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By-election and local authority results.

(213 Posts)
Whitewavemark2 Fri 03-May-24 06:52:54

It appears that the polls which are showing massive results for labour are so far correct.

The by-election in Liverpool was won by Labour with a 26% swing. That is huge!

The local elections are showing the same sort of swing away from the Tories.

Casdon Sat 04-May-24 13:28:58

Galaxy

I imagine it varies by area, in my region independent usually means conservative.

Conservative with a small c, or Tories? I don’t think ours are Tories, they tend to be ‘issues’ people, eg passionate about the place they live, looking out specifically for farmers, or whatever. They vote on an issue, not with one party all the time.

Cossy Sat 04-May-24 13:22:57

winterwhite

I think the none-of-the-above option would be a cop-out and the all-as-bad-as-one-another argument is plain silly.
Presumably people don't want anarchy and therefore need at least to decide which of the candidates/parties they think least bad.
Most politicians are decent, honest and hard working, get little thanks and are remunerated at about the minimum wage.

I’m sure there are many good, honest, decent and hardworking MPs, they never seem to make their way to the front benches sadly.

No MPs are working purely for the equivalent of the living wage, just by looking at their basic income plus their very generous allowances and expenses, their pretty long “breaks”, and many of them have second income streams, so it’s a pretty daft, and to be fair, insulting comment to make, particularly in the light of a cost of living crisis.

Galaxy Sat 04-May-24 13:19:17

I imagine it varies by area, in my region independent usually means conservative.

Wyllow3 Sat 04-May-24 13:11:43

There are more Independent seats won than Green. wondering how the "Independent" will translate into the GE. They are a completely mixed bunch.

Wyllow3 Sat 04-May-24 13:08:50

Regionally our Labour Mayor was re-elected by an enormous majority, not unexpected

BBC saying on it

"The win was expected, but the real analysis of the results for Labour will be in those places that voted Conservative for the first time in the 2019 Westminster elections.

Labour’s figures suggest they’ve done well there as well – boosting their hopes of taking them back at the next general election."

Ie, will the Red Wall seats return to Labour - so far it's a qualified yes, but new players are now in the arena.

Anniebach Sat 04-May-24 12:58:31

He will win

Whitewavemark2 Sat 04-May-24 12:55:08

Labour retains Rotherham.

So far those London boroughs declared there is a 5% swing to Khan.

If he wins it will be an historic third term.

Rosie51 Sat 04-May-24 12:17:29

winterwhite

I think the none-of-the-above option would be a cop-out and the all-as-bad-as-one-another argument is plain silly.
Presumably people don't want anarchy and therefore need at least to decide which of the candidates/parties they think least bad.
Most politicians are decent, honest and hard working, get little thanks and are remunerated at about the minimum wage.

Who said 'all as bad as one another'? When there are only two or three candidates and they all agree on a deal breaker for the individual, you really think that person should vote for one of them? No MP ever thought or acknowledged any vote for them wasn't an approval vote, but one of 'least worse option'

As for earning at minimum wage....... the basic annual salary for an MP from 1 April 2024 is £91,346. MPs also receive expenses to cover the costs of running an office, employing staff, having somewhere to live in London or their constituency, and travelling between Parliament and their constituency.

Using the London living wage, not minimum wage, an MP would need to work 7026 hours a year to earn that salary. That works out at 135 hours a week, working 52 weeks a year. There are only 168 hours in a week. Think you've gone way over the top in your exaggeration of their renumeration!

winterwhite Sat 04-May-24 12:03:31

I think the none-of-the-above option would be a cop-out and the all-as-bad-as-one-another argument is plain silly.
Presumably people don't want anarchy and therefore need at least to decide which of the candidates/parties they think least bad.
Most politicians are decent, honest and hard working, get little thanks and are remunerated at about the minimum wage.

growstuff Sat 04-May-24 11:51:06

if all the people who were against Brexit had voted, we wouldn’t be in this situation, but they didn’t.

I know that, but nobody can turn the clock back. What happened is in the past and all anybody can do is make the best of the present and the future.

Pittcity Sat 04-May-24 11:32:23

I live in a constituency where the Tory MP is not standing at the next election. The boundaries have been redrawn to remove the areas with Labour Councillors and a "celebrity" candidate has moved into the area.
The other parties are fielding long standing local councillors...I will vote for one of them...question is which one?

