OBR has forecast that Brexit will cause at least twice as much harm to the economy as Covid

‘I wish I’d voted to stay in’: Brixham fishers on the cost of Brexit

www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/01/i-wish-id-voted-to-stay-in-brixham-fishers-on-the-cost-of-brexit

Dinahmo

There's at least one of the 25% n this forum. It would be interesting to know the percentage of GNers who have changed their minds since the referendum (either way)

I don't think there were any who'd changed their minds last time the question was asked.

Pity we can't do a poll so people could answer but remain anonymous.

There's at least one of the 25% n this forum. It would be interesting to know the percentage of GNers who have changed their minds since the referendum (either way)

At long, long last the U.K. is waking up to the harm Brexit is doing.

51% recognise that exports to the EU have been badly hit.
53% recognise that prices are rising because of Brexit.
Only 25% think that the economy is better because if Brexit.

Opinion

Urmstongran

Lots of countries struggled during the pandemic. And are now trying to play catch up. Some better than others.

German inflation has soared to its highest level in more than two decades, raising the prospect of higher costs for everything from beer to cars.

Consumer price inflation accelerated at an unprecedented pace of 4.6pc in October, up from 4.1pc in the previous month, according to official data released today.

Who has said that other countries have not struggled during the pandemic?

What is stated is that no countries have had to struggle from a double disaster- the pandemic being by far the lesser disaster.

The OBR is almost certainly right - the best hope for the country is that parliament and the media latch onto the truth for once.

Yet another business sold to Americans. Pimlico Plumbers has been sold to US home services group Neighborly (not a spelling mistake) for a price estimated between £125m and £145m.

Why would an American company want to own a plumbing business? As well as plumbing it does pest control, cleaning and home inspection services and wants to expand its global footprint by moving into Europe.

As Michael Lambert says in his little video, it is too late for the UK to compete with the big tech businesses globally. They have so much money that the likes of Google etc can buy any business they want.

Whatever promises they make, Americans when they take over a business do not abide by them. Remember Cadbury?

Finally, as a result of covid American private equity firms are having a field day buying up British companies. They then take them away from public markets and there are no longer available to other investors. Furthermore there is also some loss of accountability.

We will soon be owned lock, stock (and if not smoking) barrel by overseas companies and we'll become a satellite.

Lots of countries struggled during the pandemic. [Urmstongran Thu 28-Oct-21 19:53:03]

You do love your logical fallacies Urmstongran. This one is "the appeal to popularity" fallacy; young people use it a lot. However, I really can't see how an adult can attempt to legitimise the number of deaths we suffered and the complete inability to plan by using the "everyone's doing it" children's claim.

I don't think that is enough for anyone other than those trying to get one lot of perpetrators off the hook (Johnson and his courtiers) by referring to others. That would allow us both to commit murder!

No I don’t expect this government to do more than muddle along for the next couple of years when the next GE will happen. Unless the Labour Party gets its act together another Tory government will get elected.
If Brexit really does give us freedom we need much more investment in industry, retain our best brains and eliminate the blatant waste throughout the UK

Katie59

“Why should the OBR be wrong,”

Because I want the UK to be successful, although I think Brexit was a bad idea, somehow I want our politicians to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Don’t we all want that

Frankly, not our current government, no. I want them out.

I want the decline into authoritarianism and the sidelining of Parliamentary democracy to stop. I want my country to be respected in the global community. I want the corruption to stop, I want the callous disregard for the poor and the vulnerable to stop. I want the incessant lying to stop.

So, like the Brexiters who were prepared to see the UK destroyed in order to satisfy their perverted desire to leave the EU, I'd be content to go through a period of pain if it means that people's eyes are opened to the utter horror of this government and boot them out.

And, if you think that this government is in any way able to pull us out of the mess we're in I think you are deluding yourself.

David Cameron used to talk of Silicon Fen, based in Cambridge and modelled on Silicon Valley in California, but that's looking increasingly unlikely as an increasing number of brains are being lured to other countries and it's more difficult to attract talented EU nationals.

