Can you think of a Prime Minister worse than Johnson?

So at the moment our economic done turn is forecast to be 11.5% - a serious level.

If we eased lockdown too swiftly or without any plan going forward. A place with which this government is very familiar then there is almost certainly going to be a second wave, according to scientists at Kings College.

R is perilously close to 1 in many areas of the country.

When the second wave hits the OECD and BoE forecast that the economy will retract a further % to 14%, and given the fact that Johnson is apparently hell bent on perusing the hardest of Brexit, then we are in for a very rocky time indeed.

More care over the easy of lockdown seems a very attractive prospect at the moment.

I for one will not be following Johnson’s advise, but I have the privilege of not having to.

Digest: June 10 – all the news the Establishment won’t want you to read
As ever, the social media is boiling over with useful information that the Great and the Good don’t want you to know.

Consider:

The Government’s policy on Covid-19 continues to be a fiasco:

I like The Times Cartoon of Johnson. Late for everything.

Take your pick
It's what people are saying.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2020/06/10/digest-june-10-all-the-news-the-establishment-wont-want-you-to-read/

Good post Grandad 1943
We do need to move forward as a country, as you say, hiding away indefinitely is not an option.

^ They've been allowed to think of it as being "released" from confinement (ie some form of punishment) rather than isolation being a necessary part of a strategy.^

Well put growstuff

Britain cannot stay in lockdown indefinitely. Many Businesses have realised that after nearly three months their survival now depends on getting their operations working again for there is no other way forward. In that, innovation and cooperation with all staff and suppliers involved in bringing about those safe reopenings have been outstanding over the last two weeks to the huge credit of all involved.

There is no way of unlocking Britain without risk. However, assessing those risks and reducing them to within reasonable parameters has been outstanding in a great many establishments that are now once more trading again.

Schools, the hospitality and tourist industries will be required to demonstrate that same innovation so as to bring their undertakings back into public use, and that it would seem is sadly lacking in many of those who work within those fields.

We are where we are in terms of this crisis and have to go forward from that perspective. To remain in lockdown with the excuse it is not safe to move forward is not an option that anyone who resides in Britain can sustain into the future.

It's not just about apologising, but about acting now by learning from mistakes.

The virus could be more or less eradicated without vaccine, if we had a strictly enforced lockdown - even now.

Instead of that, Johnson is more concerned about his popularity and keeps throwing out sweeteners to the public. They've been allowed to think of it as being "released" from confinement (ie some form of punishment) rather than isolation being a necessary part of a strategy.

As a result, businesses and children's education are suffering far longer than they need have done - not forgetting the people who have died unnecessarily and others who will have long term health impairment.

I have been watching a video put out by Kings College about the current reaction to covid by the U.K. government.

It was described as primitive and with little sense shown to many of the decisions.

They argued that all countries in Europe and the world have shown better skill at handling the epidemic.

The U.K. has the worst rates both deaths and infection per million population In the world.

I think the answer is to ignore government advise entirely and listen to science.

The French equivalent to our body of medicine are strongly advising vitamin D supplements.

Why can’t this government just admit that they made a mistake? It’s all lies and bluster. We’d have far more respect for them if they apologised for being late with lockdown, not checking incoming travellers, sending sick patients back to care homes, encouraging VE Day celebrations etc

Smileless I don't have the actual figures, but it works like this:

Let's say that on Day 0, there are 100 cases. Left unchecked, the number of infected people doubles every three days, so by Day 3 there are 200 cases.
By Day 6, there are 400 cases; Day 9 800 cases; Day 12 1600 cases; Day 15 3200 cases and so on.

The above is what was happening in the days before lockdown and until the effects worked through the system.

If R=1 (ie one person infects just one other person) there will be 100 cases on Day 0 and 100 cases on Day 15.

However, if the rate of transmission can be reduced, so hardly anybody infects anybody else, the numbers start to look very different, eg

Day 0 100 cases; Day 3 50 cases; Day 6 25 cases; Day 9 12 cases; Day 12 6 cases; Day 15 3 cases.

That can all be worked out mathematically. I don't have the exact data, but the scientists at Imperial College do and can work it out much more accurately.

In my example, it's easy to see that "locking down" makes a huge difference.

