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Will Boris Johnson will break his manifesto pledge not to increase National Insurance in order to pay for social care in England?

(204 Posts)
PippaZ Fri 03-Sept-21 12:33:00

It seems he may well do under plans that are the subject of negotiations between Downing Street and the Treasury.

It seems Downing Street wants a 1 per cent increase (because then they would only be putting up National Insurance by the same amount as Tony Blair back in 2002) while the Treasury wants 1.25 per cent (because that would raise more money). [New Statesman]

Currently, you will have your care (to the grave) paid for if you have less than £23,250 in assets. It appears the cap is to rise to £100,000: making many more people eligible for residential care.

One way or another Government will break its manifesto promise to leave National Insurance, value-added tax and income tax flat or falling. With their majority, it will pass the House of Commons. Of course, they will explain that this is NI in the hope that enough people do not realise that NI is a tax like any other.

I don't know about anyone else thinks, but if this is what they chose to do, isn't it very like TM's "death tax".

Casdon Sat 04-Sept-21 15:45:45

I didn’t say that the number of carers wouldn’t increase if pay is increased PippaZ, of course it would, what there will be though is a remaining shortfall compared with the demand for the services. The fact that people are not applying to go into nursing either should ring alarm bells. The NHS struggles to get healthcare support workers as well, and it’s not just about pay. I’m sorry if it seems negative, but I can only speak as I find, and I was in this field for years - applications have been diminishing over time for all roles in care. I think taking on responsibility for home care would bog the NHS down even further, and post pandemic the emphasis has to be on getting elective and cancer care etc. back on track, not looking after people at home who don’t have nursing care needs.

For what it’s worth I think the funding for Local Government needs to be reviewed completely, and a more devolved system of government introduced. From what I’ve seen it works better in Wales and in Scotland than it does in England at the moment, but when the national governments are reliant on Westminster for the allocation their hands are tied to a large degree.

I don’t have the answers for your question Dinamho - there are plenty of surveys available, mainly saying basically that young people (apart from those who want fame!) want a better work life balance, they don’t want stressful jobs etc. - which care services don’t offer. What I do know is that nursing jobs, even at deputy sister level are no longer what young nurses aspire to, they don’t want the hassle - particularly in district nursing.

Galaxy Sat 04-Sept-21 15:35:10

I am not a young person and have managed residential care for a large part of my career, there is no way I would go back into that type of role now, the hours, the on call, etc, but also I have watched society in general treat those who work in care with indifference or contempt. I dont blame young people for opting out at all.

Dinahmo Sat 04-Sept-21 15:12:25

I should have added that tax rates should increase and we should all get used to paying more and not to buy cheap stuff from China or elsewhere.

Dinahmo Sat 04-Sept-21 15:09:40

I've just been looking on line to try and find figures about young peoples' attitudes towards social care. A survey carried out (admittedly nearly 2 years ago) by the DHSC showed that 67% of people in the age range 18 - 34 would consider working in care homes.

In order for that to happen pay needs to increase, as it should for other occupations. Most supermarket delivery drivers are paid around £10 - £11 per hour although some are paid less. The living wage hourly rate is now £8.91 for workers over 23. It isn't enough and so the shortfall, by way of benefits, is picked up by the tax payer, who are indirectly subsidising the large corporations that pay these wages. And, if course, the shareholders who benefit from increased profits.

Casdon I'd like to know what careers young people actually want (aside from becoming influencers or shows like Love Island)

Doodledog Sat 04-Sept-21 14:49:15

growstuff

PS. Not all people requiring social care are poor - and that's part of the problem.

How is that part of the problem? Care doesn't cost more or less depending on how rich or poor the cared-for are. You can pay for a bigger room or fancier meals, but the actual care costs the same, surely?

Although finance is important, the whole issue of social care for the elderly (not for younger people) includes whether inheritances should be kept intact and passed on to the next generation as unearned income.
I don't see how there can be a fair system that doesn't have an impact on inheritance, which is, in itself, riddled with unfairness. As you know, I would prefer to deal with inequality through taxation rather than means-testing, as that penalises those who are neither rich nor poor and removes choices and chances for those 'in the middle', whilst those at the other ends of the wealth scale are relatively unaffected.

For most people 'in the middle', their house is a major part of their estate, so if they are expected to pay for care it is the house that has to be sold, yet the value of the house is almost entirely dependent on where in the country it is. Despite that, any attempts to deal with the question of fees seems to revolve around caps or ceilings, so those who have already benefited from high house prices continue to do so - whichever method is employed they are likely to have significantly more to leave behind than those who have not seen huge price rises. Cap or ceiling, those people will have to spend until there is hardly anything left, so 'levelling up' is even more of an unrealistic aim (if it was ever a genuine aim, which I doubt).

There are ways of dealing with the differentials in gains made on the sale of housing. They won't happen, as no government would alienate swathes of the SE of the country, but in any case, there is no logical reason why housing should be singled out as a way to pay for social care. It is because a house is the biggest asset for most people, and because it is an asset that is bound up with emotion, security, providing for the family and so on that people feel so strongly that it should be protected.

