BREXIT: Planning for No Deal.

ps but I wouldn't go out after the curfew if I were you

I do not recall the leave campaign leaders ever stating that the army would need to be brought to standby for any requirement during their campaign.

I recall that there would be millions extra for the NHS and that the EU would join us to bring about the "easiest trade negotiations ever concluded" according to David Davis.

Oh, and there that bit stated that nations outside the EU would be falling over themselves to sign trade deals with GREAT Britain. However as stated, I cannot recall anyone saying that the army reservists would have to be brought to standby for any reason, least of all to bring all that "milk & honey" into being.

Troops on the streets to control riots due to not complying with the refereredum was quite likely a quip thrown out by Boris, it sounds his style. A few months ago that would have seemed unthinkable, now I'm not so sure and the longer MPs prevaricate the worse it will get.

It's clear that the man and woman in the street is thoroughly fed up with Brexit and wants it to end, they blame the EU and want out. Another couple of months and there may well be serious disorder, just like France it's a fine line between a demonstration and a riot.

I wonder how the people in NI react to troops on their streets again due to Brexit which their population didn’t want. No deal Brexit would mean tearing up the Good Friday Agreement - we weren’t promised that. Despite all the denials from Leavers - police figures show 1500 reported Brexit related hate crimes directed at foreign nationals. That’s just the reported ones.

Just as balance to some earlier comments on this thread:

The Guardian's chief economic commentator Larry Elliott observed a fortnight ago: 'Britain's debate on Brexit currently seems based on three propositions. That continental Europe is thriving; that Europe's politicians will come under no pressure to cut a deal from their big companies; and that Britain is well adrift at the bottom of Europe's economic league table. All three are false.’

This is the opinion of Jay Rayner:

"I feel bitching from the sidelines isn’t constructive so here’s my Norway Plus option: customs union, single market, free movement, pay in to budget, abide by regs BUT crucially, also have say over those regs. But instead of calling it Norway Plus we call it membership of the EU."

I doubt he is anymore qualified than the rest of us but it about sums it up.

He had his mother's no nonsense attitude! As you say he is as qualified as any one else to comment!

The Guardian's chief economic commentator Larry Elliott observed a fortnight ago:

Care to provide a link to that, Urmsongran? He writes rather a lot of articles.

No need to worry about a no deal brexit. No need to worry about the cost. We can just print off some of the new money.

bathforeurope.com/about-us/

The alarming forecasts of the damage to our economy by the Treasury have been dismissed by brexiters as "just guesswork", "scaremongering" and "fake news", but a study by academic economists at the LSE found that-

"Forecasting the economic consequences of Brexit is a difficult challenge and all estimates will be subject to a degree of uncertainty. But our overall assessment is that the Treasury Report is a credible analysis, which, for the most part, uses the best available estimation methods. Our
main criticism is that they have taken overly cautious assumptions which will tend to underestimate the economic costs of Brexit.

Their headline forecast that Brexit would reduce long-run UK GDP by 6.2% in the baseline case is broadly consistent with our previous work and many other independent estimates. For example, in Dhingra et al (2016a), our dynamic estimates of the cost of Brexit indicate a GDP
loss of 6.3% to 9.5% in the case of moving from the EU to EFTA (see Annex B). Treasury estimates are at the lower end of this range.

The Treasury’s findings reinforce the academic and business consensus that Brexit would make the UK significantly poorer. The Report is a serious contribution to the debate."

cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit04.pdf

Thanks for that varian, very worrying. You can expect to get posts about the fallibility of experts now.

I have looked at all the information available to check that I still believe we would be better off in the EU than out of it and I will continue to monitor it. I do find some reasons for leaving to be irrelevant and would hope that those who give those reasons would do their research. The worrying 'reasons' include but are not limited to:

Straight bananas
Drunken EU leaders
Leave means Leave
All politicians lie so ignore them
Get over it
Don't like David Cameron
We won the war
EU economy is going down
We can get better deals outside the EU
Stop immigration
We were better off before we joined the EU
Don't trust experts
and so on.

IMF has upgraded U.K. Growth forecast post Brexit, they predict that U.K. Will be the fastest growing European G7 Country after Brexit.

1. USA
2. Canada
3. UK
4. France
5. Germany
6. Japan
7. Italy

Here is an accurate report of IMF forecasts-

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for UK growth for 2019, the year of Brexit, while much of the rest of the G7 have been upgraded on the back of a strengthening global economy.