Once the number of infected people is manageable, It's possible to deal with them. If necessary, you could put them up in a luxury hotel for a couple of weeks, make sure they have everything they need, compensate them for loss of earnings, etc. They just need to be completely isolated. The virus would disappear because it has no host. It can't continue in the atmosphere for long.

Effectively, that's what New Zealand did and is now reaping the benefit. The UK dithered for too long until the numbers started getting out of control, which is why it's now so painful to return to anything like normal and there will be long term consequences.

Scientists (and others) are worried that we still haven't got the numbers low enough to risk a rise in infection rates. The UK is dithering again. It really does seem that decisions are being made for political reasons and to please voters rather than having a coherent plan to virtually eradicate infection. We have short term gain for long term pain, where it should be the other way round.

On what scientific information is he basing his claim, that had the lock down been introduced a week earlier, the final death toll would have been reduced by half,

Maths, Smileless.

Left unchecked, number of cases rises exponentially. R =2 - 2.5 I believe.

Lockdown cuts contacts, reduces infection rate, fewer infections, -> fewer deaths.

It's not rocket science. That's why lots of us were distancing and isolating earlier.

Matt Hancock also defended the decision. Newmarket is in his constituency, so I'd be surprised if he was totally neutral and objective.

lemongrove The decision to continue with Cheltenham wasn't Johnson's decision (as far as I know). However, Lady Dido Harding, who is now in charge of Test and Trace, almost certainly did have some say in the decision, as she's on the board of the Jockey Club, which is responsible for the Cheltenham Festival.

Smileless2012 The report about lockdown was produced by a team from Imperial College, not just Niall Ferguson, as WWM mentions above. I would suggest that his evidence comes from his research.

No I cant and it's unnervingly reminiscent of the White House press conferences. I read earlier this week that for a week now, no one from the government had been willing to be interviewed by anyone from Channel 4 news. Ch 4 news is the best on tv imo.

iam64 ?

Beth Rigby was muted at Johnson’s press conference today when she attempted to follow up on a question about locking down too late.

Can anyone ever remember a government behaving like this? Ever?

varian - this ordinary old woman and her husband took the same decision, to lockdown on 13 March. So did most of our friends who are in the same age group. Our younger family members were talking seriously about it and already keeping a sensible social distance from us oldies.

whitewave as to the question in your OP. You're right, competence, knowledge, integrity, I can't think of a PM during my lifetime so lacking as the current PM.

Andrew Neil

Tho it’s unlikely to manifest itself at PMQs today, there is mounting unease, even anger, among Tory backbenchers and grassroots at what they perceive as indecisive, even incompetent leadership from Boris Johnson at this stage in the Covid crisis.

EXCL: Channel 4 News has seen a leaked paper prepared for one of the scientific committees advising the government - which called in the starkest possible way for a lockdown - a full two weeKS before Johnson made the decision to lock down.

My OH and I are ordinary old folk, able to read and able to think and so we made the decision to lock ourselves down on 13th March.

The government was privy to better advice and should have closed down the country before that, not ten days later, which cost thousands of lives.

Prof. Neil Ferguson resigned as a member of SAGE because he regrets undermining the continued need for social distancing. His admission came after it was found he broke the rules allowing his lover to visit him at his home during the lock down.

Is he saying that he urged the gov. to introduce lock down measures sooner and was ignored? On what scientific information is he basing his claim, that had the lock down been introduced a week earlier, the final death toll would have been reduced by half, especially as as horrific as the death is thus far, we don't know what the final figure will be?

The Cheltenham Festival was Johnson's responsibilty lemon. A responsible PM would never have let it go ahead at that time.

And now we have the Social Mobility commission report.

Dear oh dear it gets worse and worse.

What IS THIS GOVERNMENT DOING!!

I think you will find that it was Johnson’s doing lemon .

For some reason he decided to delay lockdown by a week resulting in at least 25000 extra deaths

Was that really a serious question varian ? If so, take in the answer, four years to go ( at least).
Does anyone on here worry about the thousands and thousands of cheek by jowl protesters at the weekend , never mind the Cheltenham Festival.That wasn’t of Johnson’s doing after all!

The FT is reporting that we are going for hardest brexit possible! Whatever that is. Time to start stocking up I suppose