Mollygo Sat 04-May-24 11:28:37

Growstuff, if all the people who were against Brexit had voted, we wouldn’t be in this situation, but they didn’t.
In Liverpool, I always voted Liberal because they got things done (pavements, litter, gritting the roads, maintaining parks etc.) and because David Alton really seemed to listen to voters concerns.
Now it’s more difficult. Our local party who get things done are the Greens, but since they already lie and support one lie, it’s hard to see them as trustworthy for anything else.

growstuff Sat 04-May-24 10:59:49

Mollygo

The turn out being low is a worry. I’m hoping that that isn’t a prediction for the GE. I understand not knowing who to vote for, because our choices were dire.
Like others on here, there are deal breakers that I won’t accept.
The problem is, as with Brexit, the group/party or issue who get the most votes carry the day. The percentage winning in Brexit was tiny, but that tiny percentage was over a million votes. Over a million fewer people either voted remain or didn’t vote.

I don't think Brexit was an issue during the last election in deciding how people voted. If it had been, the LibDems would have picked up nearly half of the votes (which is what Jo Swinson thought). Johnson and the Conservatives were pushing for Brexit. Corbyn was always for Brexit (despite his trying to fudge the issue).

I've nearly always voted LibDems (mainly because I live in a rock solid Conservative constituency and it doesn't really matter). I've voted for manifesto commitments.

However, if I lived in a constituency which was a two-way fight between Conservative and Labour, I'd vote Labour and would have done in 2019. I was (and still am) 100% against Brexit, but I don't think there's that much between the Conservatives and Labour now on the issue. I suspect that as memories of the referendum fade, pragmatic solutions will be found to overcome many of the problems Brexit has caused, whichever party is in power.

Dickens Sat 04-May-24 10:57:50

growstuff

Dickens

nanna8

They just announced on our evening news here in Australia that the Conservatives will be wiped out under Rishi Sunak at the next election. Why don’t they ditch him and make a last bid effort to win a few seats? I don't particularly like him and wouldn’t vote for him if I could but it is not good for the country to have no opposition and be totally ruled by Labour or anyone else come to that.

I'm not 100% sure that Sunak is the sole reason why voters are turning against the party, so swapping him for another leader may not have the desired effect. It's not as if there's a pool of untapped talent to choose from, either.

Such a move would divide the party, too. The country is in a mess - it would be better if government addressed those concerns that affect the majority of people rather than focus on the chaos and in-fighting that would inevitably follow the ousting of Sunak.

I'm not 100% convinced either. All the scandals, public services in disarray, the Covid "contracts for mates" and "one rule for them and another for us" and the realisation that the Conservatives haven't achieved much after 14 years in power is sinking in.

I think if the Conservatives were to change leader now, it would be the last straw for many. It really would confirm that it's a political party which doesn't have any direction.

I don't know how Sunak sleeps at night. I can't imagine why he wanted to be leader/PM. If I were him, I'd already be in conversations with banks and financial organisations to go back to my old job.

...All the scandals, public services in disarray, the Covid "contracts for mates" and "one rule for them and another for us" and the realisation that the Conservatives haven't achieved much after 14 years in power is sinking in.

Nail hit firmly on head!

growstuff Sat 04-May-24 10:48:56

Dickens

nanna8

They just announced on our evening news here in Australia that the Conservatives will be wiped out under Rishi Sunak at the next election. Why don’t they ditch him and make a last bid effort to win a few seats? I don't particularly like him and wouldn’t vote for him if I could but it is not good for the country to have no opposition and be totally ruled by Labour or anyone else come to that.

I'm not 100% sure that Sunak is the sole reason why voters are turning against the party, so swapping him for another leader may not have the desired effect. It's not as if there's a pool of untapped talent to choose from, either.

Such a move would divide the party, too. The country is in a mess - it would be better if government addressed those concerns that affect the majority of people rather than focus on the chaos and in-fighting that would inevitably follow the ousting of Sunak.

I'm not 100% convinced either. All the scandals, public services in disarray, the Covid "contracts for mates" and "one rule for them and another for us" and the realisation that the Conservatives haven't achieved much after 14 years in power is sinking in.

I think if the Conservatives were to change leader now, it would be the last straw for many. It really would confirm that it's a political party which doesn't have any direction.

I don't know how Sunak sleeps at night. I can't imagine why he wanted to be leader/PM. If I were him, I'd already be in conversations with banks and financial organisations to go back to my old job.

Rosie51 Sat 04-May-24 10:39:54

It might concentrate a few minds if politicians were forced to accept the reality of the mood of the country.

This absolutely. No party thinks any of the votes for them were because they were the 'least worse option'. I've never not voted, but occasionally it really was choosing the least worse option, when I'd have been truer to myself if I could have voted 'none of you'.

