Labour and the Triple Lock

The ‘Red Wall’ may now be leaning Labour, but whether or not Starmer’s party do indeed recapture these old heartlands has different immediate consequences in terms of electoral fortunes for the two parties vying to lead the next government.

For Labour, failing to win back the constituencies across the North and Midlands which fell to Johnson’s Conservatives – and indeed to May in 2017 – would spell defeat. Without splashing red paint back across the ‘Red Wall’, there is no feasible path to a parliamentary majority for Labour. There are not enough winnable constituencies in Scotland, Wales, and the South of England to get Starmer into Number 10.

The Conservatives know that while the ‘Red Wall’ is crucial for Labour’s chances of governing, the same is not true for them.

Indeed, Labour need to push beyond the ‘Red Wall’ to win the election, charting a course of wins which extends south and into those former bellwethers and traditional battlegrounds of British politics. Labour need to win over ‘Stevenage Woman’.

U.K. in a changing Europe.

The age at which Britons are more likely to choose the Tories over the Labour opposition has risen to 70 from 39 at the last general election in 2019, according to the JL Partners survey shared with Bloomberg. It comes as a separate poll published Thursday by Ipsos gave Sunak the joint-lowest approval rating for a UK premier, and the Tories their lowest ever voting intention share in a data series stretching back to 1978.

Bloomberg

Students might support Labour but many change their views once they get into the real world of work.

This also holds true for the graduate vote

The Labour Party continues to hold the greatest support among students, with 62% of those highly likely to vote saying they would vote Labour in an immediate election. This has risen since Keir Starmer became leader and is significantly higher than the same period last year (in August 2019 38% of students supported Labour)
The Conservatives are the next most popular party among students, but support is down to 12%. The other major political parties achieve low levels of support: the Green Party at 9%, the Liberal Democrats at 8%.

HEPI

So given that it is true that Muslims vote Labour, the question is why?

Sorry - here

There are 20 constituencies in the UK that have an electorate comprised of more than 30% Muslims. All of them elected a Labour MP in 2019. At the top of the list is Birmingham Hodge Hill, where 62% of the population identifies as Muslim.

In Bradford West 59% of the population is Muslim, in Ilford South, 44%, and in Leicester South, 32%. Rochdale ranks 18th in the list of the 20 constituencies with the largest proportion of Muslim residents. Interestingly enough, just under 19% of the electorate in Holborn and St Pancras, Keir Starmer’s constituency, identifies as Muslim.

There are currently 199 Labour MPs in the House of Commons – a slight reduction from the 202 who were elected in 2019. A bare majority in the House of Commons requires 326 MPs and a working majority more like 346. The party clearly has a mountain to climb to achieve that, even with a lead of around 20% in current polls.

So Starmer will certainly be asking whether Labour can still expect to win seats with a high proportion of Muslim voters in a way that it has done in the past, given what happened in Rochdale. He continues to equivocate over the deaths in Gaza and still follows the government’s line on the conflict, despite it being essentially a colonial war.

The Conversation.

Some figures regarding the Muslim vote

maddyone

Let me get this right;

Muslims vote Labour
Better educated people vote Labour
People aged 50-70+ vote Labour
The red wall - might vote Labour

A lot of assumptions there I think. Interesting analysis though.

Not assumptions based on data.

Do you want the figures?

Let me get this right;

Muslims vote Labour
Better educated people vote Labour
People aged 50-70+ vote Labour
The red wall - might vote Labour

A lot of assumptions there I think. Interesting analysis though.

MaizieD

Can you see any reason why the gap might suddenly narrow to the point of being a threat to Labour, Wwmk2?

Well I think that there are areas of concern.

The Muslim vote is probably not as certain as previously because of Gaza and Starmer’s various less then supporting statements, although he has changes position recently.

I don’t think the red wall vote is a done deal either.

But saying that - I live in the south and there is a definite sea change in voting patterns here, towards Labour. Largely due to the better educated graduates moving out into the more rural areas.

The grey vote really is getting less and less important to the Tories. Whereas previously, the voter tended to become more conservative after say the age of 50, this has now risen (and continues to rise) to the age of 70+.

I expect most people paying tax at 20% would rather have 80% of the increase in their pension than no increase at all. With inflation falling as it has, the triple lock will be far less expensive to maintain than has been the case of late.

Can you see any reason why the gap might suddenly narrow to the point of being a threat to Labour, Wwmk2?

MaizieD

P.S With the polls fairly consistently placing Labour with a 20point plus lead over the tories I'm really not sure that scrabbling for a few more voters is a particularly worthwhile exercise...

Complacency 😮😮😮

I'm hoping that too, MaisieD. The tax threshold should be raised so that thousands of pensioners don't have to start paying tax again in old age. I hope Labour have plans for this.

If the tax rate doesn’t change then any rise will be taxed all to soon!

P.S With the polls fairly consistently placing Labour with a 20point plus lead over the tories I'm really not sure that scrabbling for a few more voters is a particularly worthwhile exercise...

Germanshepherdsmum

Do they have a choice if they want votes?

I think at the moment that, although it 'might' bring over some of the 'grey' vote it could be unpopular with younger voters who see us boomers as hogging more of the national wealth than they think fair.

There are other things to consider, too.

If Labour doesn't do anything about the frozen personal allowances then retaining the triple lock could bring more pensioners into the income tax bracket; that old old trick of give with one hand and take away with the other.

Or Labour might propose do something for younger voters which would damp down resentment of 'the old'. We just don't know, as yet.

My small savings and state pension has taken me over the personal tax threshold so I am paying income tax. I honestly think that the government are trying to make OAP's lives as miserable as they possible can. I have decided not to vote in the elections as I think they are all as bad as each other. I also object to local politicians, cold calling at my door wanting to give their speel. Why is it that people who have saved for a rainy day so they can look after themselves and not claim benefits are always hit the hardest. I honestly think I would have been better off if I had no savings because by the time I have paid for dental treatment (now private as no NHS dentists in my area) and optical treatment I am no better off than the people who are on benefits. I used to have a free prescription but I have found that many of my medication has become buy over the shelf so I now have to pay fot it even though I cannot do without it.

Why don't they just get rid of us and have done with it.

They can promise what they like. The country has an aging population and a low birth rate. Ultimately we can't afford to keep paying a state pension for everyone.

I'm not sure how the Australian pension system works but I'm sure well off retired people don't get anything from the state.

My children range from early 40s to late 20s they expect to work until they drop.

I apologise for living so long.

I agree the grey vote is needed but it would be deemed unaffordable.

Even if it’s in the manifesto it could be ditched if they decide it’s unaffordable. Labour are after the grey vote, which traditionally been more inclined to vote Conservative.

I have my doubts that it will be retained.

Hmm...let's wait and see eh ?

Do they have a choice if they want votes?

Good