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News on the economy

(7 Posts)
Nonnie Wed 30-Oct-19 09:39:01

I have just read this, thought about adding it to one of the Brexit threads but hope more people will see it if I start a new one. Going to cost us £70 billion and 3.5% of GDP. I have read worse forecasts but if the BBC (Brexit BC) report it I think we should believe it.

Gaunt47 Wed 30-Oct-19 09:44:45

Just wondering how on earth stats like these are computed, when nobody knows if or when, or under what terms we might or might not leave the UK?

growstuff Wed 30-Oct-19 09:52:13

That's why people study economics and mathematical models. It's not too difficult to analyse past trends and predict the future with some degree of accuracy. It's not too difficult to predict the economic effect of Brexit either.

Unfortunately, no economist can foresee unpredictable circumstances, such as, for example, Trump being impeached or an alien invasion or Putin being assassinated or …………..

Nonnie Wed 30-Oct-19 09:53:33

In the same way that all financial matter are calculated, years of study and experience. I don't know how to calculate how far away a star is or how old a dinosaur but I accept that others do. Did you notice the £ dropped by 20%? That is based on what the markets predict is happening/has happened to the UK

Gaunt47 Wed 30-Oct-19 11:35:34

Yes, Growstuff and Nonnie, but what bothers me is where do these calculations originate? There are countless variables and the starting point could well be based on the desired outcome or the views of whoever is commissioning the research.
However I'm a complete Luddite so I'lll just quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

growstuff Wed 30-Oct-19 11:56:14

My daughter has a degree in Economics. I'll ask her, but I suspect I won't understand her reply.

Nonnie Wed 30-Oct-19 13:26:21

Gaunt I think we can only decide whether we believe these things or not by deciding if we think they come from a reputable source. I think this does. If it had come from anyone behind vote leave or vote remain I would not have felt confident.