In its latest forecast, the IMF projects growth for Britain of 1.5 per cent next year, down from 1.6 per cent previously.

The UK is set to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019.

IMF tells Brexiteers: The experts were right, Brexit is hurting UK

UK growth outlook slashed by IMF due to weak pound and inflation

IMF downgrades UK’s economic growth forecast to 1.7%
In contrast with the UK downgrade, the US outlook for 2019 is upgraded from 1.9 per cent to 2.5 per cent, Germany from 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent and Canada from 1.7 per cent to 2 per cent.

The IMF’s UK forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 1.8 per cent.

But forecast growth for the US, Germany, France, Italy and Japan are all pushed upwards this year as global growth is seen hitting 3.9 per cent, the most rapid since the 4.2 per cent expansion in 2011.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economic-growth-imf-forecast-brexit-leave-eu-g7-international-monetary-fund-a8172231.html

varian can I add not backing up statements to my list? What hope is there?

Sorry, I mistakenly posted last year's IMF forecasts. Here is this year's_

The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth outlook and turned up the volume of its warnings about the negative impact of Donald Trump’s trade war and a no-deal Brexit.

On Monday the multilateral body, whose managing director is Christine Lagarde, reduced its world GDP expansion outlook for 2019 to 3.5 per cent, down from the 3.7 per cent it pencilled in only in October.

It also shaved its 2020 forecast from 3.7 per cent to 3.6 per cent.

“The main shared policy priority is for countries to resolve co-operatively and quickly their trade disagreements and the resulting policy uncertainty, rather than raising harmful barriers further and destabilising an already slowing global economy,” the IMF wrote in its updated World Economic Outlook.

It also warned about the potential impact of the UK leaving the European Union with no deal.

“A range of triggers beyond escalating trade tensions could spark a further deterioration in risk sentiment with adverse growth implications, especially given the high levels of public and private debt,” it said.

What will happen to the global economy in the next 12 months?“ These potential triggers include a no-deal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and a greater-than-envisaged slowdown in China”.

Separately on Monday China reported its weakest annual growth in 2018 since 1990 at 6.6 per cent.

The IMF is forecasting China’s growth rate to slip to just 6.2 per cent in 2019 and 2020.

In November, the IMF warned that the UK economy could face a long-run hit of up to 8 per cent of GDP in the event of a no-deal Brexit

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/imf-world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-trade-war-trump-china-us-finance-a8738656.html

Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, warned the UK to avoid crashing out of the EU or risk a 5% to 8% reduction in GDP “over times”.

She said: “Our forecasts incorporate a smooth transition and if there is a decision to leave without a deal or further uncertainty, both scenarios would lead to a downgrade.

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/21/imf-brexit-trump-trade-war-china-world-economic-outlook

The details I posted are on the Internet, I haven’t the time to cut and paste lengthy articles, as I am far too busy in real life.

Not sure where GrannyGravy13 gets her statistics from in regard to Britain to be the fastest growing economy in Europe in the next twelve months, but that claim seems to run counter to all other forecasts at present.

Below is a link to a Sky News report in connection with a British Border force document that advises the government that cross channel trade could be reduced by up to 87% in the first six months of Brexit if Britain leaves on a "no deal" scenario.

news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-trade-could-drop-by-87-govt-document-warns-11614002">Cross-Channel freight trade 'could drop by 87%' under 'no-deal' Brexit</a>

Apologies the above link seems not to be working. Please try this one.

news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-trade-could-drop-by-87-govt-document-warns-11614002

Jess Philips says "Backing a People's Vote is the Feminist Thing to Do: labourlist.org/2019/01/jess-phillips-backing-a-peoples-vote-is-the-feminist-thing-to-do/?fbclid=IwAR0lE4snklTtTH_2eXH16eJDtr40MMK81KDQN7avpRDZUQY3kv1uEvDxd74

I find her very irritating but some might not.

There are several MP’s on social media quoting the same figures from the IMF that I posted at 13.13 today!!!

Can you post the links to those making those statements then GrannyGravy13?

Today in the business section of the Irish Times.
Among major economies, the deepest revision was for Germany, which the imf now sees expanding 1.3% this year
If my maths are correct that makes germanys forecast lower than ours.

Cannot post links I am on iPhone and it doesn’t want to play I am afraid.

GrannyGravy13.