Europe’s voting for the right just as we're turning left!

Well it will be an extremely interesting few months. We all know what is going to happen in the UK, but what of the countries of Europe?

Hope NATO stays together?

Europe has the same problems, different solutions. After a couple of years the UK will veer to the right no doubt.

The left have on the whole embraced identity politics and completely lost touch with those they purport to want to help. The idea of social class/poverty is not a regular feature of the discourse. They treat a large part of the electorate with disdain. They are losing many people like me who have been centre left all our lives.

I don’t see that Galaxy. Who is it that is going to vote Labour this time if it’s not the centre left - the majority is large, and it’s not because of Tory or further left voters?

As I understand it from the French media and my Twitter feed:
1. If Macron had gone with the status quo, very little could have been done in Parliament as there was no clear majority from the last elections and the right would continue to block legislation.
2. The far right is very disorganised, the timing is totally unexpected and very short and Bardella is not impressive.
3. There will be a much better turnout for a general election.
4. My personal opinion after 20 years here: The French love a protest but are often more conservative when it comes to it. Hence "we don't like Macron, but we will vote for him" in the last Presidential election.
5. Our village voted 30% for Bardella. Hrumph. 😨
6. It is a bold move and very risky.

So let’s see the results so far. It is true that on the whole the European Union member countries have moved to the right, but the picture is actually more mixed.

Already far right - Hungary - but Orban got about 8% less than expected.

Moved to the right - France, Germany, Italy and Austria.

Holland did not make the move to the hard right as expected.

The centre won in Spain and Poland

Socialists won in Sweden, Latvia and Malta

Greens won in Denmark, Croatia, Latvia and Slovenia.

The centre ground then with the centre right, the Greens and socialists won 462 of the 720 seats. Ursula Von Leyden, will need to be supported by them all to retain her platform.

So overall it is true that the hard right has made ground, but the centre holds.

Yes but that's not the shift elsewhere Casdon, and I think Starmer has a term not to mess up, and that's not an easy ask considering the circumstances. Brexit, Trump, etc etc all signs but people just wander around saying the electorate is stupid and act surprised when it keeps happening.
I do think Starmer is quietly ruthless which may help.

Hardly a surprise. I think the young people have thought about their futures and decided they don't like the prospect of more dictatorship. They want to be in control of their own lives. There is also a concern about their identity.
Hopefully this will mean a return to Europe as it used to be.

The prediction is that centre right will do better than La Pen’s party. Either way, it’ll be some sort of coalition.

Somebody made the point on the news last night that these new MEPs have no unity. They are not a 'party'. Once they get to Brussels they will be diluted.
I think Macron has done better than he is given credit for and that he has done the right thing even if a risky one. Fingers crossed.

Obviously Macron calling a French parliamentary election has no impact on what happens in Brussels. The problem with the election yesterday was that there were 27 lists (causing a crisis of space outside the smaller Mairies!) and apart from Bardella and the far right it is hard to see a pattern.
I think in France it is fundamentally a protest vote. Rise in cost of living, a series of catastrophic weather events, poor harvests and a feeling of despair in many places. As to what will happen on July 7th I really don't know. The campaign will be hugely important.

Interestingly the new Parliament will commence the day before the opening ceremony for the Olympics. A world stage for any protests.

Is a labour landslide a given here on July 4th?
David Cameron, who called the Brexit referendum, was surprised by the result perhaps as horrified as some of us and stood down soon after.

There is a FRexit party putting up candidates in France.

Nothings a give grammaretto

I’ll settle for getting rid of the Tories.

