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What I think will happen tomorrow

(490 Posts)
suziewoozie Wed 05-May-21 21:12:21

That the SNP will do well
That Labour in Wales will do well
That Laurence Fox and Shaun Bailey will be humiliated in London
That my local council will stay LD
That Labour will hang onto its Mayors and do badly elsewhere

This is not a difficult prediction

PippaZ Mon 10-May-21 20:22:05

Gajahgran

I think the Labour party needs to listen to voters. Starmer admirably demonstrated the opposite with the pub landlord incident. It's no good them telling voters what they should think whilst refusing to listen and act on what they actually think. There is none so dim as those that will not listen.

I'm not at all sure why they should. Surely each party and its members make an offer to voters (who are not members) and we decide who to vote for?

I have a feeling that "listening" might mean if they tried to appease everyone, that they were in a much worse place. Hearing about issues that people have is probably worthwhile though.

We could try it out. If you had a team from each leadership sitting quietly in front of you what would you say you want. Shall we say that it should be limited to three concise points and anyone can make them? They must be specific and for the whole country - not about who is part of the party machinery, that is for each party to decide. I'll start:

1. Bring taxes on unearned income in line with earned income.
2. Bring in PR
3. Change our education system to be more like the Nordic countries.

varian Mon 10-May-21 15:59:21

The BNP do not need to field a candidate. Their supporters will have enough dog whistle signals which direct their votes - not towards the Labour Party..

lemongrove Mon 10-May-21 14:48:13

How so varian ? Do you think the BNP will be fielding a candidate for that by-election?

Gajahgran Mon 10-May-21 14:42:41

I think the Labour party needs to listen to voters. Starmer admirably demonstrated the opposite with the pub landlord incident. It's no good them telling voters what they should think whilst refusing to listen and act on what they actually think. There is none so dim as those that will not listen.

varian Mon 10-May-21 14:24:42

It will be a very important byelection where the voters in Batley and Spen will choose between a candidate who is the successor of Tracey Brabin and Jo Cox or the sort of people whose warped thinking led to the murder of Jo Cox

PippaZ Mon 10-May-21 13:12:59

Tracy Brabin has been elected as the first mayor of West Yorkshire so there will be a by-election there.

Alegrias1 Mon 10-May-21 11:43:27

You're right Granny23. I was pleased to see that despite that, the SNP candidate increased his vote by 3,000.

Also quite bemused by the fact that none of the media outlets are reporting that the Lib Dems now have 4 seats in the Parliament, down 1 from their 5 last time, and that they are no longer considered a proper party (my words, not the official ones). So they get no seats on committees etc and many fewer opportunities to ask questions, I think.

Granny23 Mon 10-May-21 11:18:39

Alegrias1 If you crunch the numbers for your seat, it is obvious that the Tories and Labour voters "lent" their unionist votes to the Liberals in order to deny the SNP a gain.

Alegrias1 Mon 10-May-21 11:10:37

Willie Rennie of the Lib Dems got returned in the constituency where I live. I am bemused, as he seems to have done nothing at all for the area (happy to be shown otherwise).

But he has been on the news all the time, getting his photo taken in giant deckchairs, playing giant chess, taking a karate lesson.... The candidate who came second, I wouldn't know him if I passed him in the street, although he did leaflet us quite a lot. Having a public profile must make a difference, surely?

lemongrove Mon 10-May-21 11:05:59

trisher

You could say that suziebut then the obvious question is what does that mean which means you have to look at what each has done. And they are so different. So perhaps the conclusion has to be it doesn't matter what you do as long as you do something.Which pretty much means party politics doesn't matter.

Yes trisher you have hit the nail on the head there??
At a local level it’s all about what a Council or a Mayor do for the area ( as long as it’s good things, naturally)?
At a GE there is more to think about.

Callistemon Mon 10-May-21 11:01:55

I thought Mark Drakeford was more like a kindly old-fashioned headmaster, Casdon and that Carwyn Jones would be a hard act to follow, but he is very quietly determined.

He looked better in his casual clothes too!

Casdon Mon 10-May-21 10:03:48

The thing is trisher so is Mark Drakeford (leading his party), and even his big fans, of which I’m one, would never say he’s Mr Personality. He’s quiet and efficient and trustworthy - which is what we need now, even if it’s not as ‘exciting’ as the Labour Party having a Boris clone.

trisher Mon 10-May-21 09:57:41

Devorgilla

Some people have the skills to operate in a national setting and some in a regional setting. Andy obviously works well in G.Manchester. Whether his skills would translate into the larger arena is debatable.
I did have a laugh at the Tory calling Keir dull and boring. Has he never met Gavin Williamson?

