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The North Shropshire Byelection *edited by GNHQ*

(195 Posts)
varian Sun 12-Dec-21 10:42:17

It now looks possible that the huge majority enjoyed by the disgraced Tory MP Owen Paterson could be overturned by the Liberal Democrat candidate Helen Morgan

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/north-shropshire-by-election-polls-b1973823.html

MayBee70 Thu 16-Dec-21 21:28:08

LibDems are odds on to win on oddschecker….not much sleep for me tonight!

varian Tue 14-Dec-21 16:52:37

Susan56

We will be voting on Thursday.We have never had so many pamphlets,letters and even Christmas cards from prospective candidates.We have had so much from Helen Morgan.

Please support LibDem candidate Susan and please encourage all your local friends and neighbours to do so too.

It might just be possible to rid North Shropshire from being represented by another Tory, but it will be enormously difficult.

The Conservatives may no longer be taking you for granted. They will have been alarmed by the Bookies prediction of a LibDem gain so they will be directing their huge resources towards trying to undermine the challenger.

I do not expect victory, but I hope that the voters of North Shropshire who have been appalled at the behaviour of Owen Paterson, and his leader Boris Johnson, will all vote positively for Helen Morgan.

Dinahmo Tue 14-Dec-21 11:54:11

Varian Thank you for those figures. Although I'm a Labour supporter I have been irritated over the years with some of the policies but more so with those of the Tories. Bring on PR.

varian Tue 14-Dec-21 11:38:58

FPTP almost always leads to a party disliked by most voters getting a majority of MPs on the basis of a minority vote and being able to impose their policies on the country for five years.

It happens on the UK and in Belarus but not in any other European country,

No country which has changed their voting system from FPTP to PR has ever changed back.

PR does tend to lead to coalitions which means that no minority group can impose its policies against the will of the majority and parties learn to co-operate to "get things done".

The 2010 GE resulted in a LibDem/Con coalition where the LibDems were very much the junior partners as the Tories had 306 MPs to 57 LibDems.

This was on the basis of the LibDems having 23% of the vote and the Tories 36% so PR would have led to 162 LibDems and 254 Tories giving a fairer balance.

The Labour Party, with 29% of the vote got 258 MPs. Under PR they would have had 205.

If that had been the case the LibDems could have formed a coalition with the Labour Party, whose policies were more closely aligned. They could have formed a government with a total of 367 MPs, outnumbering the Tories 306.

And arguably the UK would not be in the terrible state we are now.

Kali2 Tue 14-Dec-21 11:21:03

lemongrove

what's funny, or will be perhaps in the next GE, if Labour get in with a good majority you won't hear a peep from anyone (except the odd Lib Dem voter) about how unfair FPTP is.

Well, you'd be surprised- some of us will, for sure.

Which countries have not worked well with coalitions? You can't really make such sweeping statements without backing them up.

Yes, coalitions do lead to strong discussions, and it can take a little time - but it stops this disastrous British thing of swinging from hard right to hard left .. disastrous see-saw politics. It would stop a Governement, as in this case Tories- destroying the NHS, Human right, the independence of Judges, and so much more. A coalition hold back the strings, forces debate and stops swings to extremes, be it on the right, or on the left ...

Jackiest Tue 14-Dec-21 10:58:13

Tulpia

Or we may have had. You can't seriously bring Adolph Hitler into the discussion to push for PR lol. :D

PR tends to lead to no party having absolute control, FPTP often results in one party having control and that way they can get things done. Getting things done is OK providing they are good things but sometime they are not.

It is always good to learn from history as it stops you making the same mistakes again.

Susan56 Mon 13-Dec-21 21:42:23

We will be voting on Thursday.We have never had so many pamphlets,letters and even Christmas cards from prospective candidates.We have had so much from Helen Morgan.

Tulpia Mon 13-Dec-21 21:04:03

Or we may have had. You can't seriously bring Adolph Hitler into the discussion to push for PR lol. :D

Jackiest Mon 13-Dec-21 20:58:03

Adolf Hitler got into power with only 43.9% of the votes. If they had had PR we may not have had the second world war.

Tulpia Mon 13-Dec-21 20:43:55

Totally agree Lincslass

What shocks me as well is women voting for Labour and Libdems who have difficulty understanding the definition of a woman and the Greens going as far as calling women 'non-men'.

