 29th March is panic buying in the weeks leading up to that date.

GabriellaG Sun 09-Dec-18 10:16:25

Not naming the others who instigated the diversion?