Dickens Sat 04-May-24 10:26:38

Casdon

Rosie51

Casdon I could only agree to compulsory voting if there was a box marked "none of the above" and that result was also recorded. As it currently stands writing that on your ballot paper would just get recorded in with the spoiled ballots, not recorded as a conscious decision you couldn't back any of those standing.

I agree, there’s no reason I can think of not to have a box for not agreeing with any of the parties - it would be a good gauge of the mood of the country, far better than the current apathy.

Totally agree with both of you.

It might concentrate a few minds if politicians were forced to accept the reality of the mood of the country.

Dickens Sat 04-May-24 10:24:40

nanna8

They just announced on our evening news here in Australia that the Conservatives will be wiped out under Rishi Sunak at the next election. Why don’t they ditch him and make a last bid effort to win a few seats? I don't particularly like him and wouldn’t vote for him if I could but it is not good for the country to have no opposition and be totally ruled by Labour or anyone else come to that.

I'm not 100% sure that Sunak is the sole reason why voters are turning against the party, so swapping him for another leader may not have the desired effect. It's not as if there's a pool of untapped talent to choose from, either.

Such a move would divide the party, too. The country is in a mess - it would be better if government addressed those concerns that affect the majority of people rather than focus on the chaos and in-fighting that would inevitably follow the ousting of Sunak.

Casdon Sat 04-May-24 10:14:56

Rosie51

Casdon I could only agree to compulsory voting if there was a box marked "none of the above" and that result was also recorded. As it currently stands writing that on your ballot paper would just get recorded in with the spoiled ballots, not recorded as a conscious decision you couldn't back any of those standing.

I agree, there’s no reason I can think of not to have a box for not agreeing with any of the parties - it would be a good gauge of the mood of the country, far better than the current apathy.

LizzieDrip Sat 04-May-24 09:48:18

I totally agree with your posts Dickens and Cossy. Blimey, I’m agreeing with everyone this morning - what’s happening! I’m sure someone will come along to put a fly in the ointment shortlywink

Galaxy Sat 04-May-24 09:45:20

I would say MN has done more to champion womens rights than most.

LizzieDrip Sat 04-May-24 09:43:35

Agreed Flappergirl. Not so sure about the ‘Mumsnetter Party’ though🙈

Cossy Sat 04-May-24 09:43:16

nanna8

They just announced on our evening news here in Australia that the Conservatives will be wiped out under Rishi Sunak at the next election. Why don’t they ditch him and make a last bid effort to win a few seats? I don't particularly like him and wouldn’t vote for him if I could but it is not good for the country to have no opposition and be totally ruled by Labour or anyone else come to that.

Why? More chaos and economic instability? Another PM with no mandate? No thank you!

We’ve been entirely “ruled” by the Tories for 14 years for all the good it did them and us!

Dickens Sat 04-May-24 09:39:28

Grantanow

The Tories will hang on till late 2024. The ones who will lose need time to find other lucrative jobs and want to collect their MP's pay for as long as possible while racking up their pensions. Some of them may even get put up to the Lords with lavish daily expenses.

The Tories will hang on till late 2024.

I wonder too if that is what they will do - for the reasons you say.

It doesn't bode well for the nation as a whole though if they do, does it?

I've been speculating that, in the meantime, they will attempt to marshal their voter-base by focusing on yet more populist issues.

Immigrants and the 'sick-note-culture' are reliable dog-whistle calls, but those cards are already being played.

All the while the NHS and social services crumble brick-by-brick, the cost-of-living increases - albeit at a slower rate than previously - and knife-crime is almost a daily occurrence in our towns and cities.

... of course, none of these matters will be addressed, even though they probably command the attention of a huge majority of the population. Committing to any initiatives, plans or policies, is a long-term requirement - and would also involve public spending which to a party ideologically wedded to the small-state model is a no-no.

I think they'll scorch the earth making it even more difficult for the next government. What have they to lose?

... unless, of course, come the GE, the troops rally because the Tories manage to unearth something to totally distract voters from voting for Labour... and I'm sure they're looking under the bed, etc.

I'm very disheartened by it all.

flappergirl Sat 04-May-24 09:36:09

I too think voting should be compulsory. A poster on Mumsnset said we are lucky to have the right to vote but luck had nothing to do with it. Brave men and women fought and sometimes died or were deported for the right to vote.

Many posters on Mumsnet also seemed determined to spoil their ballot paper to "send a message" which is an absolutely fatuous notion. Scribbling on your ballot paper gives no indication of what, if anything, you are protesting about. You could be dissatisfied with one issue or many, or you could be drunk, mentally ill or doing it for a laugh. It is meaningless and will do nothing to bring about change.

I suggested they form a party and run the country themselves if they found it impossible to elect any of the numerous parties or independents.