It’s frightening what’s happened in France. This is the way things are going in Europe, glad we are out. I’m afraid when you don’t listen to peoples concerns, in this case it’s migration, this is what happens. It horrible.
I don’t trust Labour, they are more blue now, but one thing will be the same as they will get in as people want a change after Brexit, Covid etc. they are a total disaster. Conservative need a strong leader, leaving D Day was not thinking things through but he apologised, he knows it’s over. Starmer would only bet on something if it was a one horse race as he doesn’t appear to know his left from his right. It’s taken almost wild horses for him to voice an opinion as he waits to see what is in fact working out so it’s a safe bet. It will be with a heavy heart that I go to the ballot box but my conscience would not let me vote for a man that was a staunch supporter of Cotbyn, he’s flaky.

Allsorts

It’s frightening what’s happened in France. This is the way things are going in Europe, glad we are out. I’m afraid when you don’t listen to peoples concerns, in this case it’s migration, this is what happens. It horrible.
I don’t trust Labour, they are more blue now, but one thing will be the same as they will get in as people want a change after Brexit, Covid etc. they are a total disaster. Conservative need a strong leader, leaving D Day was not thinking things through but he apologised, he knows it’s over. Starmer would only bet on something if it was a one horse race as he doesn’t appear to know his left from his right. It’s taken almost wild horses for him to voice an opinion as he waits to see what is in fact working out so it’s a safe bet. It will be with a heavy heart that I go to the ballot box but my conscience would not let me vote for a man that was a staunch supporter of Cotbyn, he’s flaky.

Labour, Conservative, as one commentator said, two cheeks etc.
People want change, not more of the same old for the next five years. I love how many on here think Labour is in for a huge majority, they be,but if they carry on in the same way as the last five years, and looks like they will, they'll be out on their ears without a doubt.
Like many I dread a far left Labour Gov, Raynor is an acolyte of Corbin, so his policies may get in through the back door.

People do realise that Macron is not standing for election, that he will remain president till 2027, when he will have served 2 terms, which is the maximum. He can overrule the French parliament anyway, so it s a bit of posturing.

Let's not overstate the position: although the Far Right parties have made progress the EU Parliament (which frankly has very limited powers in the EU) is still dominated by the centre parties able to work in informal coalition. However, the position in Germany is not so good with the increasing presence of AfD which is attracting younger voters. And France will likely have a Far Right Assembly majority soon if Macron's gamble fails. In the UK we shall have a centre left Labour government inheriting a dreadful economy with the risk that voters will turn Right at the next election (a possibility for uncertainty and reversals which will undermine potential deals with the EU and inward investment possibilities in the next 5 years).

Wyllow3

......and yes! its another Telegraph O/P....

It’s also on the front page of the Times.

Witzend

Wyllow3

......and yes! its another Telegraph O/P....

It’s also on the front page of the Times.

There's not a lot of difference between the two these days

Regardless of what happens in Europe I think the Tories have burned their bridges in the UK for years to come. If Labour don’t make progress, the likely UK outcome at the election in five years time is a coalition in my opinion. This isn’t a radical country, which is why we had backlashes against Corbyn, then the current Tory Government. The new dawn here might be the Lib Dem’s, or it might be a new centre party, or possibly if there is a clear out of the right it could be a new Tory centre right reincarnation. it won’t be Reform.

It is interesting to see on social media that some people who support Reform are worried about the result in France. 🤔 Not sure I understand that.
I have just seen it suggested that it is possible that Macron is thinking that if LePen and Bardella win the parliamentary election, he will appoint them as government and the likely consequence is that like most populists they will not be good at governing, leaving his party in a stronger position for the Presidential election in 2027. The constitution does not allow him a third term.

I live in Germany . It’s a lot to do with our coalition . Our Democracy is in danger 🙈

When there is economic downturn there is historically a turn to the right. It freezes my blood to see a headline such as the above. For goodness sake remember the dire economic state of Germany in the thirties that let to the embracing of Hitler. Don’t forget he was liked by many of our aristocrats and entertained by them. The hard right just gets harder the more encouragement they get until you realise the country is controlled by a ring of steel. I hope and pray that Labour voters get out and vote despite whatever rain, storm, inconveniences befall them. Never believe the result is in the bag.