Dinahmo

Katie59

We have to hope that the OBR was wrong , although I am sceptical that Sunaks vision of a “global technology superpower” will not be realized. Currently we have very little technology manufacturing in the UK, catching up with even Korea is a big ask.
The UK is going to have to change a great deal!.

Sunak's vision of a global technology super power is unlikely to happen. We have the brain power, no doubt about that, but the companies that are developed in the UK are sold off earning millions if not billions to their founders.

One example - ARM - a UK based chip designer was sold to Japanese company Softbank 5 years ago for $32bn. It was sold on in September 2020 to US company Nvidia for $40bn. Nvidia promised that the business would be based in the UK. It has offices in many countries but I haven't yet found whether there is still a development arm in the UK.

You can learn more on this topic by listening to Michael Lambert's talk on You tube on 17 October.

PS I have no objection to the founders making shed loads of money but it would be better if the businesses could stay in the UK

ARM still has a base in Cambridge. I know a number of people who are employed there. However, it could easily move to anywhere in the world and the big money makers aren't in the UK.

Lots of countries struggled during the pandemic. And are now trying to play catch up. Some better than others.

German inflation has soared to its highest level in more than two decades, raising the prospect of higher costs for everything from beer to cars.

Consumer price inflation accelerated at an unprecedented pace of 4.6pc in October, up from 4.1pc in the previous month, according to official data released today.

“Why should the OBR be wrong,”

Because I want the UK to be successful, although I think Brexit was a bad idea, somehow I want our politicians to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Don’t we all want that

I can't believe I'm having to say this again.

Our economy is growing fastest because it fell off a cliff during Covid, much further that any of the others mentioned.

As fast as we may be growing, its because we're further down the hole, and we're still far behind our peers in absolute terms.

Not too optimistic this time around MaizieD.

Richard Hughes, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), acknowledged he had been too pessimistic back in March’s forecasts at the previous Budget, when the economy was starting to move on from lockdown.

Hughes has now ramped up growth predictions dramatically for this year, propelling Britain to the fastest expansion in the G7, which means more taxes flowing into Treasury coffers and welcome breathing space for Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor.

Back in March officials thought the economy would grow by 4pc in 2021. Instead, growth is booming at 6.5pc. Compared to the UK’s major economic rivals, that is ahead of France’s 6.3pc, the US’s 6pc, Italy’s 5.8pc, Canada’s 5.7pc, Germany’s 3.1pc and Japan’s 2.4pc.

That’ll do for me!

Well, those who wanted Brexit should know all about that Urmstongran. As this government comprises those on that side of the vote I think I will listen rather more carefully to the forecasts of the outside experts.

You do know that scientists (including economists) will forecast the most likely outcome, don't you? They will show you the reasoning and the facts behind that reasoning. That allows them to give a proportionate view as in "A" is 60% more likely to happen than "B" unless "X" happens. In that case, the likelihood of "B" increases by "Y" per cent."

Politicians - and particularly those who saw "Leave" as a panacea are Mystic Megs. Their "Trade with the EU will be tariff-free and involve minimal bureaucracy" and "Northern Ireland border will remain 'absolutely unchanged'" or "£350M for the NHS instead of being sent to Brussels", has turned out to be just like something out of a snake-oil salesman's pitch.

No, no Mystic Boris for me or even Mystic Rishi. I am happy to read what the experts have to say, including absorbing the caveats. That's what tells me they know the technical side of their subject. They are not liars that need sycophantic followers to make them feel good. Boris went as far as to through everyone out of the cabinet who couldn't agree with his lies. And, if the experts don't get it right every time, it's not because they are trying to con me but because they were learning another little lesson along the way.

Forecasts and predictions can be wide of the mark.

Indeed they can, UG, and the OBR forecasts are consistently wrong. They are usually too optimistic.

So much so that Sunak had apparently £40 billion more to ‘spend’ in this budget than he anticipated.

