Is the polling correct?

Thank you GracesGranMK3 for taking the time and trouble to provide such a meticulous examination of opinion poll raw data. It was very instructive - both for what your analysis revealed and for the flaws it exposed.

It is no wonder that opinion polls are so unreliable when some of those involved in conducting them believe that sample selection is an 'art'. Art: human creative skill or its application...…..creative activity concerned with the production of imaginative designs...
The fundamental tenet of sample selection, as with all other aspects of research in the physical, life and social sciences, is objectivity and systematic observation. Granted, samples for opinion polls must be representative, but their selection should still follow objective, scientific principles.

Pseudo intellectual claptrap Jane any of us with a mere A level in Maths can understand statistics....you don’t need ‘advanced qualifications in research methodologies’ ?’

I agree that the 19% Conservative lead ( in the OP) is rubbish.

Even if poll data is skewed, it won’t have any effect on how voters choose on the night ( in fact the vast majority choose their candidate almost from the time the GE is announced.)
Polls are an indicator, nothing more and won’t influence anyone.
Sometimes polls get things wrong ( the referendum) and sometimes although it seems one party is well ahead in the polls, by voting day things have changed.
Put Brexit into the mix and it makes for difficult polling.
On the face of it, the LP are in the best position, not ahead in the polls and unlikely to win on their own, but they can join the Lib Dems ( or form an alliance of some kind) ditto with the SNP.Whilst the Conservatives can’t do either of those things and need a majority, in fact a good majority to do what they need to do.
It’s all down to getting seats in previously LP areas.We won’t truly know how things are until the exit polls.

I don't quite understand what you mean Jane10. If people on here have advanced qualifications in research methodologies and dispute the details in her post, they should do so, rather than make snide remarks.

What may be a science to GG is an art to others. Including those with advanced qualifications in research methodologies, qualitative as well as quantitative.

Sorry, repeated in error.

Sussexborn You complain in response to Gracesgran that "politeness and manners seem to be swept aside."

On this first page, there is reference to "a few gullible folk who will fall for Labour's idiotic spending proposals ......"

You yourself say:

"Oh dear GGMk3! How much time did you spend/waste on your (wo)mansplaining? It must be hard living in this world of wrong thinking morons!"

If you disagree with the analysis Gracesgran posted - and no doubt some will dispute it - why not concentrate on that analysis and point out where you believe it is faulty rather than make sarcastic comments?

As to your comment, based on the experience and opinion of one person, that life is much tougher in Nordic countries than is commonly reported -this extract from an article in the Telegraph in July 2018 relating to research carried out on living standards in various countries of the world:

"As is often the case in such rankings, Scandinavian countries dominate, with Finland leading the charge with an overall score of 90.09 out of 100. It scored highest on nutrition and basic medical care, access to basic knowledge, and personal rights.>...."

>.."Sussexborn You complain in response to Gracesgran that "politeness and manners seem to be swept aside.

On this first page, there is reference to "a few gullible folk who will fall for Labour' idiotic spending proposals ......" and you yourself say:

"Oh dear GGMk3! How much time did you spend/waste on your (wo)mansplaining? It must be hard living in this world of wrong thinking morons!"

If you disagree with the analysis Gracesgran posted, why not concentrate on that analysis and point out where it is faulty rather than make sarcastic comments?

As the comment made by your friend questioning the commonly reported finding that Nordic countries have the highest standard of living - this from The Telegraph in July 2018 re standard of living in various countries:

"As is often the case in such rankings, Scandinavian countries dominate, with Finland leading the charge with an overall score of 90.09 out of 100. It scored highest on nutrition and basic medical care, access to basic knowledge, and personal rights.

...."Others among the top 12 countries showing “very high social progress”, according to the study, were three more Nordic nations (Sweden in sixth place, Norway in seventh ..."

I think most of the parties now have their own polls carried out. The one referred to in the OP was done for the Observer but it seems to have the same issues as the polls for the papers carried out in the last election.

It's not an 'art' Jane10, it's a science but in this Liar's Election who can believe anything.

True. Polls are just part of the story. Opportunities to scaremongery OMG Boris one or the other might get elected. They are of interest to the political parties to assess how the campaigns going and get vote out, or a focus to discuss on the media. I find them interesting but do they influence my vote probably very little.

extreme Leftist party which Labour has become.

Many people won't be voting for an extreme Rightist party headed by a big liar.

Sample selection is an art that several of the polls I've been involved with don't seem to have mastered. I actually withdrew from them as they are just so easy to fool (if one wanted to). Another issue I disliked was the way my responses were funnelled down particular channels depending on who had commissioned the poll. As a result I ignore polls.
Bookies odds are often worth a look though!

That's about as useful as always believing them. You just need to be sure they know what they are doing and are doing it right.

I never believe polls

No Jane they are not. A random sample would have to be huge. This is a small sample, which can give you an accurate answer, but needs to properly reflect an accurate cross section.

The polls are only what people say they are going to do. What they actually do is something else altogether. Do you really think that polls themselves affect outcomes? People aren't that daft.

Tooting29 There is only one poll that counts and that is the one on 12th Dec.

I don't agree. The poll on the 12th can be influenced by headlines saying one or other party is ahead. If these are as massively incorrect as it appears they could be then these are basically more lies heaped on the lies we already have.

Perhaps this will one day be called the liars election in honour of Mr Johnson (and a few people of social media).

We were polled the other day in Liverpool. We blithely informed the young woman that we (all six of us) would be voting for Boris. It must have been clear to her that we were taking the piss, but she ticked her little boxes so she could ‘get polling done’!

PS I did read it despite the patronising comments!

Politeness and manners seem to have been swept aside and I wonder if they will reappear after the 12th! I really hope so.

Oh dear GGMk3! How much time did you spend/waste on your (wo)mansplaining? It must be hard living in this world of wrong thinking morons!

My Nordic friend got a terrible shock when her Mum had a stroke! Life there was far tougher than she had realised from her holiday visits! The reality was far harsher than here and a huge wake up call.

I certainly take polls with a large pinch of salt. As previously stated its the one on 12th December that counts!

There is only one poll that counts and that is the one on 12th Dec. Prediction /forecast is just that an educated guess and not a statement of fact.

Well Jennifer, we both have - because the alternative, with Johnson is absolutely terrifying.

Tories have borrowed 1 trillion in last 9 years- over 100 billion a year. 7.5 times more in 9 years than Labour in all their years in power (33 years in total).

That is your opinion JE - with no reference to any proper figures to back it. If the polls are inaccurate then it is also not true. As this is exactly what happened in the last election then it is totally reasonable to ask the question. If they are making the same mistake it is another lie in favour of the extreme right.

I rather think that calling fellow members "gullible" and suggesting that a party that is not as far to the left as some of, for example, the Nordic countries with their high standard of living just makes you seem even less credible and more "gullible" for swallowing, hook, line, and sinker the lies you have been fed.

Polls or no polls the fact remains that the vast majority of people wouldn’t dream of voting for an extreme Leftist party which Labour has become.

That is a fact.

Of course there will be a few gullible folk who will fall for Labour’s idiotic spending proposals but thankfully they are in the minority.