When the next general election is held, anyone on here telling me as a Tory voter that I should stay at home, will be told in very precise terms where to go.

How arrogant to assume you are in a position to tell anyone how to or not to vote.

Lincslass Mon 13-Dec-21 20:15:34

winterwhite

Excellent article by Bill Hutton in the Observer today. The country can't afford to blunder on like this.
Supporters of opposition parties should vote Lib Dem on Thursday (as LD and Greens kept quiet or voted Labour in Bexley & Sidcup).
Angry Tory supporters should stay at home.
This is the only way to bring about change from FPTP.
At the same time Labour and Lib Dem leaders should agree a rapprochement on major issues. I think that reasonable.

Are you really telling Tory voters to stay at home, angry or not. Can’t believe I am reading this, oh on second thoughts it’s GN politics so not surprised. Disgusted.

varian Mon 13-Dec-21 19:37:37

Unite have decided to reduce their contribution to Labour Party funds.

I wonder if the money might increase if the Labour Party came out in support of Proportional Representation?

MayBee70 Mon 13-Dec-21 19:29:37

Haven’t Unite decided not to support Labour though? (I lose track to be honest)

varian Mon 13-Dec-21 18:41:38

We have never had a referendum on changing our voting system to Proportional Representation.

There was an AV referendum but nobody believed in that - it does not equate votes with seats.

Tulpia Mon 13-Dec-21 18:30:00

Fortunately a change will require another referendum and I doubt one will be held so soon after the first one.

varian Mon 13-Dec-21 18:24:31

Tulpia

lemongrove

what's funny, or will be perhaps in the next GE, if Labour get in with a good majority you won't hear a peep from anyone (except the odd Lib Dem voter) about how unfair FPTP is.

Totally agree. Labour doesn't want PR any more than the Conservatives.

At the last Labour Party conference more than 80% of LP costituency representatives supported a change to PR but they were defeated by the trades union block vote.

Since then the largest Union, Unite has voted to support PR.

Mollygo Mon 13-Dec-21 18:15:53

That’s what I’ve already said. Only the party not in power seems to want PR. Come on Labour, you’re likely to get in next time so promise that you will make PR elections your first priority when you succeed. You’d increase your voters from GN if you do.

Josianne Mon 13-Dec-21 15:29:42

Go Helen go, IF she is the best person. I would be happy.

Tulpia Mon 13-Dec-21 15:26:22

lemongrove

what's funny, or will be perhaps in the next GE, if Labour get in with a good majority you won't hear a peep from anyone (except the odd Lib Dem voter) about how unfair FPTP is.

Totally agree. Labour doesn't want PR any more than the Conservatives.

Lincslass Mon 13-Dec-21 15:04:49

lemongrove

what's funny, or will be perhaps in the next GE, if Labour get in with a good majority you won't hear a peep from anyone (except the odd Lib Dem voter) about how unfair FPTP is.

Precisely.

lemongrove Mon 13-Dec-21 14:58:24

what's funny, or will be perhaps in the next GE, if Labour get in with a good majority you won't hear a peep from anyone (except the odd Lib Dem voter) about how unfair FPTP is.

lemongrove Mon 13-Dec-21 14:55:42

....and many countries haven't worked well with coalitions either.

MaizieD Mon 13-Dec-21 14:40:10

Tulpia

I support FPTP, voted against the version of RP offered in the referendum a decade ago and would do the same in any future referenda.

I don't believe a government made up of multiple parties is ever as effective as a single party in getting things done.

Well, that's odd because some countries have worked well with coalition governments for years. There are very few countries which still have FPTP

The version of PR that was voted on during the coalition government was a very watered down version. I've no doubt varian can explain further. It certainly wasn't a 'true' PR.

A FPTP has landed us with the worst government of my entire lifetime, with a Commons majority on a minority of the votes cast, I think there's an excellent case to be made for PR...

lemongrove Mon 13-Dec-21 14:38:44

Tulpia

I support FPTP, voted against the version of RP offered in the referendum a decade ago and would do the same in any future referenda.

I don't believe a government made up of multiple parties is ever as effective as a single party in getting things done.

that's exactly it.
a government made up of multiple parties would spend much time arguing and little action.
the present FPTP may not be perfect but has worked well for very many years.

Whitewavemark2 Mon 13-Dec-21 14:30:22

Everything crossed varian ??????