The fairest way to pay for health, education, care - anything really - is to tax people fairly at the start, so that is taken care of, and then let them spend what is left of their income after tax without let or hindrance. Different parties and governments will have different ideas about how heavily people should be taxed, but the principle should stand.

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 14:36:07

I have looked back Casdon but although I can see you saying we would not increase the number of care workers whatever we do, I see no suggestion from you about how we pay for the Care Service or how we do attract Care workers. It all seems a little negative.

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 14:20:55

Just listening to the answers people are giving to this problem on Any Answers.

Casdon Sat 04-Sept-21 14:03:37

PippaZ It’s not that I don’t believe in a market economy, it’s that I think that the UK is trying to run a model of care which is is not ultimately achievable. As I said earlier, it grieves me to say that. I don’t think that raising pay and introducing a career structure will make what most younger people see as an unattractive role attractive enough to become fully sustainable, because people don’t want that type of job these days. The career structure for carers would presumably lead to becoming a qualified nurse or occupational therapist, and sadly that isn’t what people want either. It’s not just me who is a pessimist, many professionals in both health and social care can’t see a way through this, although huge effort is put into attracting people in.

growstuff Sat 04-Sept-21 13:57:03

PS. Not all people requiring social care are poor - and that's part of the problem.

growstuff Sat 04-Sept-21 13:55:47

MaizieD

*Taxation does not fund spending*.

It's a shame that none of you seem to have got that message because believing that it does allows for all sorts of divisiveness, for governments to evade paying for social 'goods' and for the population to be tolerant of taxation which penalises the poor but not the wealthy.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishis-proposed-national-insurance-increase-24905280

The immense sums of money that the government has showered on its friends and donors for useless PPE and TTT over the course of this pandemic was not borrowed from anyone and has not left the country poor. Nor will it need to be 'repaid'. But the government will claim that it is and will hammer public spending and the poor.

Ahem! I'm very much aware that taxation doesn't fund spending. Nevertheless, decisions have to be made about how money circulates and who gets to have their hands on it. Although finance is important, the whole issue of social care for the elderly (not for younger people) includes whether inheritances should be kept intact and passed on to the next generation as unearned income.

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 13:51:00

So you do or don't think a market economy works Casdon? I can't quite make it out.

My reason for saying the two should be combined is because I do think it would work better for both and for the funding.

vegansrock Sat 04-Sept-21 13:18:30

Perhaps they could use the £350million a week saved by Brexit?

Casdon Sat 04-Sept-21 13:02:33

It was you who mentioned care could be part of the NHS, but I wasn’t reprimanding you PippaZ, just saying that in my opinion one system managed through Health wouldn’t solve the ills of the care sector. Funding is vital of course, but I believe that whether or not taxation, national insurance or any other means is paying for the system, there will still be a recruitment problem - it’s not only a government funding issue.

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 12:51:35

Casdon

I don’t think making the care system part of the NHS will solve many of the issues PippaZ. There just isn’t a raft of people who want to do the caring role now. Better pay and incentives will help, but people don’t want to work unsocial hours, don’t want the responsibilities that go with the job, and will be able to find jobs that maybe pay slightly less but suit them better.

I think the lockdowns have changed the perspective of many younger people too, they’ve seen how dedicated you have to be to be a nurse or cared, and they don’t want that, they want to spend more time with their families. I think there will be a big push to force increased family/friend carers, sadly the alternative for many will be institutional care as it’s less labour intensive. Having worked in health and social care models myself for many years it really grieves me to say that but I can’t see an alternative.

I wasn't really talking about getting people in to do the caring role. The answer is easy to that one. Train (they do), recognise their qualifications, pay them well, give them a good career progression and professional recognition and, again, pay them well.

I was talking about the OP which was about the Care System, Boris Johnson and Tax. Or that was what I though I put when I wrote it.

It's one thing complaining about people going off the topic of the thread set by the OP but its a bit much to repremand me for not sticking to the off-topic subject. smile

So, what was saying was that the government need a plan that encompasses those who are not yet old - often called the young. However, this Never Ready government is unlikely to do that.

MaizieD Sat 04-Sept-21 11:42:32

Taxation does not fund spending.

It's a shame that none of you seem to have got that message because believing that it does allows for all sorts of divisiveness, for governments to evade paying for social 'goods' and for the population to be tolerant of taxation which penalises the poor but not the wealthy.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishis-proposed-national-insurance-increase-24905280

The immense sums of money that the government has showered on its friends and donors for useless PPE and TTT over the course of this pandemic was not borrowed from anyone and has not left the country poor. Nor will it need to be 'repaid'. But the government will claim that it is and will hammer public spending and the poor.

JaneJudge Sat 04-Sept-21 11:22:52

Btw I vote for things that support other people that I don't directly benefit from, it's part of being a society isn't it?

