What's at stake for Rishi Sunak tomorrow?

I don’t think it will change anything for Rishi Sunak myself. I think he’ll put his head down and carry on regardless.

I suppose he doesn't have much choice. Who'd be a politician?

When the tories lost 1000+ sears in the council elections he said it showed “people wanted him to get in with delivering his pledges” or some such delusional tosh. So win or lose it will be the same robotic answer.

Casdon

I don’t think it will change anything for Rishi Sunak myself. I think he’ll put his head down and carry on regardless.

Yes, like the rest of them, he’s not all that invested in the whole ‘making the country better’ thing

vegansrock

When the tories lost 1000+ sears in the council elections he said it showed “people wanted him to get in with delivering his pledges” or some such delusional tosh. So win or lose it will be the same robotic answer.

‘It’s my number one priority; it’s the people’s number one priority’ ad nauseam

No change. The revolving door Party will remain in a mess.

We need one of your sweepstakes FannyCornforth. Piers Corbyn and Laurence Fox are both standing in Johnson’s former seat - who will get the least votes? There are 17 candidates in all just for that seat.

I think if the results are particularly bad, not just in terms of wins and losses, but swings and shares of the votes, turnout, etc, it will hasten Sunak’s demise. The Tories, I am sure, expect to lose the next general election, but will need to calculate which leader will minimise the extent of that defeat, and may well believe, given disastrous losses today, that is no longer Sunak.

Lots of managing expectations going on from both sides.

The Tories may not loose a particular seat but it is the swing that will be crucial.

I haven't checked Casdon but I think there are about 13 standing in Selby and Ainsty. These numbers may cause unexpected results.

Siope

I think if the results are particularly bad, not just in terms of wins and losses, but swings and shares of the votes, turnout, etc, it will hasten Sunak’s demise. The Tories, I am sure, expect to lose the next general election, but will need to calculate which leader will minimise the extent of that defeat, and may well believe, given disastrous losses today, that is no longer Sunak.

Do you think, I can’t see Sunak being ousted whatever the result, surely it would be even higher risk to do that so close to an election?

DaisyAnneReturns

I haven't checked Casdon but I think there are about 13 standing in Selby and Ainsty. These numbers may cause unexpected results.

Maybe so, it’s all very interesting.

Casdon

Siope

I think if the results are particularly bad, not just in terms of wins and losses, but swings and shares of the votes, turnout, etc, it will hasten Sunak’s demise. The Tories, I am sure, expect to lose the next general election, but will need to calculate which leader will minimise the extent of that defeat, and may well believe, given disastrous losses today, that is no longer Sunak.

Do you think, I can’t see Sunak being ousted whatever the result, surely it would be even higher risk to do that so close to an election?

I agree.
Personally cant see there being much appetite from conservatives, in and out of parliament, to replace him. Certainly not at this particular point in time.

Casdon, i think there are two factors to outweigh concerns over another change: the perceived extent of losses, and the longer term impact of that on, eg income and membership; and, if I were a potential leadership candidate, watching safe seats fall under Sunak’s leadership, I’d start to think about my own seat doing the same.

In either case, I could see a route to believing somewhat improved results/my own future that went mid-2024 leadership challenge, followed by ‘trust me, I’m different, and to prove it, I’m calling an early election’.

If I was voting today.. I would go for Independent candidate.
They won't be in Parliament for long, before next GE, so can hopefully make their stamp
I think due to the bounry changes, it will be a Hung Parliament next time.

Siope

*Casdon*, i think there are two factors to outweigh concerns over another change: the perceived extent of losses, and the longer term impact of that on, eg income and membership; and, if I were a potential leadership candidate, watching safe seats fall under Sunak’s leadership, I’d start to think about my own seat doing the same.

In either case, I could see a route to believing somewhat improved results/my own future that went mid-2024 leadership challenge, followed by ‘trust me, I’m different, and to prove it, I’m calling an early election’.

One thing’s for sure Siope, we’ll soon find out!

There seems to be a lot of talk about a 1-1-1 result.

It seems "they" knew what they were talking about.

Just saw Rishi Sunak on the lunchtime news. He did what he always does - bounced about like the Duracell bunny, made some non-committal comment with wide-eyes and an inane grin, then bounced away to get on with his day.

Does anyone else think he sounds just like Blair with his 'fake' estuary English, or is it just me?

Visgir1

If I was voting today.. I would go for Independent candidate.
They won't be in Parliament for long, before next GE, so can hopefully make their stamp
I think due to the bounry changes, it will be a Hung Parliament next time.

I’m expecting a hung parliament next GE too, assuming the Murdoch media back the Tories. So Labour PM in coalition with ???.

I instinctively distrust Sunak because I instinctively distrust anyone who smiles all the time.

Has he got a nervous tick?

varian

I instinctively distrust Sunak because I instinctively distrust anyone who smiles all the time.

Has he got a nervous tick?

Just for you varian. Don’t worry, be happy by JOE.

youtu.be/OvtSomaXKE8

Casdon

We need one of your sweepstakes FannyCornforth. Piers Corbyn and Laurence Fox are both standing in Johnson’s former seat - who will get the least votes? There are 17 candidates in all just for that seat.

Piers Corbyn or Laurence Fox...

What a choice, eh?

Good job there are more candidates to choose from!