Who do you believe: Sunak or the IMF?

I suggest that energy costs are coming down considerably over the summer months and that this will lead to a drop in inflation. The government is just sitting on its hands over public sector pay rises and once inflation is lower, then public pay demands will be settled at much lower percentages than currently requested. I suggest…..

It doesn’t matter which economists you happen to agree with the same principles apply, if you spend too much or even propose unjustified spending the value of the currency falls.
We saw this in September the Truss plan was uncosted and caused chaos for a few weeks, so it is important to maintain international confidence.
Currencies do collapse and default fairly regularly, and although the UK is not at risk, vigilance has to be maintained or we are all worse off, and the poorest suffer most. There is nothing that the Tories are likely to do to turn the economy round and the debt legacy they leave the next government will be a challenge, so look at 4-5 yrs before we notice much difference. With that prospect the IMF are not likely to be impressed with the UKs economy.

MaizieD

^I don't know why either you or Maizie think you are the only authorities on the economy. I don't think I am anything close to being an authority. However, I know that many don't agree with the litany Maizie follows and that the far left finds it very useful.^

It would be nice to have some good, evidenced, counter arguments to debate to.

I object to the word 'litany' though; it's evidenced based and factual, not a plea to the Almighty..

And will you stop it with that 'far left' rubbish.

It's not 'far left' to point out a different way of approaching the economy using the state's ability to create its own money. In fact, the state's ability to create money has been extensively used by the tories in the past few years, much to the benefit of their friends and donors. Which kind of speaks to my point that MMT is completely apolitical.

I think you need to look at some other economists Maizie.

The fact that you think you can tell me that I must see the spectrum of ideologies from your perspective and stop seeing it from my own says it all. That, and the fact that you feel free to misrepresent what I said (again!) would certainly make me ask why I would want to "debate" with someone with such entrenched views?

I don't know why either you or Maizie think you are the only authorities on the economy. I don't think I am anything close to being an authority. However, I know that many don't agree with the litany Maizie follows and that the far left finds it very useful.

It would be nice to have some good, evidenced, counter arguments to debate to.

I object to the word 'litany' though; it's evidenced based and factual, not a plea to the Almighty..

And will you stop it with that 'far left' rubbish.

It's not 'far left' to point out a different way of approaching the economy using the state's ability to create its own money. In fact, the state's ability to create money has been extensively used by the tories in the past few years, much to the benefit of their friends and donors. Which kind of speaks to my point that MMT is completely apolitical.

MazieD Thanks for posting this link, I've just had a quick skim and it's really interesting. One to read properly, I think and it challenges some well held beliefs in a measured and comprehensible way.

Petera

DaisyAnne

It is based on the entirely wrong idea that a nation is like a household and must balance its books.

I wish you would flag that what you say above is just one view, not a God-given truth. I do agree that the simplistic, Tory view of "balancing the books" is very misleading. It is not a simple question of Tax in, Services out. As I see it, it has far more to do with what the whole economy can afford.

But there, I know you think you are some modern-day Cassandra, cursed, to tell the truth, but never be believed. On the other hand, it could be that you are also simplistic in your description of how the economy works - just as the Tories have been.

Maizie is more than capable of of defending herself, but a nation does not need to balance its books.

You may or may not think that's a bad idea but it's how every nation state works.

I don't know why either you or Maizie think you are the only authorities on the economy. I don't think I am anything close to being an authority. However, I know that many don't agree with the litany Maizie follows and that the far left finds it very useful.

As I said, I agree that we do not - as the far right suggests - have to balance personal taxation, pound for pound, against public services. The general economy does, however, have to be seen to be able to support our outgoings, or there will be what we saw under Liz Truss. Overall what we spend must be seen to be what we can support over a reasonable term.

Maizie does not have to defend herself; you do not need to rush to her aid. This is simply a difference of opinion on a grandparents' forum. It is not a war

Maizie is more than capable of of defending herself, but a nation does not need to balance its books.

