Anyone live in Leicester? The lockdown there has been extended.

I think the one thing everyone on here can agree on is that there is more about this virus that we don’t yet know, rather than unequivocal, undisputed facts.

Surely that’s the problem facing all the experts/scientists, as well as of course the government, which for all the criticisms levelled at it, desperately wants to beat this pandemic as much as the rest of us.

Until we get to the stage that the amount we know for certain about the virus vastly outnumbers that which we don’t know, there will always be differing opinions won’t there?

Exactly the opposite.

#wandersoffwomderingwhatplanetimon

Furret

GrannyGravy13

Urmstongran Unfortunately the government don't have a crystal ball

Perhaps one of the GN members could lend them theirs? ?????

Did Churchill have a crystal ball?

I'm not sure why you ask? Churchill made some horrendous mistakes. I do hope you are not expecting Johnson to be another Churchill or I fear you are going to be extremely disappointed.

Alexa

If some viruses mutate so they can colonise more individual hosts then they will colonise more hosts given the hosts can infect each other. Mutation is one of the variables of natural selection, the other variable is struggle for existence. True. it seems a step too far to think of viruses "struggling" that is because it's a bad metaphor.

The key to controlling virus then is to make the hosts less accessible to virus transmission

Exactly! Viruses need a host to be transmitted. They're not strictly speaking alive in the first place. That's why social distancing is critical.

GrannyGravy13

Urmstongran Unfortunately the government don't have a crystal ball

Perhaps one of the GN members could lend them theirs? ?????

Did Churchill have a crystal ball?

Alexa

Growstuff objected:

"I don't think the virus itself does adapt."

Good point.I am not sure now what I meant by what I wrote.
Does virus mutating according to natural selection not affect virus?

Coronavirus has mutated. It's an RNA virus, which tends to be more unstable than a DNA virus. However, it hasn't mutated that much and the mutations haven't made it stronger or weaker - just slightly different.

www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#The-new-coronavirus-is-mutating,-but-very-slowly

PS. Urmstongran Heneghan has some interesting views - I'm still looking up some of his original writing.

MerylStreep

From an Italian Doctor.
^the swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or 2 months ago^

I think the Italian doctors have said they have been seeing a very different scenario from the original one but the one I saw talking about it did point out that the people they were seeing originally were the worst of the worst. They are now hospitalising people who just wouldn't have got a bed originally. Wouldn't this be a possible reason why the people have a lower viral load?

The Italian Dr is Alberto Zangrillo.

GrannyGravy13

Look at the differing opinions between the official SAGE and the so called ^unofficial SAGE^

I think we can say the data is right though GG13 - it is fact. It's the modelling which is less exact.

Perhaps the government have been able to learn from this but in an emergency it's not possible to test a theory. I have never expected them to get it all right; isn't that why they call it a "novel" or previously unrecorded virus? I do expect the government to be prepared though.

From an Italian Doctor.
the swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or 2 months ago

If some viruses mutate so they can colonise more individual hosts then they will colonise more hosts given the hosts can infect each other. Mutation is one of the variables of natural selection, the other variable is struggle for existence. True. it seems a step too far to think of viruses "struggling" that is because it's a bad metaphor.

The key to controlling virus then is to make the hosts less accessible to virus transmission

Growstuff objected:

"I don't think the virus itself does adapt."

Good point.I am not sure now what I meant by what I wrote.
Does virus mutating according to natural selection not affect virus?

Thank you Urmstongran and MerylStreep. I'll look them up.

I read that 2 experts have disagreed. Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Sunetra Gupta.

I had the PHE report in my inbox this morning.

The spike is a puzzle as none of the data indicates any one particular cause or origin.

There has been increased testing since the beginning of June with mobile units drafted in making it easier for people to get a local test. I was one of those contacted by track and trace after a relative tested positive.
So it may be that this level of infection is actually in a lot of areas but not identified.

There is also one little paragraph about the study of infection retrospectively that is going on throughout England. People who have had the virus are asked to recount there previous movements. Of those who responded in Leicester
the majority of them reported that they had only left home for essential shopping.

That should make us all think about what we are doing!

I’ve just remembered the name of the scientist who thinks C-19 is weakening. His name is Professor Carl Heneg(h)an.

GrannyGravy13

Look at the differing opinions between the official SAGE and the so called ^unofficial SAGE^

independent SAGE

They disagree about how the government should respond, but they don't disagree about the fundamentals of the science.

They disagree because the government isn't following the science.

It's a balancing act between the economy and public health. The government is choosing to ignore public health and the science in favour of economic pressures and seeming popular to voters.

Alexa

It seems a good idea to regard the virus as adapting to sporadic outbreaks .

Is it true about Leicester's clothing factories being staffed by underpaid Asian workers who have had to continue working as normal before the pandemic?

I don't think the virus itself does adapt.

Look at the differing opinions between the official SAGE and the so called unofficial SAGE

lemongrove

growstuff

tickingbird

That’s all very well but WHICH experts do we listen to? They don't all agree.

It would be helpful if you could state what they don't agree about and back up the claims.

...and make sure that your essay is clearly typed with no spelling mistakes and always name your quoted sources.
It will be handed back to you later with plenty of red pen corrections.You could be in the classroom for some time.

Well, that was a helpful comment!

lemongrove

It’s certainly the right thing to do ( local lockdowns) because it’s unfair that the whole country should suffer economically and personally, when one area has high numbers of positive cases and the rest doesn’t.
It may have the effect additionally, that people within the lockdown city/area behave more responsibly in future.
Although a lot of the great British public have been sensible, an awful lot haven’t.

But is there any evidence that people have behaved any more irresponsibly than people in other parts of the country? I know some examples have been cited, but that kind of thing (street parties, participation in BLM marches) has happened elsewhere, including the trips to beaches and numerous people who have broken the "rules" on a minor scale.

GrannyGravy13

.growstuff if you had been watching any news programs or reading any newspapers/online articles it is blatantly obvious that there are differing opinions amongst The Scientists on how to manage the Covid-19 pandemic.

To be honest, I've seen a few maverick "alternative" opinions, but I haven't seen any serious disagreement. That's why I asked for some concrete examples.

PS. I don't count drinking bleach as a serious disagreement.

In the case of Leicester, the puzzle is how it's happened. So far, it doesn't appear that gender or ethnicity is relevant. It's certainly nothing to do with men in mosques or flights from Pakistan. People in Leicester don't appear to have been involved in mass gatherings which haven't happened in other parts of the country. I don't think much of his behaviour, but it's nothing to do with the mayor visiting his girlfriend either.

There's a question mark over the role of children at school and people working in factories. There are also questions about the living conditions of the people who have shown to be infected. Only further research and transparent data will answer those questions and provide evidence for a way forward. I expect at that stage various people will disagree about the best way because it will be a balancing act between the economy and public health.

It’s certainly the right thing to do ( local lockdowns) because it’s unfair that the whole country should suffer economically and personally, when one area has high numbers of positive cases and the rest doesn’t.
It may have the effect additionally, that people within the lockdown city/area behave more responsibly in future.
Although a lot of the great British public have been sensible, an awful lot haven’t.

.growstuff if you had been watching any news programs or reading any newspapers/online articles it is blatantly obvious that there are differing opinions amongst The Scientists on how to manage the Covid-19 pandemic.