There is a real downside to maintaining stringent precautions for a prolonged period to avoid Covid transmission:
The Guardian 8 July 2021:
"New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’
"New Zealand hospitals are experiencing the payoff of “immunity debt” created by Covid-19 lockdowns, with wards flooded by babies with a potentially-deadly respiratory virus, doctors have warned.
"Wellington has 46 children currently hospitalised for respiratory illnesses including respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV. A number are infants, and many are on oxygen. Other hospitals are also experiencing a rise in cases that are straining their resources – with some delaying surgeries or converting playrooms into clinical space.
........... "The size and seriousness of New Zealand’s outbreak is likely being fed by what some paediatric doctors have called an “immunity debt” – where people don’t develop immunity to other viruses suppressed by Covid lockdowns, causing cases to explode down the line.
"The “immunity debt” phenomenon occurs because measures like lockdowns, hand-washing, social distancing and masks are not only effective at controlling Covid-19. They also suppress the spread of other illnesses that transmit in a similar way, including the flu, common cold, and lesser-known respiratory illnesses like RSA. In New Zealand, lockdowns last winter led to a 99.9% reduction in flu cases and a 98% reduction in RSV - and near-eliminated the spike of excess deaths New Zealand usually experiences during winter.
“The lack of immune stimulation… induced an “immunity debt” which could have negative consequences when the pandemic is under control and [public health interventions] are lifted,” the doctors wrote. “The longer these periods of ‘viral or bacterial low-exposure’ are, the greater the likelihood of future epidemics.”
"New Zealand has reported nearly 1,000 RSV cases in the past five weeks, according to the Institute of Environmental Science and Research. The usual average is 1,743 over the full 29-week winter season. Australia is also experiencing a surge, with overcrowded Victoria hospitals also hit by unusually high rates of RSV.
The I 13 July:
"Hospitals are preparing for a flood of babies and toddlers being admitted with potentially fatal respiratory viruses due to lower immunity caused by successive Covid-19 lockdowns.
"NHS trusts are reporting that they are already seeing a rise in children being hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) due to an “immunity debt” built up over the last 18 months.
"Health leaders are warning that an influx of infants this autumn and winter would place even greater strain on the NHS, which is facing the dual challenge of winter flu as well as rising Covid cases.
"Dr Liz Whittaker, a consultant paediatrist in infectious diseases at St. Marys Hospital, London, said hospitals were “planning now in case there is a surge before the winter”.
" “We didn’t see a single case of RSV last year. We have been monitoring southern hemisphere countries, such as South Africa, which saw very few cases until they reopened and they had a big surge. There is a big worry that the same would happen here,” Dr Whittaker told i.
"Public health officials are expected to issue an alert over RSV to hospitals and parents in the coming weeks."
National treasures. Who would you choose?