Gavin Williamsn isn't leading a political party. Keir is. You can be dull and boring in the background, it isn't a good look for a leader.

Galaxy Sun 09-May-21 14:34:52

Yes some of the failures of labour in the north are without a doubt to do with the failure of the labour council to deliver so I am sure the opposite also occurs.

Devorgilla Sun 09-May-21 14:31:49

Some people have the skills to operate in a national setting and some in a regional setting. Andy obviously works well in G.Manchester. Whether his skills would translate into the larger arena is debatable.
I did have a laugh at the Tory calling Keir dull and boring. Has he never met Gavin Williamson?

janeainsworth Sun 09-May-21 13:57:16

Trisher So what is the common factor? It has to be personality because it's certainly not politics

I don’t think personality in the context of politics = ability to manage strategically or get things done at a local level, which is what Ben Houchen and Andy Burnham have in common.

It’s much more about appealing to people at a superficial level through TV appearances, soundbites, cultivated quirkiness or behaving flamboyantly.

So I think both personality and ability to function effectively as a mayor are independent of party politics and it’s a good thing if the electorate recognise that.

trisher Sun 09-May-21 13:21:49

You could say that suziebut then the obvious question is what does that mean which means you have to look at what each has done. And they are so different. So perhaps the conclusion has to be it doesn't matter what you do as long as you do something.Which pretty much means party politics doesn't matter.

suziewoozie Sun 09-May-21 12:23:05

trisher

suziewoozie

janeainsworth

Trisher Is it perhaps another sign that politics is all about personalities and not policies these days?
If you read the article about Ben Houchen that Growstuff posted a link to, you’ll see that in his case it’s not about personality at all but about the fact that he has made things happen & brought about positive change for Teesside.

I think too that Andy Burnham is far from being just a ‘personality’.

That’s part of what I mean about the role being so interesting and innovative .

But the point is that as far as policies go these two men are at opposite ends of the spectrum. So what is the common factor? It has to be personality because it's certainly not politics.

A fair question and I’m hesitant to answer because I don’t have a mayor but is it that they are doing their jobs well and a significant number believe that and want them to continue?

trisher Sun 09-May-21 12:18:56

suziewoozie

janeainsworth

Trisher Is it perhaps another sign that politics is all about personalities and not policies these days?
If you read the article about Ben Houchen that Growstuff posted a link to, you’ll see that in his case it’s not about personality at all but about the fact that he has made things happen & brought about positive change for Teesside.

I think too that Andy Burnham is far from being just a ‘personality’.

That’s part of what I mean about the role being so interesting and innovative .

But the point is that as far as policies go these two men are at opposite ends of the spectrum. So what is the common factor? It has to be personality because it's certainly not politics.

suziewoozie Sun 09-May-21 11:42:45

janeainsworth

Trisher Is it perhaps another sign that politics is all about personalities and not policies these days?
If you read the article about Ben Houchen that Growstuff posted a link to, you’ll see that in his case it’s not about personality at all but about the fact that he has made things happen & brought about positive change for Teesside.

I think too that Andy Burnham is far from being just a ‘personality’.

That’s part of what I mean about the role being so interesting and innovative .

suziewoozie Sun 09-May-21 11:40:43

Urmstongran

Possibly trisher. Most people I know think he’s a chancer and didn’t vote for him!

Well that probably tells us more about the people you know than it does about AB?

janeainsworth Sun 09-May-21 11:07:41

Trisher Is it perhaps another sign that politics is all about personalities and not policies these days?
If you read the article about Ben Houchen that Growstuff posted a link to, you’ll see that in his case it’s not about personality at all but about the fact that he has made things happen & brought about positive change for Teesside.

I think too that Andy Burnham is far from being just a ‘personality’.

Urmstongran Sun 09-May-21 11:02:45

Possibly trisher. Most people I know think he’s a chancer and didn’t vote for him!

Whitewavemark2 Sun 09-May-21 10:57:00

She must think it would, otherwise why?

suziewoozie Sun 09-May-21 10:51:42

Whitewavemark2

suziewoozie

I think there’s an interesting discussion to be had about elected mayors. When they were first introduced, I was very sceptical but over time I’ve really changed my mind and wish I had one.

I suspect that Johnson is thinking the opposite now?

You know Patel wants to change the voting system for Mayors back to FPTP ? It would be interesting to analyse this lot of results to see if it would have made a difference?