I've just asked on the recent Premium Bonds thread how they would feel about the government repaying them the money they had invested in their Bonds. All in the interests of 'paying down' the National Debt, of course. Have to 'balance the books'... 😂😂

From the recently published review of BBC 'impartiality' and Economics

Page 15
Note on household analogies.
^That states don’t tend to retire or die, or pay off their debts entirely, is one way national debt is not like household or personal debt, not like a credit card for example, and why analogies with household debt, or suggestions the government must ‘pay off’ or ‘pay down’ the debt can cause intense debate. Clearly, pithy, accessible metaphors are valuable to journalists and audiences. And ‘paying off’ is a tempting phrase even to those who know the arguments because it seems to express the idea there must be some degree of discipline over debt, even for a state. We just used a household analogy by saying mortgage debt equal to 100%
of income would not usually induce fear. But again, it helps to know that household analogies are dangerous territory, intensely contested, and can easily mislead.^

www.bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/documents/thematic-review-taxation-public-spending-govt-borrowing-debt.pdf

I think the point is that you can post whatever you like as long as it’s within the Gransnet rules, but if you don’t check your facts before posting, or you post from a politically biased source, you can expect to be pilloried by others who take more time and effort to be informed, whether they come from a different, or (often) similar political viewpoint themselves. If you’re sensible you check your links before you post to see what their political bias, if any is - a lot of what is posted as evidence is legitimate, but not all. I don’t think anybody should claim to do research though, it’s fact checking.

And dont get me started on statistics.
Google the top 10 of just about anything, and you will get different answers depending on which website you choose to visit.
The End.

Petera

fancythat

I dont think it was false at all. Far from it.

But again, I dont care whether I am taken seriously or not.

...and your data is?

I expect people to look it up for themselves. If they want to.
Or not if they dont.

Just like others do on all the other stuff and links on here.

On any thread there are many more people reading and not commenting, than commenting I suspect.
People can do whatever they like with all the links and info on threads. So long as in keeping in gransnet rules, obviously.

So many comments on these sorts of threads are biased.
So many links/research is biased.
I should know. I have a close relative working in research.

Not sure what more there is to say.

You do you and I will do me. All within the rules.

To answer the question posed originally I think there is more validity in the IMF forecast than in Sunak's pitch ( basically that was what it was) but when the Labour party gets in at the next election with a healthy majority, we are still going to have an extremely bumpy ride. The reason I'm interested in what is happening in other countries, is because although we are no longer in the EU, their economies are still influential to us. We talk about "levelling up" in terms of different areas of our little country but in the EU, with a common currency, it is on a much larger scale. There is a huge potential for civil unrest in parts of Europe with very high inflation rates (much higher than the UK) and unstable populist governments. Beware the Balkans!
www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/
We've already seen how the war in Ukraine has affected our own economy and the rest of the world with higher energy and food prices so what happens in Europe (and the rest of the world) often has consequences for the UK. Our economy is based on growth but like many other "developed" countries we have a smaller workforce supporting a larger percentage of people who are not working, the numbers just don't stack up, so regardless of who is in government I think we will see a reduction in living standards. On that happy note I'm off to walk the dog.

fancythat

I dont think it was false at all. Far from it.

But again, I dont care whether I am taken seriously or not.

...and your data is?

DaisyAnne

^It is based on the entirely wrong idea that a nation is like a household and must balance its books.^

I wish you would flag that what you say above is just one view, not a God-given truth. I do agree that the simplistic, Tory view of "balancing the books" is very misleading. It is not a simple question of Tax in, Services out. As I see it, it has far more to do with what the whole economy can afford.

But there, I know you think you are some modern-day Cassandra, cursed, to tell the truth, but never be believed. On the other hand, it could be that you are also simplistic in your description of how the economy works - just as the Tories have been.

Maizie is more than capable of of defending herself, but a nation does not need to balance its books.

You may or may not think that's a bad idea but it's how every nation state works.

I dont think it was false at all. Far from it.

