How confident are you in a good deal for the UK?

The red wall will be rubbing their hands as well, yes a proper Brexit not a Brexit in name only. Fingers crossed. Boris will get an even bigger majority in the next election lol ?

So, if Macron vetoes the deal (or any other country out of the 27) is it No Deal then?

Boris will be rubbing his hands I expect.
A real Brexit.

Just pointing out the fact GG13. We've got used to hearing that being a one-term president is a disastrous outcome because of the US elections, but in France it wouldn't be such an unusual thing.

I'm sure his enormous ego would be hurt if he failed to be re-elected - and I'm sure the same could be said of almost any elected politician!

Alegrias it’s just my opinion, I think his enormous ego would be hurt if he failed to be re-elected.

Not sure he is overly popular in France at the moment?

Exactly Whitewavemark2 he is worried that he could be a one term president

Only 4 of the 25 Presidents of France have been elected to two terms. I'm sure Macron wants to be elected again but there's no historical precedent for thinking a one-term president is any more of a failure than any of their predecessors. Its not the same as the US.

The fishing rights concern me. As a Guernsey girl born and bred I know how vital the fishing industry is to these little Channel Islands. Boris may forfeit them as a sweetener to the Brexit negotiations. A Government spokesman has said it won't happen but how many U-turns has Boris made since he has been PM?

Exactly Whitewavemark2 he is worried that he could be a one term president

GrannyGravy13

Macron is posturing in the hope that he will be the leading voice/face of the EU once Mrs.Merkel retires next year.

Macron has an election coming up.

Macron has a veto, GG13, whatever his motives might be.

labourlist.org/2020/12/tories-struggling-to-keep-hold-of-red-wall-support-won-in-2019-new-survey-finds/

Macron is posturing in the hope that he will be the leading voice/face of the EU once Mrs.Merkel retires next year.

The Red Wall is collapsing already

I posted a link on the Labour thread recently.

Johnson will give way on fisheries if a deal is to be reached. It'll be a compromise. People will hate him for it...

If Boris gives way on fisheries he will be finished and he knows this, I for one would not vote for him again and the tory red wall in the North would collapse.

If anyone wants to know the rules look at the Withdrawl Agreement we signed last year, that’s the way it’s going to be

Is that in response to my comment about rules David? If so its a bit patronising. Perhaps you can show me the bit regarding personal tax agreements with Canada and Japan once we leave the transition period, for small companies dealing in services with stringent IP restrictions?

The EU won’t want a separate Scotland unless it is a closed border that can be policed and honestly I don’t think that will happen.

A full deal looks unlikely now, we seem to have a practical deal on NI, what we need how is a compromise on fisheries, enough to satisfy the French fishermen so that Calais is not blockaded, a week of that would be disastrous.

Trade and competition rules are unlikely to reach agreement now, the EU are not going to compromise, any deal is going to be to their rules, so negotiations are going to continue, maybe for some time.

If anyone wants to know the rules look at the Withdrawl Agreement we signed last year, that’s the way it’s going to be

It's up to both sides to negotiate a deal and both will be responsible if one can't be reached.

Alegrias2

There is no chance of a good deal for the UK. Johnson can come back waving his bit of paper saying "a deal in our time", but he'll be just as wrong as Chamberlain was. Its already too late.

DH's SME deals with countries all over the world, and we get seriously pi**ed off with all those adverts saying, "The clock's ticking, make sure you're ready". We'd make sure we were ready if the rules had been agreed, but with only 26 days to go, they have not, so we don't know what to prepare for.

As for the fishermen, well they have pulled off the biggest coup in history. Poor dears, they were so hard done by 50 years ago. Well the small fishermen today are already shafted, with Brexit removing their access to markets for 80% of their catch. The whole fishing industry accounts for 0.12% of GDP, and employes 24,000 people. Many of the people of course are from EU countries who have already been discouraged from coming here to work in processing plants. Perhaps I'd have more sympathy but for the fact that the quotas had were set according to fishing rights that had stood for hundreds of years, and that said quotas were then sold off to the highest bidder, including other EU members, so that the fishermen could get rich quick.

That is so right.

History is not going to be kind to this period when it looks at how the U.K. government performed throughout this past decade. It has been a disaster.

And yes the fishermen sold off so much of their quota to get rich quick.

This is why I think other industries must take priority. Romantic ideas of being an island of fishermen etc won’t cut it when we are faced with a the destruction of our farms, car industry, and much else.

We are already facing an economic and employment disaster after covid.

Johnson cannot condemn the country to a no deal.

WRT fishing

Fish stocks were declining before the Common Fisheries Policy was devised. It was devised to restore fish stocks.

From the tory manifesto 1983

We have successfully negotiated a Common Fishing Agreement that provides British fishermen with the greatest advantages in our waters in the industry's history. For the first time since we joined the Community, we now have effective conservation measures, and can look forward to expanding, rather than declining, stocks of fish.

The UK government allowed the sale of quota to all and sundry without any concern on how it would affect the fishing industry.