JaneJudge Sat 04-Sept-21 11:22:15

Nezumi, I was going to post similar to you. My daughter is in supported living with another resident and me and the other residents Mum are having to supplement care and have been since the pandemic began. Which is some instances is fine but we don't get paid and have our own lives to finance too. Neither of us rely on benefits and both of us have been made financial vulnerable for decades because of having to care. This is why it really pisses me off when people lazily proclaim 'we should look after our own' angry whilst never having to care for someone with complex disability or illness in their life angry

We both try and make their home as comfortable as possible so it is a nice working environment for their support workers but I was a bit grin that they keep wearing my sliders that I left there for my own indoor shoes there

Visgir1 Sat 04-Sept-21 11:19:18

winterwhite

Times are always exceptional one way or another. I agree it's right that pledges can't always hold when circumstances change and I wish the same view had been held about tuition fees and that that old chestnut can now be laid to rest.

More worrying is the thought of new funding for social care not being ring-fenced and home care eligibility not being broadened and properly funded. The Prime Minister seems interested only in care home costs

In the slightly longer term I'd like to see levelling up achieved by reform of the council tax.

Winterwhite, what are you thoughts on leveling up on Council Tax?

winterwhite Sat 04-Sept-21 11:14:37

Times are always exceptional one way or another. I agree it's right that pledges can't always hold when circumstances change and I wish the same view had been held about tuition fees and that that old chestnut can now be laid to rest.

More worrying is the thought of new funding for social care not being ring-fenced and home care eligibility not being broadened and properly funded. The Prime Minister seems interested only in care home costs

In the slightly longer term I'd like to see levelling up achieved by reform of the council tax.

Casdon Sat 04-Sept-21 11:04:22

I don’t think making the care system part of the NHS will solve many of the issues PippaZ. There just isn’t a raft of people who want to do the caring role now. Better pay and incentives will help, but people don’t want to work unsocial hours, don’t want the responsibilities that go with the job, and will be able to find jobs that maybe pay slightly less but suit them better.

I think the lockdowns have changed the perspective of many younger people too, they’ve seen how dedicated you have to be to be a nurse or cared, and they don’t want that, they want to spend more time with their families. I think there will be a big push to force increased family/friend carers, sadly the alternative for many will be institutional care as it’s less labour intensive. Having worked in health and social care models myself for many years it really grieves me to say that but I can’t see an alternative.

Alegrias1 Sat 04-Sept-21 10:41:40

Sorry, I haven't read every post on this thread, although it is very interesting.

There was a thread yesterday where a care worker was asking for advice about her hours and pay and the first advice she got was to leave the profession and go and work in a supermarket. I'm not criticising anybody but that's what people think, nowadays.

Nezumi65 Sat 04-Sept-21 10:36:15

I agree casdon but I think at least £10 an hour is essential immediately to prevent losing people to supermarkets etc. For the skills involved in working with people who require more complex support (such as my son) I believe £15-£20 would be a fairer wage. That is never going to happen though.

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 10:24:39

Sorry. www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-adult-social-care-market-in-England.pdf

PippaZ Sat 04-Sept-21 10:23:36

The numbers of adults receiving "social care" in 2019-2020 was 839,000. The local authority contribution towards that is £16.5bn. The estimated number of regulated adult social care locations as at March 2020 was 25,800.

The projected forecast increase in adults aged 18 to 64 requiring care by 2038 compared with 2018 was 29% and the projected forecast increase in costs of care for adults aged 18
to 64 by 2038 compared with 2018 was 90%.

The projected forecast increase in adults aged 65 and over
requiring care by 2038 compared with 2018 was 57% and the
projected forecast increase in total costs of care for adults aged 65 and over by 2038 compared with 2018 was 106%

These are the most up to date figures I could find. The one thing that hits you is they are big.

Adult social care (care) covers social work, personal care and practical support for adults with a physical disability, a learning disability, or physical or mental illness, as well as support for their carers. Family or friends provide most care unpaid.

The amount of unpaid care provided affects the extent of formal care required, funded through local authorities, or adults buying their care privately (self-funders).

Eligibility criteria for accessing publicly funded care are set out in the Care Act 2014.

Having had to organise both home care and care in a home for my mother you can tell there is not enough money in the system to pay for it. This means that some who should have help, go without and the NHS also suffers.

I cannot see why this is not made part of the NHS. I appreciate those who have not paid over the years towards a wider National Health/Care Service will have to pay from capital where they can. But this "always unprepared" government should be looking at starting a tax for those still working which would mean you phase out the use of people's capital.

Lovetopaint037 Sat 04-Sept-21 09:52:12

Lincslass

All should pay this tax, for a decent Social Service. all may need it one day. Nothing is free, we all pay for the NHS one way or another. As soon as you start working, a specific tax should be for this Social Services.. Problem started when NI contributions went into general taxation, and not kept separate for health, social services. I have worked since age 15, left school then, never claimed a thing, apart from family allowance, and I’m still paying tax. 60 years on. That money should go into providing care if it’s needed.

Lincslass is entirely correct. When I started going to work in 1957 you believed that NI was to pay for medical care and pensions etc. This should be separated as suggested and then increased when necessary. If we pay an increased tax we should be aware exactly what it is for. Not many believe that just raising taxes is going to solve the problem. As for believing Boris Johnson!!!