But again, I dont care whether I am taken seriously or not.

fancythat

Petera

fancythat

Casdon

ronib

Just to point out that energy costs will double in Germany over the coming months….and as a manufacturing nation this is bound to have a more pronounced effect than on a service economy. I don’t see any mention of that.

Energy prices still won’t be anywhere near as high in Germany as they are in the UK ronib.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics

Havent looked lately personally, but when I looked about 4 months ago, I was surprised to discover that German energy costs were the highest in the world. At least they were on the charts I looked at.

You do understand that it's really bad form to post speculation as fact with the excuse that you can't be bothered to check? It leaves others to do the work. Just to help you here are some data:

www.statista.com/statistics/1267500/eu-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price-country/

www.energy-stats.uk/wholesale-energy-pricing/

Didnt know.

But couldnt care less.

Which is why you're not being taken seriously. You cared enough to post some false claims that you couldn't be bothered to check.

ronib

Petera hope you have not misread my comment that electricity prices are due to double in Germany in the coming months. In the future… your charts 2021-22?

This is reliable information from someone living in Germany who is worried.

ronib I hope you have not misread my comment that was in reply to a claim that in the recent past, not in the coming months Germany's prices were exceptionally high.

My last post was in reply to Maizie

It is based on the entirely wrong idea that a nation is like a household and must balance its books.

I wish you would flag that what you say above is just one view, not a God-given truth. I do agree that the simplistic, Tory view of "balancing the books" is very misleading. It is not a simple question of Tax in, Services out. As I see it, it has far more to do with what the whole economy can afford.

But there, I know you think you are some modern-day Cassandra, cursed, to tell the truth, but never be believed. On the other hand, it could be that you are also simplistic in your description of how the economy works - just as the Tories have been.

Petera

fancythat

Casdon

ronib

Just to point out that energy costs will double in Germany over the coming months….and as a manufacturing nation this is bound to have a more pronounced effect than on a service economy. I don’t see any mention of that.

Energy prices still won’t be anywhere near as high in Germany as they are in the UK ronib.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics

Havent looked lately personally, but when I looked about 4 months ago, I was surprised to discover that German energy costs were the highest in the world. At least they were on the charts I looked at.

You do understand that it's really bad form to post speculation as fact with the excuse that you can't be bothered to check? It leaves others to do the work. Just to help you here are some data:

www.statista.com/statistics/1267500/eu-monthly-wholesale-electricity-price-country/

www.energy-stats.uk/wholesale-energy-pricing/

Didnt know.

But couldnt care less.

No links just my opinion,what we used to produce is now imported from China, Korea, Germany and others whose economy has depended on coal for the past 30 + years. The manufacturing pollution has moved to those countries and saved nothing.

MaizieD sorry but simple logic - if you have not read x how do you know what is in it?
Did you write the article?

ronib

MaizieD what is the point of listing anything when you won’t read it? Like my husband, you know everything!

Except even he goes around muttering about objective truth?

What is the point of reading an article about something I already know, have lived through, and have been bleating on about forever on this forum?

Katie59

ronib

Katie59 wonder what bright spots we need? I hope for a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine but that’s not in the gift of Mr Sunak.
I am thankful though that current government is not pressing for full transition to a green economy. Sri Lanka is a case in point. Could be worse here I suppose….

We have already put ourselves on a severe disadvantage due to the Green Economy, our major competitors are continuing to burn coal. We may feel good about leading the “race to zero” but all we have done is export our pollution and made our own economy less competitive.

It is costing us all a great deal every day

Do you have a source for these assertions, Katie59

A link or two would be appreciated.

MaizieD what is the point of listing anything when you won’t read it? Like my husband, you know everything!

Except even he goes around muttering about objective truth?

ronib

MaizieD did you miss the point about Oxfam wanting to tax the rich in Sri Lanka and the IMF said no?

I didn't even read it, ronib because I already know about austerity and neoliberal economic theory. Jeez, we've been living with it in the UK for 40 years. Haven't you noticed?

It still doesn't invalidate the IMF forecast.

You still seem reluctant to list the economic grounds on which you dispute it...