A reasonable explanation here:

Start
"Well, currently within the UK distribution we have a situation where 79% of fishers have access to 2% of quota and the five largest quota holders hold more than a third of UK quota. This has come about because the majority of our boats and our small boats are not even covered by quota. Quota applies to bigger boats and also over the past 30 or 40 years it’s become a tradable asset.

Quota, which began as something that reflected fishing history, became something that could be bought and sold. As a result of which a lot of it has been bought up by people who don’t fish at all, the so called ‘slipper skippers’ who never go to sea. This has really left a legacy of unfairness, perceived injustice in the sector. And that can be corrected by the UK government.

It could have been corrected by the UK Government within the EU, leaving the EU doesn’t make any difference really, but it’s a great opportunity to have a rethink.

Plenty of people involved in the fishing industry here will say that actually Europe overcomplicated a complicated situation and the best thing for their industry is to get out, and to have our own policy and our own fishing grounds back.

Well, it really is very complicated. The EU is a fantastic complicator of things, it’s true. * But it also needs to be said that the Common Fisheries Policy has started to have effects. It was a slow burn, but it has started to protect and restore fisheries.* The trouble is the industry has changed, it ceased to be an industry that provides the fish that we consume and it’s become very heavily dependent on exports through just in time delivery chains into Europe and they will inevitably be disrupted by Brexit. It’s hard to see how leaving the EU will solve that problem.

In terms of getting our waters back, well it’s very widely observed fish don’t observe boundaries, fish move, there will inevitably have to be negotiations about who fishes what, where. And in those negotiations it’s also the case that the overriding priority will have to be sustainability.
Therefore there will have to be horse, or fish, trading. The objective will need to be on the one hand to really stick to sustainable yields and on the other hand to protect trade.

Given that, what should be the priority as the UK makes its own fishing policy?

The key things are for the UK to remain within sustainable yields, to protect supply chains into Europe, and also to correct a long standing unfairness which is in how quotas are distributed by the UK government within this country, this never really had anything to do with the EU. To that end, we need to have a rethink about how quota is distributed.

End

www.sustainweb.org/news/jan19_frc_briefing_fishing/

biba70 - you can join us up here in civilised, forward thinking, outward looking Scotland, where we know what things are really like. Where we don't think that diverting a thread from its original subject to pour scorn on a country we don't understand is a good thing

I'll put the kettle on.

There is no chance of a good deal for the UK. Johnson can come back waving his bit of paper saying "a deal in our time", but he'll be just as wrong as Chamberlain was. Its already too late.

DH's SME deals with countries all over the world, and we get seriously pi**ed off with all those adverts saying, "The clock's ticking, make sure you're ready". We'd make sure we were ready if the rules had been agreed, but with only 26 days to go, they have not, so we don't know what to prepare for.

As for the fishermen, well they have pulled off the biggest coup in history. Poor dears, they were so hard done by 50 years ago. Well the small fishermen today are already shafted, with Brexit removing their access to markets for 80% of their catch. The whole fishing industry accounts for 0.12% of GDP, and employes 24,000 people. Many of the people of course are from EU countries who have already been discouraged from coming here to work in processing plants. Perhaps I'd have more sympathy but for the fact that the quotas had were set according to fishing rights that had stood for hundreds of years, and that said quotas were then sold off to the highest bidder, including other EU members, so that the fishermen could get rich quick.

They won't biba70 if they take one look at the well documented deplorable mismanagement of the SNP government. Education standards have plummeted, highest drug death rate in Europe and life expectancy similar to countries in sub saharan Africa in some areas. Their understanding of basic economics is absolutely minimal.
Don't be taken in by the Brigadoon brigade. I'm sure EU businesses are harder headed enough to see that.

growstuff

I've given up caring. Whatever we end up with will be worse than we had. The UK will be split and a much worse, small-minded and poorer place. May did her best to salvage something, but she didn't stand a chance with the rabble in the Conservative Party. As ever, I will just get on with my life, but I feel sorry for the legacy we're leaving to our children.

It's the end of the road for Johnson. Goodness knows who we will end up with.

This- in a nutshell.

As for Scotland, the EU countries absolutely love Scotland - and are truly well disposed towards them. I can really imagine lots of business being transferred to Scotland if it got its Independence and joined the EU.

Both sides need to look as though it's been hard won by them both. UK and EU negotiators need to show they've somehow 'won' a great deal. Neither will have but life and trade will go on.
Firecracker123- spot on.

The EU doesn’t want Scotland they have nothing to offer. They would be a liability not an asset. The SNP are deluded.

I agree Luckygirl the UK fishing communities were treated very badly when we entered the EU and the least we can do this time around is to get things right for them.
Macron who is unpopular in France, ( and everywhere I suspect )? is making laughable demands on fishing just to play well with home audiences.
If a deal can’t be done that is reasonable for all sides, then we should call it a day.
I notice the Scottish Nationalists on this thread don’t mind being under the weighty thumb of the EU when it comes to
‘Independence’ which always amuses me.The EU will have your fish before you can say Jack McRobinson ( alongside other things.)