That's just budget b*llcks. Did you watch the little video? What it says is that it is always possible to issue more money as long as there a resources available to be bought. The country does not have a finite 'pot' of money.

However, you're welcome to believe Sunak if it makes you happy...

Forecasts and predictions can be wide of the mark.

For example the UK economy is growing far better than predicted months ago! So much so that Sunak had apparently £40 billion more to ‘spend’ in this budget than he anticipated. Apparently he spent (or allocated) half of it in the Budget.

I read these forecasts with a huge pinch of salt nowadays. The Dept of Guess-ology comes to mind!

We seem to have such an old-fashioned idea of business. There is little thought for sustainability, as far as I can see. So much attention on buying, stripping out and off with the "profit" - if you can call it that. We have the brains. We have entrepreneurs. But how often has a great business been sold because it cannot grow in this country?

The idea that the "City" and its everlasting gambling is "business" has just about destroyed our future.

Katie59

We have to hope that the OBR was wrong , although I am sceptical that Sunaks vision of a “global technology superpower” will not be realized. Currently we have very little technology manufacturing in the UK, catching up with even Korea is a big ask.
The UK is going to have to change a great deal!.

Sunak's vision of a global technology super power is unlikely to happen. We have the brain power, no doubt about that, but the companies that are developed in the UK are sold off earning millions if not billions to their founders.

One example - ARM - a UK based chip designer was sold to Japanese company Softbank 5 years ago for $32bn. It was sold on in September 2020 to US company Nvidia for $40bn. Nvidia promised that the business would be based in the UK. It has offices in many countries but I haven't yet found whether there is still a development arm in the UK.

You can learn more on this topic by listening to Michael Lambert's talk on You tube on 17 October.

PS I have no objection to the founders making shed loads of money but it would be better if the businesses could stay in the UK

Katie59

We have to hope that the OBR was wrong , although I am sceptical that Sunaks vision of a “global technology superpower” will not be realized. Currently we have very little technology manufacturing in the UK, catching up with even Korea is a big ask.
The UK is going to have to change a great deal!.

Why should the OBR be wrong, Katie59?

Or, put it another way, when you look at the charts I posted, the OBR's forecasts for import and exports were wrong in March and Nov 2016. The actual figures were worse. Do you think it's likely to be any different, or better, this time?

Bear in mind, of course, that, as the OP points out, yesterday's budget was based on OBR forecasts in other areas

We have to hope that the OBR was wrong , although I am sceptical that Sunaks vision of a “global technology superpower” will not be realized. Currently we have very little technology manufacturing in the UK, catching up with even Korea is a big ask.
The UK is going to have to change a great deal!.

In documents released alongside Mr Sunak's budget the OBR: "Supply bottlenecks have been exacerbated by changes in the migration and trading regimes following Brexit.

"Energy prices have soared, labour shortages have emerged in some occupations, and there have been blockages in some supply chains."

Paul Johnson, director of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, told BBC News: "You will also see in the OBR document evidence of quite a big reduction in trade with the European Union, so the continued impact of the additional trade barriers that we have with the European Union is taking its toll on business as well.”

Mr Johnson also said the OBR's estimated reduction in trade, productivity, and living standards from Brexit was "bigger than the expected long-run effect of the pandemic".

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-damage-rishi-sunak-five-years-ago-b1946833.html

I would guess because the current Chancellor sees his job as propelling Brand Rishi into the top seat Whitewave. Telling us what the OBR think of Brexit wouldn't help.

I think I have come to terms with, i.e., accepted even though I think it's appalling, the fact that those leading this government did not go into power because they are principled and believe that good government is vital to this country. They are in power to stay in power and, if possible, to get more power. They believe they are entitled to these postitions so any anti-democratic actions or "information" that is less than the truth are okay to use as their tools to get there. The Chancellor and the PM are driven by the view that people do not matter, only their power does.

This Chancellor is overtly criticising the governments of "the last decade". Up to now, we have been led to believe this party had his allegiance. While I would agree with him that they have taken us at least halfway to ruin, his dash for power will probably take us the rest of the way.